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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -40 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 1 · Value -73 · Sentiment 32 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $62.94 vs $86.55 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
NextEra Energy, Inc.
NEE NYSENextEra Energy, Inc. is a utility and energy infrastructure company that generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity across North America. Its operations are centered on Florida Power & Light, a regulated utility that serves millions of customer accounts in Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources, a major clean energy platform focused on wind, solar, battery storage, and other power assets. The company also participates in natural gas, nuclear, transmission, and related energy services, giving it a broad footprint across regulated and competitive power markets. NextEra Energy plays an important role in supplying reliable electricity while expanding the use of renewable generation and modern grid infrastructure. Headquartered in Juno Beach, Florida, and founded in 1925, NextEra Energy is a prominent participant in the U.S. utilities sector.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.30
Total Equity: $66.48B
Shares: 2,070,600,000
Total Debt: $93.06B
Cash: $2.81B
EBITDA: $14.86B
Total Debt: $93.06B
Cash: $2.81B
Revenue: $27.41B
Revenue: $27.41B
Revenue: $27.41B
Total Equity: $66.48B
Tax Rate: -17.7%
Equity: $66.48B
Total Debt: $93.06B
Cash: $2.81B
Current Liabilities: $22.82B
Long-Term Debt: $89.56B
Total Debt: $93.06B
Total Equity: $66.48B
Shares: 2,070,600,000
Shares: 2,070,600,000
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 2,070,600,000
Stock Price: $86.55
Net Income: $6.84B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 10:58pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.1B | $21.0B | $28.1B | $24.8B | $27.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $14.2B | $17.4B | $18.3B | $17.6B | $19.4B |
| Operating Income | $2.9B | $4.1B | $10.2B | $7.5B | $8.3B |
| Net Income | $3.6B | $4.1B | $7.3B | $6.9B | $6.8B |
| EBITDA | $6.8B | $8.6B | $16.1B | $12.9B | $14.9B |
| EPS | $1.82 | $2.10 | $3.61 | $3.38 | $3.31 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.81 | $2.10 | $3.60 | $3.37 | $3.30 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $639.0M | $1.6B | $2.7B | $1.5B | $2.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $9.3B | $13.5B | $15.4B | $12.0B | $13.6B |
| Total Assets | $140.9B | $158.9B | $177.5B | $190.1B | $212.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $17.4B | $26.7B | $28.0B | $25.4B | $22.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | $51.0B | $55.3B | $61.4B | $72.4B | $89.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $95.2B | $109.5B | $118.5B | $129.3B | $146.2B |
| Total Equity | $45.7B | $49.4B | $59.0B | $60.9B | $66.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $25.9B | $26.7B | $30.2B | $32.9B | $35.1B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $7.6B | $8.3B | $11.3B | $13.3B | $12.5B |
| Capital Expenditure | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $7.1B | $9.3B | $5.9B | $14.7B | $13.0B |
| Dividends Paid | -$3.0B | -$3.4B | -$3.8B | -$4.2B | -$4.7B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$230.0M | $2.1B | -$21.0M | -$2.0B | $1.6B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 10:58pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +22.8% | +34.2% | -12.0% | +10.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +40.1% | +150.8% | -26.9% | +10.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +16.1% | +76.3% | -5.0% | -1.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | +25.6% | +87.7% | -19.7% | +14.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (22d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-21 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-28 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-22 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-03 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-26 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-22 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-29 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-26 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-27 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-23 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-29 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-27 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-28 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-24 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-26 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-20 23:35Even the bull case prices 23% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 45%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($86.55) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +7% | 33.8% | $66.85 | -23% |
| Base — stabilizes | +5% | 29.4% | $54.57 | -37% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 25.0% | $43.72 | -49% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +5% | 24.7% | $47.67 | -45% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw tape: NEE just posted $6.70B revenue and $2.18B net income in Q1 2026 — a 32.6% margin, which is exceptional for a regulated utility and up sharply from the 13.3% mess in Q1 2025. The 2025 full year came in at $27.41B revenue / $6.84B NI, actually below 2023's $28.11B / $7.31B. So the "growth story" is largely a rebound from a weak 2024 base ($24.75B), not a fresh acceleration — revenue CAGR is negative 1.3% over the visible window. Meanwhile the balance sheet carries $93.1B of debt against $2.81B cash and $66.5B equity — a 1.4x D/E that in a 5% rate world costs real money. Operating CF of $12.49B against implied capex north of $12B (NEE has guided ~$120B capex through 2027) means free cash flow is thin to negative before you fund the $0.55/qtr dividend at a 68% payout ratio. That's the actual picture: a highly levered, capex-devouring, dividend-committed utility trading at 26x earnings and 9.9x EV/revenue.
