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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 4, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 4, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 20, 2026 · 16 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -40 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 1 · Value -73 · Sentiment 32 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $62.94 vs $86.55 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

NextEra Energy, Inc.

NEE NYSE
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Juno Beach, FL 33408, United States nexteraenergy.com Updated Aug 4, 12:02am
Price
$86.55
Market Cap
$180.5B
Employees
17,400
Beta
0.65
Avg Volume
11,161,180
Last Dividend
$2.38
CEO
Mr. John W. Ketchum J.D.

NextEra Energy, Inc. is a utility and energy infrastructure company that generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity across North America. Its operations are centered on Florida Power & Light, a regulated utility that serves millions of customer accounts in Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources, a major clean energy platform focused on wind, solar, battery storage, and other power assets. The company also participates in natural gas, nuclear, transmission, and related energy services, giving it a broad footprint across regulated and competitive power markets. NextEra Energy plays an important role in supplying reliable electricity while expanding the use of renewable generation and modern grid infrastructure. Headquartered in Juno Beach, Florida, and founded in 1925, NextEra Energy is a prominent participant in the U.S. utilities sector.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 4, 2026 12:38am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$86.55
as of Aug 4, 12:47am (19d ago)
Change · Aug 4
-0.37 (-0.43%)
Day Range
$85.71 – $87.38
52-Week Range
$69.24 – $98.75
50-Day MA
$87.34
200-Day MA
$87.71
Volume
8,834,814.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 19d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 2,085,341,456.00
Float 2,081,381,286.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:59am (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 10:58pm (21d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 4, 2026 12:36am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
26.23
Stock Price: $86.55
EPS (Diluted): 3.30
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.70
Stock Price: $86.55
Total Equity: $66.48B
Shares: 2,070,600,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
18.20
Market Cap: $180.54B
Total Debt: $93.06B
Cash: $2.81B
EBITDA: $14.86B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$270.5B
Market Cap: $180.54B
Total Debt: $93.06B
Cash: $2.81B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $27.41B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
30.2%
Operating Income: $8.28B
Revenue: $27.41B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
24.9%
Net Income: $6.84B
Revenue: $27.41B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
10.3%
Net Income: $6.84B
Total Equity: $66.48B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
6.2%
Operating Income: $8.28B
Tax Rate: -17.7%
Equity: $66.48B
Total Debt: $93.06B
Cash: $2.81B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.60
Current Assets: $13.58B
Current Liabilities: $22.82B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.40
Short-Term Debt: $3.50B
Long-Term Debt: $89.56B
Total Debt: $93.06B
Total Equity: $66.48B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$13.24
Revenue: $27.41B
Shares: 2,070,600,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$32.11
Total Equity: $66.48B
Shares: 2,070,600,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$6.03
Operating CF: $12.49B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 2,070,600,000
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.7%
Last Dividend: $2.38
Stock Price: $86.55
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
68.5%
Dividends Paid: -$4.68B
Net Income: $6.84B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 4, 2026 12:36am
Compares NEE against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 10:58pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $17.1B $21.0B $28.1B $24.8B $27.4B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $14.2B $17.4B $18.3B $17.6B $19.4B
Operating Income $2.9B $4.1B $10.2B $7.5B $8.3B
Net Income $3.6B $4.1B $7.3B $6.9B $6.8B
EBITDA $6.8B $8.6B $16.1B $12.9B $14.9B
EPS $1.82 $2.10 $3.61 $3.38 $3.31
EPS (Diluted) $1.81 $2.10 $3.60 $3.37 $3.30
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $639.0M $1.6B $2.7B $1.5B $2.8B
Total Current Assets $9.3B $13.5B $15.4B $12.0B $13.6B
Total Assets $140.9B $158.9B $177.5B $190.1B $212.7B
Current Liabilities $17.4B $26.7B $28.0B $25.4B $22.8B
Long-Term Debt $51.0B $55.3B $61.4B $72.4B $89.6B
Total Liabilities $95.2B $109.5B $118.5B $129.3B $146.2B
Total Equity $45.7B $49.4B $59.0B $60.9B $66.5B
Retained Earnings $25.9B $26.7B $30.2B $32.9B $35.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $7.6B $8.3B $11.3B $13.3B $12.5B
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $7.1B $9.3B $5.9B $14.7B $13.0B
Dividends Paid -$3.0B -$3.4B -$3.8B -$4.2B -$4.7B
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash -$230.0M $2.1B -$21.0M -$2.0B $1.6B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 10:58pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +22.8% +34.2% -12.0% +10.7%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth +40.1% +150.8% -26.9% +10.7%
Net Income Growth +16.1% +76.3% -5.0% -1.6%
EBITDA Growth +25.6% +87.7% -19.7% +14.8%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (22d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-05 $0.62
2026-02-27 $0.62
2025-11-21 $0.57
2025-08-28 $0.57
2025-06-02 $0.57
2025-02-28 $0.57
2024-11-22 $0.52
2024-08-30 $0.52
2024-06-03 $0.52
2024-02-26 $0.52
2023-11-22 $0.47
2023-08-29 $0.47
2023-05-26 $0.47
2023-02-27 $0.47
2022-11-23 $0.43
2022-08-29 $0.43
2022-05-27 $0.43
2022-02-28 $0.43
2021-11-24 $0.39
2021-08-26 $0.39
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 4 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-20 23:35
-0.5 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 23% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 45%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($86.55)
Bull — recovery +7% 33.8% $66.85 -23%
Base — stabilizes +5% 29.4% $54.57 -37%
Bear — keeps slipping +2% 25.0% $43.72 -49%
Stress — last quarter repeats +5% 24.7% $47.67 -45%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 5.3% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.84). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Mar 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +7.3% · operating income -2.1% · net income +161.9% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +5.3%, operating income -11.5% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Mar 31, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for NEE — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-04 00:58:57
Verdict Overvalued but not by 30% — fair value $65-72, wait for a print-driven pullback to low $70s before initiating; current price prices in renewable margin stability that the repricing cycle argues against.

