For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +27 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 100 · Value -32 · Sentiment 29 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $196.15 vs $393.35 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT NASDAQMicrosoft Corporation is an American multinational technology company that develops and provides software, cloud services, devices, and digital solutions worldwide. Headquartered in Redmond, Washington, it is organized around three major business segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. Through these segments, Microsoft delivers enterprise productivity platforms such as Microsoft 365 and Dynamics, collaboration tools like Teams, and business applications that serve corporate, government, and small-business customers. Its Intelligent Cloud segment is centered on Azure, a comprehensive cloud computing and AI platform supporting infrastructure, data, and application services for global organizations. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses the Windows operating system, Surface devices, Xbox gaming ecosystem, and search and advertising services. Microsoft Corporation plays a central role in business digitization, cloud migration, cybersecurity, and data analytics, making it a key provider of foundational technology across information technology, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics markets. Founded in 1975 and operating in numerous countries, the company is a core component of the global technology and enterprise software landscape.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 13.64
Total Equity: $343.48B
Shares: 7,465,000,000
Total Debt: $60.59B
Cash: $30.24B
EBITDA: $150.53B
Total Debt: $60.59B
Cash: $30.24B
Revenue: $281.72B
Revenue: $281.72B
Revenue: $281.72B
Total Equity: $343.48B
Tax Rate: 17.6%
Equity: $343.48B
Total Debt: $60.59B
Cash: $30.24B
Current Liabilities: $141.22B
Long-Term Debt: $57.59B
Total Debt: $60.59B
Total Equity: $343.48B
Shares: 7,465,000,000
Shares: 7,465,000,000
CapEx: -$64.55B
Shares: 7,465,000,000
Stock Price: $393.35
Net Income: $101.83B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 29, 2026 12:03am (25d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $168.1B | $198.3B | $211.9B | $245.1B | $281.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | $52.2B | $62.7B | $65.9B | $74.1B | $87.8B |
| Gross Profit | $115.9B | $135.6B | $146.1B | $171.0B | $193.9B |
| Operating Expenses | $45.9B | $52.2B | $57.5B | $61.6B | $65.4B |
| Operating Income | $69.9B | $83.4B | $88.5B | $109.4B | $128.5B |
| Net Income | $61.3B | $72.7B | $72.4B | $88.1B | $101.8B |
| EBITDA | $79.2B | $96.0B | $99.5B | $124.6B | $150.5B |
| EPS | $8.12 | $9.70 | $9.72 | $11.86 | $13.70 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.05 | $9.65 | $9.68 | $11.80 | $13.64 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 23, 2026 7:35pm (31d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $14.2B | $13.9B | $34.7B | $18.3B | $30.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $184.4B | $169.7B | $184.3B | $159.7B | $191.1B |
| Total Assets | $333.8B | $364.8B | $412.0B | $512.2B | $619.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $88.7B | $95.1B | $104.1B | $125.3B | $141.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | $59.7B | $58.5B | $54.7B | $58.2B | $57.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $191.8B | $198.3B | $205.8B | $243.7B | $275.5B |
| Total Equity | $142.0B | $166.5B | $206.2B | $268.5B | $343.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $57.1B | $84.3B | $118.8B | $173.1B | $237.7B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 29, 2026 12:03am (25d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $76.7B | $89.0B | $87.6B | $118.5B | $136.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$20.6B | -$23.9B | -$28.1B | -$44.5B | -$64.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $56.1B | $65.1B | $59.5B | $74.1B | $71.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $3.8B | $9.0B | $2.8B | $58.7B | -$2.5B |
| Dividends Paid | -$16.5B | -$18.1B | -$19.8B | -$21.8B | -$24.1B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$27.4B | -$32.7B | -$22.2B | -$17.3B | -$18.4B |
| Net Change in Cash | $648.0M | -$293.0M | $20.8B | -$16.4B | $11.9B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 29, 2026 12:03am (25d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +18.0% | +6.9% | +15.7% | +14.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +17.1% | +7.7% | +17.1% | +13.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | +19.3% | +6.2% | +23.6% | +17.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +18.7% | -0.5% | +21.8% | +15.5% |
| EBITDA Growth | +21.2% | +3.7% | +25.2% | +20.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 23, 2026 7:35pm (31d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-20 | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-17 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-15 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-16 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-17 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-18 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-16 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-17 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw tape: MSFT is running at a ~$332B revenue run-rate (annualizing the last four quarters: 76.44+77.67+81.27+82.89 = $318.3B, ~18% above FY25's $281.7B). Recent YoY quarterly growth: Q3-FY26 rev of $82.89B vs $70.07B a year prior = 18.3% — that's *accelerating*, not decelerating as the revenue confidence signal claims. Earnings tell a stranger story: the Dec-2025 quarter printed a 47.3% net margin ($38.46B NI on $81.27B rev) — an ~1100bp jump that reverted to 38.3% the next quarter. That's almost certainly a one-time item (equity investment mark-up, likely OpenAI-related, or a tax benefit), not underlying earnings power. Normalizing it out, trailing NI is closer to $120–125B, not the ~$125B headline. FCF is where the bull case gets uncomfortable: $71.6B on $136B of OCF means capex of $64.5B — a 47% reinvestment rate for a "mature earner." FCF CAGR of 9.7% while revenue CAGR is 15.3% shows the AI capex cycle is actively compressing cash conversion.
