For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -50 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -19 · Value -76 · Sentiment 0 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $30.41 vs $76.11 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Microchip Technology Incorporated
MCHP NASDAQMicrochip Technology Incorporated is a semiconductor company that designs and supplies microcontrollers, analog and mixed-signal products, and related embedded control solutions. The company’s portfolio centers on microcontroller units that serve as the “brains” of countless electronic systems, from consumer electronics and industrial equipment to automotive and communications applications. In addition to microcontrollers, Microchip Technology offers analog and interface products, memory solutions, and connectivity devices that help engineers build reliable, power-efficient, and cost-effective designs. The firm operates through its Semiconductor Products and Technology Licensing segments, providing both standard and custom solutions to original equipment manufacturers and other customers worldwide. Its products are widely used in embedded systems that require long product lifecycles and robust performance. Headquartered in Chandler, Arizona, and founded in 1989, Microchip Technology plays a significant role in enabling embedded control across industrial, automotive, aerospace, consumer, and data center markets, supporting a broad ecosystem of developers with tools, software, and technical resources.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.22
Total Equity: $6.43B
Shares: 545,200,000
Total Debt: $5.50B
Cash: $240.30M
EBITDA: $1.18B
Total Debt: $5.50B
Cash: $240.30M
Revenue: $4.71B
Revenue: $4.71B
Revenue: $4.71B
Total Equity: $6.43B
Tax Rate: 15.9%
Equity: $6.43B
Total Debt: $5.50B
Cash: $240.30M
Current Liabilities: $1.14B
Long-Term Debt: $5.50B
Total Debt: $5.50B
Total Equity: $6.43B
Shares: 545,200,000
Shares: 545,200,000
CapEx: -$91.10M
Shares: 545,200,000
Stock Price: $76.08
Net Income: $230.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:39pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.8B | $8.4B | $7.6B | $4.4B | $4.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.4B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| Gross Profit | $4.4B | $5.7B | $5.0B | $2.5B | $2.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.4B | $2.2B | $2.2B |
| Operating Income | $1.8B | $3.1B | $2.6B | $296.3M | $490.1M |
| Net Income | $1.3B | $2.2B | $1.9B | $-500,000 | $230.0M |
| EBITDA | $3.0B | $4.1B | $3.5B | $1.0B | $1.2B |
| EPS | $2.33 | $4.07 | $3.52 | $-0.01 | $0.22 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.27 | $4.02 | $3.48 | $-0.01 | $0.22 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:19pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $317.4M | $234.0M | $319.7M | $771.7M | $240.3M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $2.4B |
| Total Assets | $16.2B | $16.4B | $15.9B | $15.4B | $14.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.4B | $3.1B | $2.5B | $1.2B | $1.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $7.7B | $5.0B | $5.0B | $5.6B | $5.5B |
| Total Liabilities | $10.3B | $9.9B | $9.2B | $8.3B | $7.9B |
| Total Equity | $5.9B | $6.5B | $6.7B | $7.1B | $6.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $4.2B | $5.8B | $6.8B | $5.8B | $4.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:39pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.8B | $3.6B | $2.9B | $898.1M | $962.1M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$370.1M | -$486.2M | -$285.1M | -$126.0M | -$91.1M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B | $3.1B | $2.6B | $772.1M | $871.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $997.0M | $0 | $994.7M | $2.0B | $0 |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | -$911.5M | -$975.7M | -$984.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$425.6M | -$945.8M | -$982.1M | -$96.5M | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | $37.4M | -$83.4M | $85.7M | $452.0M | -$531.4M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:39pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +23.7% | -9.5% | -42.3% | +7.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +28.1% | -12.3% | -50.6% | +10.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +68.5% | -17.5% | -88.5% | +65.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +74.1% | -14.8% | -100.0% | +46,100.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +37.5% | -16.1% | -69.7% | +12.7% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 11:50am (4d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-22 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-23 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-24 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-22 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-22 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-24 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-22 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-22 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-21 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-21 | $0.44 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-21 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-19 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-17 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-21 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-18 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-19 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-18 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-18 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-23 02:43Even the bull case prices 88% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 96%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($76.11) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +17% | 10.7% | $9.51 | -88% |
| Base — stabilizes | +11% | 9.3% | $7.16 | -91% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +6% | 7.9% | $5.30 | -93% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -2% | 5.8% | $3.31 | -96% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 15:46The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue has gone $970M → $1.08B → $1.14B → $1.19B → $1.31B → $1.48B over six quarters, a 53% recovery off the March 2025 trough. Net margin has expanded from -15.9% to +15.5% across those same six quarters. Annualizing the June-26 quarter gets you ~$5.9B revenue and ~$920M net income — that's a $15 forward EPS-implied run-rate roughly, putting forward P/E in the low-40s, not 346. The trailing 346x is a mechanical artifact of the loss-year averaging into a recovery, and the anomaly flag correctly calls this out. Free cash flow of $871M against a $41B market cap is ~2.1% FCF yield on trailing — thin, but on the recovering run-rate FCF should approach $1.3-1.5B, or ~3.5% yield.