Starting with the raw tape: NEE just posted $6.70B revenue and $2.18B net income in Q1 2026 — a 32.6% margin, which is exceptional for a regulated utility and up sharply from the 13.3% mess in Q1 2025. The 2025 full year came in at $27.41B revenue / $6.84B NI, actually below 2023's $28.11B / $7.31B. So the "growth story" is largely a rebound from a weak 2024 base ($24.75B), not a fresh acceleration — revenue CAGR is negative 1.3% over the visible window. Meanwhile the balance sheet carries $93.1B of debt against $2.81B cash and $66.5B equity — a 1.4x D/E that in a 5% rate world costs real money. Operating CF of $12.49B against implied capex north of $12B (NEE has guided ~$120B capex through 2027) means free cash flow is thin to negative before you fund the $0.55/qtr dividend at a 68% payout ratio. That's the actual picture: a highly levered, capex-devouring, dividend-committed utility trading at 26x earnings and 9.9x EV/revenue.

The prior models are directionally right but reach the conclusion via different routes, and I'd flag one contradiction. The synthesis says $57–60 fair value (30% overvalued); the narrative layer calls it "anchored" at a 44.5% premium justified by platform-monopoly durability; the market-forces model calls it Neutral in a margin-compression cycle. Those aren't fully consistent — "anchored platform monopoly with durable narrative" doesn't square with "neutral, transitioning to leveraged yield play." My read sides closer to market-forces: the renewable PPA repricing risk is real (many contracts signed in 2018-2021 at low-teens IRRs are now competing with 5% risk-free), IRA tax credit monetization depends on political durability that just got materially weaker post-2024 election, and interest expense on $93B of debt at refinancing rates 200-300bp above legacy coupons is a permanent earnings headwind. ROIC of 6.2% against a cost of capital now likely 7%+ means NEE may be a value destroyer at the margin on new projects — the opposite of the platform-monopoly narrative.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously: FPL's rate base grows ~9% annually with Florida population tailwinds and constructive FPSC regulation — that's real, durable, and worth a premium multiple in isolation (call it 20x for the regulated piece). NEER is the swing factor. If you assume NEER's 74GW backlog gets built at even 8% unlevered returns and IRA credits survive substantially intact, the sum-of-parts gets you into the low-$70s, not $57. The synthesis DCF at $57 likely under-weights the option value of being the scale leader in interconnection queue positions — a genuinely scarce asset given 5-7 year grid connection timelines. But — and this is decisive — even the bull SOTP doesn't get to $86.55 without heroic assumptions on renewable margins holding and rate cases being fully constructive. The single insider "transaction" is a 409-share award, which is noise, not a signal; the data is thin there.