On the models: the "mature_earner" archetype (0.76 conf) is wrong or at least incomplete — mature earners don't spend 23% of revenue on capex and don't grow the top line 18% YoY at $330B scale. The pre-flight "multi-segment-platform" read is better. The synthesis "High Conviction Required" verdict is directionally right but soft; it dodges the number. Let me put a number on it: at $393 and $2.92T market cap, on trailing FCF of $71.6B, that's a 2.45% FCF yield. Reverse-DCF at a 9% discount rate needs ~7% perpetual FCF growth to justify — plausible but not cheap. On earnings, 28.8x trailing P/E against 18.6% earnings CAGR gives a PEG of ~1.55, which is *reasonable* for this quality (29.7% ROE, 28.3% ROIC, 68.8% gross margin) but not a gift. The market-forces module failing to run is a real gap — I'd want the competitive read on Azure vs AWS growth deltas before sizing up.
The contrarian argument the models underweight: the capex-to-FCF divergence. Microsoft spent $64.5B in capex in FY25 vs $55.8B in FY24 vs $28.1B in FY23 — capex has 2.3x'd in two years while FCF grew only ~24% over the same span. If Azure AI revenue doesn't inflect to justify this buildout, FCF growth stays sub-10% while the market extrapolates 15%+. The 47.3% margin quarter is a red flag for earnings quality noise — strip it out and the trailing four-quarter net margin is closer to 39%, not the 44% headline math suggests. Also worth flagging: the insider data is nonexistent (one 32-share F-InKind is noise), and the debt figure of $60.6B is understated versus reality — Microsoft has ~$97B in long-term debt + leases on the full balance sheet; the $60B number looks like a partial slice. That's a data quality issue, though at $343B equity and $136B OCF it's immaterial to the thesis.
Where I land: I dissent mildly from the synthesis's "high conviction required" framing — that's a non-verdict. The number I get: fair value on a blended DCF (7% FCF growth 10yr, 3% terminal, 9% WACC) is roughly $340–360. At $393, you're paying a ~10-15% premium to fundamentals for the AI optionality — which is a *reasonable* premium for a platform with 28% ROIC and this competitive position, but not a bargain and not a fat pitch. The narrative layer's "anchored/moderate/durable" read is correct — this isn't Tesla-style story stock, but it's also not trading at a discount. Growth is genuinely accelerating (18% YoY on $80B+ quarters is remarkable), but so is capex, and the FCF conversion is what will get tested in FY27 when the AI infrastructure spend needs to show ROI. I'd want to see either (a) a pullback to $340–350 for a full position, or (b) evidence in the next two prints that Azure AI-driven revenue is scaling faster than capex — either would resolve the ambiguity.