The synthesis verdict of $22 fair value is, frankly, absurd on inspection. It appears to be anchoring on trailing depressed earnings and extrapolating downturn margins forward — but the quarterly cadence is screaming cyclical recovery, not secular decay. And the Market Forces claim of "near-certain debt restructuring" is unsupportable: $5.5B debt against $6.4B equity, current ratio 2.09, $962M OCF covering interest many times over, and a 2.4% dividend still being paid. This is not distress; it's a normal levered semi balance sheet mid-cycle. That signal is wrong and should be discounted heavily. Meanwhile the Pre-Flight read (traditional cyclical mid-recovery) and the Narrative Economics read (moderate durability, cyclical risk) are the more honest framings — they contradict the synthesis, and the models are talking past each other.
The contrarian case that actually matters is different from what's been offered: peak FY2024 revenue was $7.63B with $2.57B operating income (34% op margin). Current run-rate is ~$5.9B with implied op margin recovering through the low-20s. If you believe MCHP re-attains prior peak — $7.5B revenue, 30%+ op margins, $2B+ net income — then at $41B market cap you're paying ~20x peak earnings for a cyclical, which is not cheap for a business whose 5-year revenue CAGR is negative 21% and whose end markets (industrial, auto MCU) face genuine Chinese competition from GigaDevice, WCH, and others eating the low-end 8/32-bit MCU stack. The real bear case isn't distress — it's that normalized earnings power is $1.3B not $2B, and $76 is priced for a full round-trip that won't happen because share has permanently leaked. Insider activity is all awards, zero open-market buying, which is neutral-to-mildly-negative for a stock supposedly 3x undervalued by the DCF.
I dissent from the synthesis $22 target — it's a garbage number driven by trailing-earnings myopia and a phantom balance-sheet crisis. But I don't endorse the bull case at $76 either. Fair value on normalized ~$1.5B earnings power at a 22-25x multiple (quality MCU franchise, cyclical, moderate growth) is $33-37B market cap, or roughly $60-68/share. Current price embeds a clean cycle recovery plus some secular premium; the recovery is real and visible in the quarterlies, the secular premium is debatable. I'd call this modestly overvalued, not egregiously so, and would want a pullback to the high-$50s to get interested. The trajectory is too strong to short and the valuation too stretched to buy — a genuine "wait" setup, not a "avoid distress" setup as Market Forces claims.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say Microchip is in a cyclical recovery, not in distress, and the market is valuing that recovery expensively but not insanely if you underwrite a return toward prior-cycle earnings. The most important data point is the quarterly progression: revenue has climbed from $970.5M in March 2025 to $1.48B in June 2026, a 52% rebound in five quarters, while net margin has gone from -15.9% to +15.5%. That kind of operating leverage is exactly what you expect from an analog/MCU franchise coming off an inventory correction. The annual figures still look ugly because fiscal 2026 captured the trough: $4.71B of revenue versus $7.63B in 2024 and $8.44B in 2023, with net income collapsing to $230M from $1.91B and $2.24B. But if I focus on exit rate rather than trough-year averages, the business is clearly healing. A $1.48B quarter annualizes to roughly $5.9B of sales already, well above the fiscal 2026 base, and profitability is recovering faster than the headline P/E implies.
That is why the “345x P/E” is more trap than signal. With earnings near trough, P/E becomes almost useless; the same is true of the payout ratio over 4x. Free cash flow is the more credible anchor here: $871M in fiscal 2026, against just $91.1M of capex, shows this remains an asset-light semiconductor model with real cash generation even in a downcycle. The balance sheet is not pristine, but it is also nowhere near the “near-certain debt restructuring” fantasy in the model output. Debt of $5.50B against $962.1M of operating cash flow and $6.43B of equity is manageable for a company that has historically earned multi-billion-dollar operating income at cycle peak. The current ratio above 2.0 also does not describe a liquidity emergency. So the bearish machine conclusion gets one thing right — valuation is rich on depressed fundamentals — but gets the capital structure badly wrong.