The prior models are directionally right but reach the conclusion via different routes, and I'd flag one contradiction. The synthesis says $57–60 fair value (30% overvalued); the narrative layer calls it "anchored" at a 44.5% premium justified by platform-monopoly durability; the market-forces model calls it Neutral in a margin-compression cycle. Those aren't fully consistent — "anchored platform monopoly with durable narrative" doesn't square with "neutral, transitioning to leveraged yield play." My read sides closer to market-forces: the renewable PPA repricing risk is real (many contracts signed in 2018-2021 at low-teens IRRs are now competing with 5% risk-free), IRA tax credit monetization depends on political durability that just got materially weaker post-2024 election, and interest expense on $93B of debt at refinancing rates 200-300bp above legacy coupons is a permanent earnings headwind. ROIC of 6.2% against a cost of capital now likely 7%+ means NEE may be a value destroyer at the margin on new projects — the opposite of the platform-monopoly narrative.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: FPL's rate base grows ~9% annually with Florida population tailwinds and constructive FPSC regulation — that's real, durable, and worth a premium multiple in isolation (call it 20x for the regulated piece). NEER is the swing factor. If you assume NEER's 74GW backlog gets built at even 8% unlevered returns and IRA credits survive substantially intact, the sum-of-parts gets you into the low-$70s, not $57. The synthesis DCF at $57 likely under-weights the option value of being the scale leader in interconnection queue positions — a genuinely scarce asset given 5-7 year grid connection timelines. But — and this is decisive — even the bull SOTP doesn't get to $86.55 without heroic assumptions on renewable margins holding and rate cases being fully constructive. The single insider "transaction" is a 409-share award, which is noise, not a signal; the data is thin there.
Where I dissent mildly from synthesis: $57 fair value feels too punitive — it's treating volatile GAAP revenue as unreliable when the volatility is mostly Q1 seasonality and hedge mark-to-market noise (2025 Q1's $833M NI was depressed by unrealized derivative losses, a recurring pattern). A fairer anchor is $65-72, blending 20x on ~$3.60 regulated EPS plus a 15x multiple on ~$1.20 renewable EPS. At $86.55, you're paying 20-30% above that, which is expensive but not egregious for a name with genuine scale advantages. I agree with the overvalued verdict, disagree with the magnitude. The catalyst path to a re-rate lower is clear: any IRA rollback, a bad FPL rate case in 2026, or a single quarter of NEER project write-downs would take this to $70 quickly. The catalyst path higher requires renewable margins to actually expand, which the market-forces model correctly identifies as unlikely in this repricing cycle. Starter positions make sense in the low $70s; at $86.55 you're paying for a narrative that has more downside asymmetry than upside, especially with a 2.75% dividend yield that doesn't compensate for the leverage and rate-sensitivity.
GPT Reading
What jumps out first is that the stock is still being valued like a growth utility even though the last few years look more like a capital-intensive quality utility with uneven earnings translation. Revenue went from $28.11B in 2023 down to $24.75B in 2024, then back up to $27.41B in 2025; that is not the clean compounding top line you pay 6.5x sales or 18.2x EV/EBITDA for. Net income is even more telling: $7.31B in 2023, $6.95B in 2024, $6.84B in 2025. So despite all the narrative around renewable-led growth, annual earnings have drifted slightly down over two years while the market cap sits at $180.5B. On those 2025 numbers, investors are paying 26.2x earnings for a business with 10.3% ROE, 6.2% ROIC, and 3.2% ROA. Those are respectable utility returns, not premium-infrastructure-platform returns.
The quarterly data do show why bulls keep hanging on. Q1 2026 revenue was $6.70B versus $6.25B a year earlier, and net income jumped from $833M to $2.18B, taking net margin from 13.3% to 32.6%. That is a huge swing and suggests 2025’s weak first quarter was not the new baseline. But that rebound also highlights the deeper issue: this is not a simple straight-line earnings story. Quarterly margins have ranged from 13.3% to 30.6% over the last five reported quarters before Q1 2026, which is wide for a business priced at a premium to the utility group. If I am paying almost 2.7x book and nearly 10x EV/revenue for a regulated-electric name, I want either much more visible earnings compounding or much higher returns on capital than this dataset shows.