GPT Reading
What jumps out to me is not “AI optionality” first, but operating scale with a visibly changing cash profile. Revenue has gone from $168.1B in FY21 to $281.7B in FY25, a 68% increase in four years, while operating income rose from $69.9B to $128.5B and net income from $61.3B to $101.8B. That is not a mature utility; it is a still-expanding platform compounding at elite absolute dollars. The latest four quarters sum to about $318.3B of revenue, so the business is currently running roughly 13% above FY25’s level, not explosively above it. Quarterly growth has re-accelerated versus the 2024 base, with revenue up from $64.7B in Jun-2024 to $82.9B in Mar-2026, but the more important point is that margins remain structurally extraordinary even while capex is surging: annual gross margin is 68.8%, operating margin 45.6%, net margin 36.2%. A company can absorb $64.6B of capex and still produce $71.6B of free cash flow and $136.2B of operating cash flow because the underlying engine is unusually strong. The investment question is therefore not whether Microsoft is healthy; it plainly is. The question is whether today’s valuation already capitalizes most of the next leg of AI monetization before free-cash-flow conversion recovers.
On valuation, I land a bit more negatively than Opus. At $393, the stock trades at 28.8x earnings, 10.4x sales, and roughly a 2.45% FCF yield on FY25 free cash flow. For a business with a 15.3% revenue CAGR and 18.6% earnings CAGR, that is not absurd, but the cash-flow mismatch matters more than the income statement right now. FY25 revenue grew 14.9% year over year, net income grew 15.5%, but free cash flow was only $71.6B against capex of $64.6B; that means nearly half of operating cash flow is being reinvested. If that spend works, Microsoft can grow into the multiple. If it merely sustains current competitive position, the stock is at best full. I do not need a bearish operating thesis to say the shares are expensive enough to require either a lower entry point or clearer evidence that capex intensity peaks soon. My fair value range is closer to $330-350 than $340-360 because I put more weight on depressed present cash conversion and less on giving immediate credit for AI returns that are still being funded.
I agree with Opus on several specifics. Opus argues the “mature_earner” label is incomplete; correct. A company growing from $245.1B to $281.7B in one year while spending $64.6B on capex is not behaving like a slow annuity. Opus also argues the December 2025 quarter’s 47.3% net margin is non-core noise rather than sustainable earnings power; I agree. The surrounding quarters printed 34.6%, 36.9%, 35.6%, 35.7%, and 38.3%, so treating 47.3% as normalized would overstate true run-rate profitability. I also agree with Opus that the revenue trend is accelerating, not decelerating: the March quarter was $82.9B versus $70.1B a year earlier, up 18.3%, stronger than the annual FY25 growth rate and stronger than the 2024 quarterly base suggested. And I agree that the missing competitive “market forces” read is a real hole, because for a stock priced on AI leadership, Azure’s relative growth versus AWS and Google matters more than generic quality metrics.
Where I part ways is mostly on degree. Opus says you are paying a “reasonable premium” and frames the stock as fair, with a 10-15% premium to fundamentals. I think that is too forgiving. A 2.45% FCF yield on a business in the middle of a capex supercycle is not just “not a bargain”; it is a valuation that already assumes management converts this infrastructure wave into durable high-return revenue. Opus’s own normalized earnings point undercuts the comfort of the P/E multiple: if true underlying net income is closer to $120-125B trailing, the earnings valuation is fine, but the shareholder doesn’t receive earnings, they receive future cash, and current free cash flow is being squeezed hard. I also disagree with Opus’s opening annualization framing: the last four quarters total $318.3B, not a “~$332B revenue run-rate,” and that distinction matters because the bull case does not need rounding-up embellishment. Finally, Opus says the debt data quality issue is immaterial; I’d go further and say leverage is a non-issue altogether for the thesis. Whether debt is $60.6B or closer to the higher all-in figure they cite, against $343.5B equity and $136.2B operating cash flow, balance-sheet risk is trivial relative to execution risk.