Where I land is that the stock price is already discounting a lot of the normalization. At $41.3B market cap, investors are paying about 8.8x trailing sales and roughly 47x trailing free cash flow. That can work for a fast grower with secularly expanding margins; Microchip today is neither. Even if revenue recovers from $4.7B back to something like $6.5B-$7.0B over the next couple of years and net margins normalize to, say, 20%-25%, you get earnings power of roughly $1.3B-$1.75B. On that basis the stock is trading at something like 24x-32x normalized earnings for a mature, cyclical semiconductor company. That is not absurd, but it is full. The market seems to be valuing MCHP as a high-quality franchise near the middle of its rebound rather than near the beginning, and the raw data do not support a bargain case at $76.
The best argument against this view is the speed of the recovery. Sequential revenue growth has been strong every quarter — $1.08B, $1.14B, $1.19B, $1.31B, $1.48B — and net income has inflected even harder, from a loss of $154.6M to a profit of $229.8M. If that trajectory continues for just another few quarters, trailing metrics will look dramatically better very quickly, and today’s 39x EV/EBITDA could compress without the stock moving. Bulls would also rightly point out that gross margin held at 57.7% even in a terrible year, which speaks to franchise quality; this is not a commodity memory business. And compared with the 2023 peak revenue of $8.44B, the company is still far from fully recovered, so paying up before the cycle fully turns can be rational. I weigh these points less heavily because the stock already reflects a substantial share of that recovery while still requiring a fairly generous normalization case to look cheap.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If Microchip can sustain revenue above $1.5B and push quarterly net margin into the 18%-20% range over the next two quarters, that would imply a materially stronger earnings snapback than I am underwriting and would justify a higher fair value. Likewise, evidence that annualized free cash flow is moving toward $1.5B+ while debt trends down from $5.50B would support a more constructive multiple. On the other hand, if this rebound stalls around the current $1.4B-$1.5B quarterly sales level, then $76 will look like a recovery story priced as a near-complete normalization.
Grok Reading
The quarterly tape is the clearest signal in this briefing, and it contradicts both the classification models and the most alarmist market-forces language. Microchip has printed six straight sequential revenue increases from the March 2025 trough of $970.5M through June 2026 at $1.48B, with net margin swinging from −15.9% to +15.5% and the latest quarter alone delivering $229.8M of net income. Annual revenue bottomed at $4.40B in FY2025 and has already climbed to $4.71B in FY2026; the current run-rate annualizes near $5.9B. Gross margin held at 57.7% through the cycle, free cash flow remains $871M against only $91M of capex, and operating cash flow of $962M covers the capital structure. This is a classic semiconductor inventory and demand washout followed by a visible recovery, not a broken franchise. The rule-based “high_growth_profitable” tag is simply wrong given a −21.4% revenue CAGR and peak-to-trough collapse from $8.44B to $4.40B; the correct frame is mature cyclical MCU/analog with sticky embedded design wins.
Where the quantitative stack goes badly off the rails is the distress narrative and the $22–$30 composite fair value. Net debt is roughly $5.26B against $871M of FCF—about 6×, serviceable for a company that just printed mid-teens net margins again and still carries a 2.1 current ratio. Nothing in the cash-flow statement supports “near-certain debt restructuring” or severe equity dilution. A $22 price implies roughly $12B of equity value, or about 14× trough FCF and under 2× sales on a business that historically earned $1.9–$2.2B of net income at cycle peaks; that is liquidation math, not going-concern math for a 58% gross-margin embedded-control franchise. The 346× trailing P/E is an artifact of near-zero FY2025 earnings and should be ignored; EV/sales of 9.8× and EV/EBITDA of 39× on still-depressed earnings are the real valuation questions, and they are rich.
The strongest case against a constructive recovery read is exactly those multiples and the distance still left to prior peaks. Even after the rebound, FY2026 revenue is 44% below FY2023’s $8.44B and operating income of $490M is an 84% haircut from the $3.12B peak. At a $41.3B equity value and ~$46.5B enterprise value, the market is already capitalizing a large fraction of mean-reversion plus the secular electrification/IoT story. On mid-cycle assumptions—say $6.5–7.0B of revenue and high-teens operating margins—you still clear only low-to-mid 20× earnings and mid-single-digit sales multiples at best, leaving limited room if the cycle stalls, China share pressures intensify, or automotive/industrial OEM inventories correct again. The 2.4% dividend yield is real support, but a 4.3× payout ratio on trailing GAAP earnings shows the distribution is running ahead of reported profits even if FCF covers it today. Narrative intensity is strong and the “platform monopoly in embedded control” story explains why the stock sits at a 200%+ premium to austere DCFs; that premium is the risk if the cycle disappoints.