The balance sheet is the other reason I can’t justify $86.55. Debt is $93.06B against just $2.81B of cash and $66.48B of equity, a debt/equity ratio of 1.40 with a current ratio below 0.6. That structure is not unusual in utilities, but it matters enormously when the stock already carries a premium multiple. Operating cash flow of $12.49B is solid, yet for a company this deep into buildout and maintenance capex cycles, OCF alone is not enough to make me comfortable without seeing the full free cash flow picture. The dividend yield is only 2.75%, with a 68.5% payout ratio, so shareholders are not even being paid an outsized yield while taking refinancing risk and execution risk. At this valuation, the market is treating NextEra as a best-in-class compounder; the raw numbers look more like a very good utility whose growth attributes are already overcapitalized into the stock.
The best argument against my view is that the annual figures understate underlying earnings power because they blur a regulated base business with a more cyclical development arm, and the recent quarter may be the cleanest signal of where normalized earnings are headed. If Q1 2026’s $2.18B net income is part of a broader reset rather than a one-off recovery, then the apparent stagnation in 2023-2025 could prove temporary. The company also deserves some premium: a 30.2% operating margin and 24.9% net margin on 2025 revenue are stronger than many utilities, and Florida-linked demand plus renewable deployment can support above-sector growth for a long time. In that framing, 26x earnings is expensive but not absurd if earnings can resume high-single-digit growth with limited credit slippage. I still weigh this less heavily because the premium is already large, and when premium utilities miss, compression comes from both earnings and multiple.
What would change my mind is not another story about long-duration renewable demand but a couple of hard proof points. If 2026 annual net income clearly exceeds the 2023 peak of $7.31B and does so with revenue growth holding above 8% and leverage contained rather than ratcheting higher, then the current multiple would look more defensible. I would also want evidence that operating cash flow growth is outpacing financing needs, not just keeping up with them. Conversely, if 2026 settles back toward the 2024-2025 earnings band despite the strong Q1, then a stock in the high $80s is simply too expensive for the actual earnings trajectory. My base case is that fair value is much closer to the low-to-mid $60s than the current quote.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a story of a premium franchise whose growth engine has stalled while the multiple has not. NextEra printed $27.41B in 2025 revenue and $6.84B in net income—respectable absolute dollars, but the multi-year arc is unflattering: revenue CAGR of -1.3% and earnings CAGR of -3.3% from the 2023 peak of $28.11B and $7.31B. Net income has drifted lower for two consecutive years even as operating margins sit at an elite 30.2% and net margins at 24.9%. That combination—world-class profitability paired with shrinking top- and bottom-line CAGRs—is the central tension. Quarterly prints remain lumpy ($7.97B then $6.50B then $6.70B), and the most recent year-over-year revenue bounce of +10.7% merely recovers ground lost in 2024; it does not re-establish a durable growth trajectory. Meanwhile the balance sheet carries $93.06B of debt against $2.81B of cash and $66.48B of equity, a 1.40 debt-to-equity load that leaves ROIC at a mediocre 6.2% and current ratio at a thin 0.60. Operating cash flow of $12.49B is the genuine bright spot—it funds the dividend (2.75% yield, 68% payout) and the capex machine—but it is being asked to service an increasingly leveraged growth narrative.