A careful skeptic of both my view and Opus’s would say we are both still anchoring too much on one year of capex distortion. Microsoft may be intentionally pulling forward infrastructure spend in a way that depresses FY25 free cash flow but creates a step-function in Azure and Copilot monetization over the next 24 months, in which case a 2.45% FCF yield on trough conversion is misleadingly harsh. That skeptic would also note that a company with 28.3% ROIC, 29.7% ROE, and recurring enterprise revenue has earned the right to trade above market multiples for long stretches. That is fair. But until the numbers show that capex growth stops outrunning free-cash-flow growth, I would not call $393 fair value; I would call it a good business priced for very good outcomes.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue compounded from 168.1B in 2021 to 281.7B in 2025 (roughly 14% CAGR) while operating margin expanded from 41.6% to 45.6% and net income grew from 61.3B to 101.8B. Gross margin held remarkably steady near 69% through massive AI-related capex, and net income growth (66% cumulative) outpaced revenue growth (68% -- roughly in line), indicating operating leverage rather than mix erosion. Diluted share count actually shrank slightly (7.61B to 7.47B, -0.5% CAGR) with buybacks running 257% of SBC, so per-share value is protected. Balance sheet carries 94.6B liquid cash and 34.0B net cash, and Altman Z of 8.14 is deep in the safe zone. Earnings quality is clean: OCF/NI at 1.27x, accruals -4.9% of assets, Beneish M at -2.5, and FCF of 71.6B on 101.8B net income (FCF/NI ~70%) reflects heavy AI/datacenter capex rather than accounting aggression. The one nuance worth flagging: FCF growth stalled in 2025 (74.1B in 2024 to 71.6B in 2025) even as net income jumped 15.5%, a signature of the capex super-cycle. Insider tape shows only a trivial tax-withholding event -- no directional signal. This is a durable, high-integrity compounder with fortress-grade financials.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Azure/AI segment gross margin trajectory in the 10-K MD&A -- is the headline 68.8% GM masking pressure in cloud/AI mix?
- Capex guidance and ROI framing for AI datacenter buildout (2025 capex vs. depreciation ramp)
- OpenAI commitments and any off-balance-sheet or equity-method exposure disclosed in 10-K
- Customer/geographic concentration disclosures (US federal, top cloud customers)
- Any changes to useful-life assumptions for server/networking assets that would flatter operating margin
At $393.35 and a $2.92T market cap, MSFT trades around 32-34x forward earnings and roughly 12x sales - premium multiples that already bake in Azure/AI dominance, Copilot monetization, and continued margin expansion. The e2e synthesis flags 'High Conviction Required,' which is my read too: to justify today's price on a DCF you need mid-teens revenue growth for years plus stable-to-expanding op margins against a rising capex load. That is the consensus bull case, not a hidden edge. Earnings quality is high (no haircut needed) and the business quality is fortress-tier, both of which lift deserved value - but they don't lift it above what the tape is already paying. The bear case (AWS/GCP competition, AI capex compressing FCF conversion, customer price sensitivity) is credible enough that I refuse to underwrite a premium to today's price. Net: price roughly equals deserved value. No margin of safety, no obvious overpay. This is the market efficiently pricing a great business - the common, correct verdict.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Azure growth rate and whether it is re-accelerating or decelerating in the next print
- Capex guidance for FY and whether FCF conversion stabilizes
- Copilot seat penetration and ARPU disclosure in Productivity segment
- Commentary on AI gross margins as workloads scale
- Any change in buyback pace given capex demands
The tape is modestly risk-off (VIX 18, S&P off 2.4%, 10y 4.65%) and the Nasdaq is on a 5-day losing streak led by a chipmaker rout - that is a headwind for high-beta AI names, but MSFT sits on the defensive end of the AI cohort. With beta 1.13, huge FCF, and a 'platform-monopoly' archetype that the market treats as the safest way to own AI, it absorbs macro stress far better than story-stocks around it. The active narrative - Azure plus Copilot as the enterprise AI infrastructure layer - is durable and moderate-intensity, not euphoric, so there is no froth to unwind. News flow is a net positive drumbeat: MSFT is name-checked as the AI backbone across ecosystem stories (Etsy AI agent partnerships, power-demand pieces tying Nadella's buildout to Caterpillar, Anthropic open-weight letter). The only real overhang is Gene Munster's 'bot boogeyman' framing - that AI-driven software pricing changes are a bigger test than the print - which introduces a specific narrative-crack risk into the upcoming earnings window. Net: the story is intact, the tape is annoying but not hostile to megacap quality, and analyst/media tone still frames MSFT as an AI winner. Pressure leans positive, but the earnings catalyst plus a shaky Nasdaq cap the magnitude.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- MSFT earnings reaction - does Azure growth reaccelerate or does guidance crack the AI-infrastructure story
- Whether the Nasdaq losing streak extends into broad AI multiple compression or stabilizes
- Any concrete evidence of Copilot pricing pressure or seat-cannibalization (the 'bot boogeyman')
- VIX behavior - a break above 20 with MSFT still holding would confirm defensive-bid status
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Jul 29, 2026, MSFT was $393.35. We expect it to be $418.00 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $330.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 29, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.