I would flip toward outright cheap only if two or three more quarters extend the $1.3–1.5B revenue run-rate toward a credible path back above $7B with operating margins re-expanding through the high teens, or if net leverage is cut below 3× FCF while the multiple compresses toward 5–6× sales. I would turn decisively more negative on a sequential revenue stall below $1.3B, gross margin erosion under 55%, or any refinancing that meaningfully dilutes equity. Until then the recovery is genuine and the balance-sheet panic is overstated, but $76 already discounts a smooth climb back toward prior-cycle earnings power that is not yet earned.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Microchip is a scaled analog/microcontroller business that until FY2024 posted elite economics — 67.5% gross margin and 36.9% operating margin on $8.44B revenue in FY2023, with $3.13B FCF. The cycle then broke hard: revenue fell to $4.40B in FY2025 (-42% peak-to-trough), operating margin collapsed to 6.7%, and net income essentially went to zero (-$500K). FY2026 shows early stabilization — revenue up to $4.71B, op margin recovering to 10.4%, net income back to $230M, and FCF rebuilding to $871M. Gross margin at 57.7% is still ~10 points below peak, indicating under-absorbed fixed costs rather than structural damage.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants - is any near-term wall driving urgency?
- Inventory position and channel days - is the demand recovery real or shipment-driven?
- Customer/end-market concentration (industrial, auto) - where is the weakness concentrated?
- Whether the FY2026 dividend/buyback posture reflects sustained capital return or preservation mode
- Any convertible or preferred issuance embedded in the debt stack
The e2e composite fair value is $30.41 and the signal-adjusted FV is $22.04, implying roughly -60% to -70% downside from $76.11. Even the most generous of the three methods, anchored P/E at $36, sits about 53% below the market price. The EPV floor of $11.46 confirms that on current depressed earnings there is no support anywhere near today's quote. High earnings quality argues against haircutting further, but it does not close a gap this wide. The business is a good analog/MCU franchise mid-trough, but with $5.26B net debt and only $230M of TTM net income, the market is paying a full-cycle multiple on trough-plus earnings. To justify $76 you need FY2023-caliber margins (67.5% GM, 36.9% OM) to return AND persist, plus mid-single-digit growth, plus debt paydown - a stack of 'and's rather than 'or's. That is the definition of priced for perfection in a cyclical name. I would not call this a short, because the franchise is real and cycle recoveries can overshoot, but on price-vs-deserved-value math this is clearly rich.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Book-to-bill and inventory days trend in latest 10-Q for evidence the cyclical trough is actually behind
- Management commentary on gross margin recovery cadence back toward 60%+
- Debt paydown pace and any refinancing terms on the $5.26B net debt
- Guidance for next-quarter revenue and any updated capital return posture
MCHP is caught between two real forces. On the tailwind side, the market is telling a durable platform-monopoly story around embedded control, and the AI/data-center overlay (98% DC growth, Micron PCIe Gen 6 tie-up, raised billion-dollar guide) gives the name a fresh narrative hook that resonates in a risk-on tape. Beta 1.74 means when the S&P is calm and bid, MCHP gets amplified lift, and the recent 7.1% short-term move vs -21.4% long-term confirms sentiment is trying to turn. On the headwind side, the reaction function is broken: three straight earnings/news beats produced red closes (-3.9%, -4.35%, -3.57%), which is textbook exhausted-buyer, story-priced-in behavior. The bear framing (DCF $22 vs $76 price, 'classic tech bubble rerun', Chinese competition, cyclical commodity dynamics) is circulating, and yesterday's Zacks-style 'Buy, Sell or Hold?' piece flags valuation and supply constraints as the ceiling. Macro is mildly hostile at the margin (10y 4.69%, market PE 25.7) and a 1.74 beta magnifies any risk-off flinch. Net: the narrative is strong but the tape is refusing to reward it, and analyst tone is turning cautious on valuation. Pressure roughly cancels, with a slight lean to headwind because the 'sell the news' pattern is the more actionable signal.
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
This is a textbook semiconductor inventory cycle turning, not a secular re-rating. The world's embedded-control demand — industrial automation, electrification, edge sensing — keeps compounding slowly, but the swing factor here is fab utilization and channel weeks-of-inventory, both of which are recovering from unusually depressed levels. Two forces cap the upside: sovereign-subsidised Chinese MCU/analog supply that permanently reprices the low end, and a macro backdrop (10y 4.69, flat curve, headwinds) that slows the industrial and auto capex the recovery leans on. Meanwhile the broader category has just entered a slowdown phase, so MCHP is recovering into a cooling tide rather than a rising one. The correct mental model: earnings power is being restored toward, not beyond, its prior normal.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, MCHP was $76.08. We expect it to be $64.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $45.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.