At 26.2x earnings, 6.5x sales and 18.2x EV/EBITDA, the market is paying roughly double a plain-vanilla regulated-utility multiple for a company whose recent earnings are flat-to-down. The valuation synthesis fair value near $60 implies the $86.55 price embeds a 30–45% narrative premium for NEER’s renewable platform and Florida rate-base expansion. That premium only works if contracted renewables deliver high-single-digit to low-double-digit earnings growth with stable margins; the trailing data simply do not show it yet. ROE of 10.3% is adequate for a utility but ordinary for a 26x multiple. The stock is therefore priced for a re-acceleration that has not appeared in the income statement.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward: absolute cash generation remains formidable, FPL’s Florida demographic tailwind is structural, and the 2025 revenue recovery plus mid-30% quarterly net margins in several recent periods suggest the trough may already be behind them. A smart opponent would also note that utilities are valued on rate-base growth and contracted cash flows, not trailing GAAP CAGRs, and that $12.5B of operating cash flow against a $180B enterprise still supports a quality compounder case if NEER’s backlog converts cleanly. I weigh this less heavily because the negative multi-year earnings CAGR, elevated leverage, and sub-7% ROIC are observable facts today, while the renewable acceleration remains a forward claim already capitalized at a full premium. Margin compression risk on new PPAs and the refinancing wall on $93B of debt are not theoretical in a still-elevated rate regime.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive if 2026 full-year net income clears $7.5B with revenue above $30B, if ROIC sustains above 8%, or if management demonstrates NEER project IRRs that expand rather than compress consolidated margins while holding net debt/EBITDA flat. A multiple compression toward 20x accompanied by even mid-single-digit earnings growth would also close most of the gap to fair value without requiring heroic assumptions.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
NextEra is a mature, cash-generative regulated utility plus renewables developer. Revenue grew from $17.1B (2021) to $27.4B (2025), operating margin expanded from 17% to a 30%+ range, and net income roughly doubled to $6.84B. Free cash flow scaled from $7.55B to $12.49B, and OCF/NI of 1.88x with accruals at -2.7% of assets indicate clean, cash-backed earnings quality. Diluted share count crept from 1.97B to 2.07B (about 1.2% CAGR) — real dilution but modest and typical for a capex-heavy utility funding growth. The business is clearly self-funding at the operating level.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Maturity ladder and weighted-average coupon of the $90B+ debt stack, and refi schedule against current rates
- FPL regulated capital structure vs. NEER (renewables) non-recourse project debt split
- Any equity-unit/convertible mandatory issuances embedded in the capital plan that would step up share count
- Interest coverage and FFO/debt trend at NEE and FPL under current rating agency thresholds
- Contracted vs. merchant mix and counterparty credit at NEER
The valuation stack points one direction: EPV floor at $48.52, anchored P/E at $65.49, composite FV $57.01, and signal-adjusted FV $59.91 — all materially below the $86.55 price, implying roughly 30% downside to deserved value. Even giving credit for the regulated FPL moat and the renewables platform (which justifies a premium multiple over pure EPV), the anchored-PE of $65.49 is the most generous method here and still sits 24% below spot. The market is paying for a long runway of double-digit renewables growth and benign regulatory outcomes at FPL, on top of a $90B net-debt structure that leaves little cushion if rates stay higher or ROE authorizations tighten. Quality is Solid, not Fortress — so a premium is deserved, but not this much. A fair deserved value, blending the methods and giving quality credit, lands around $65-70. At $86.55 you are paying a growth-story premium of roughly 25-30% over that. Not a short, but no margin of safety and asymmetric to the downside if renewable IRRs compress or rate-case outcomes disappoint.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- FPL pending rate case outcomes and authorized ROE
- NEER renewables backlog IRRs and PPA pricing trends
- Interest expense trajectory and 2025-2026 debt maturity refinancing rates
- Any equity issuance signals in the funding plan
- Segment-level EBITDA growth vs guidance
NEE sits inside a strong, durable platform-monopoly narrative — the 'essential infrastructure play on the energy transition' — with medium cult intensity. That story is doing real work on the tape: recent 10.7% momentum against a -1.3% long-term trend shows the narrative reasserting itself, and fresh news framing NEE as the soon-to-be second-largest US nuclear operator plugs directly into the hottest sub-narrative in power (AI/data-center electricity demand plus nuclear renaissance). That is a genuine tailwind specific to this name, not a generic market lift. The macro backdrop is mixed for THIS stock. The tape is nascent risk-on (VIX 15.9, S&P near highs), which is mildly supportive, but NEE's 0.65 beta means it barely participates in risk-on rallies — the tape gives only a light push. Meanwhile the 10y at 4.75% is the specific macro variable that bites regulated utilities and long-duration renewable cash flows hardest, muting what would otherwise be a stronger lift. Net: narrative and news pressure lean positive and are stock-specific; macro rate pressure is a real but ordinary crosswind. Net tailwind, not decisive.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- 10y Treasury direction - a move back under 4.5% would materially strengthen the tailwind on rate-sensitive utilities
- Whether the AI/data-center power-demand narrative keeps rewarding nuclear-heavy operators or rotates elsewhere
- Any IRA/tax-credit policy noise that could crack the renewable-growth story
- FPL rate case developments that could validate or undermine the regulatory-benevolence assumption
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, NEE was $86.55. We expect it to be $80.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $68.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.