Where I dissent mildly from synthesis: $57 fair value feels too punitive — it's treating volatile GAAP revenue as unreliable when the volatility is mostly Q1 seasonality and hedge mark-to-market noise (2025 Q1's $833M NI was depressed by unrealized derivative losses, a recurring pattern). A fairer anchor is $65-72, blending 20x on ~$3.60 regulated EPS plus a 15x multiple on ~$1.20 renewable EPS. At $86.55, you're paying 20-30% above that, which is expensive but not egregious for a name with genuine scale advantages. I agree with the overvalued verdict, disagree with the magnitude. The catalyst path to a re-rate lower is clear: any IRA rollback, a bad FPL rate case in 2026, or a single quarter of NEER project write-downs would take this to $70 quickly. The catalyst path higher requires renewable margins to actually expand, which the market-forces model correctly identifies as unlikely in this repricing cycle. Starter positions make sense in the low $70s; at $86.55 you're paying for a narrative that has more downside asymmetry than upside, especially with a 2.75% dividend yield that doesn't compensate for the leverage and rate-sensitivity.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-04 00:59:11
Verdict Overvalued at $86.55 — premium utility multiples are being applied to a business with flat-to-down annual earnings, heavy leverage, and not enough visible growth; fair value looks closer to $60-$65.

What jumps out first is that the stock is still being valued like a growth utility even though the last few years look more like a capital-intensive quality utility with uneven earnings translation. Revenue went from $28.11B in 2023 down to $24.75B in 2024, then back up to $27.41B in 2025; that is not the clean compounding top line you pay 6.5x sales or 18.2x EV/EBITDA for. Net income is even more telling: $7.31B in 2023, $6.95B in 2024, $6.84B in 2025. So despite all the narrative around renewable-led growth, annual earnings have drifted slightly down over two years while the market cap sits at $180.5B. On those 2025 numbers, investors are paying 26.2x earnings for a business with 10.3% ROE, 6.2% ROIC, and 3.2% ROA. Those are respectable utility returns, not premium-infrastructure-platform returns.

The quarterly data do show why bulls keep hanging on. Q1 2026 revenue was $6.70B versus $6.25B a year earlier, and net income jumped from $833M to $2.18B, taking net margin from 13.3% to 32.6%. That is a huge swing and suggests 2025’s weak first quarter was not the new baseline. But that rebound also highlights the deeper issue: this is not a simple straight-line earnings story. Quarterly margins have ranged from 13.3% to 30.6% over the last five reported quarters before Q1 2026, which is wide for a business priced at a premium to the utility group. If I am paying almost 2.7x book and nearly 10x EV/revenue for a regulated-electric name, I want either much more visible earnings compounding or much higher returns on capital than this dataset shows.

The balance sheet is the other reason I can’t justify $86.55. Debt is $93.06B against just $2.81B of cash and $66.48B of equity, a debt/equity ratio of 1.40 with a current ratio below 0.6. That structure is not unusual in utilities, but it matters enormously when the stock already carries a premium multiple. Operating cash flow of $12.49B is solid, yet for a company this deep into buildout and maintenance capex cycles, OCF alone is not enough to make me comfortable without seeing the full free cash flow picture. The dividend yield is only 2.75%, with a 68.5% payout ratio, so shareholders are not even being paid an outsized yield while taking refinancing risk and execution risk. At this valuation, the market is treating NextEra as a best-in-class compounder; the raw numbers look more like a very good utility whose growth attributes are already overcapitalized into the stock.

The best argument against my view is that the annual figures understate underlying earnings power because they blur a regulated base business with a more cyclical development arm, and the recent quarter may be the cleanest signal of where normalized earnings are headed. If Q1 2026’s $2.18B net income is part of a broader reset rather than a one-off recovery, then the apparent stagnation in 2023-2025 could prove temporary. The company also deserves some premium: a 30.2% operating margin and 24.9% net margin on 2025 revenue are stronger than many utilities, and Florida-linked demand plus renewable deployment can support above-sector growth for a long time. In that framing, 26x earnings is expensive but not absurd if earnings can resume high-single-digit growth with limited credit slippage. I still weigh this less heavily because the premium is already large, and when premium utilities miss, compression comes from both earnings and multiple.

What would change my mind is not another story about long-duration renewable demand but a couple of hard proof points. If 2026 annual net income clearly exceeds the 2023 peak of $7.31B and does so with revenue growth holding above 8% and leverage contained rather than ratcheting higher, then the current multiple would look more defensible. I would also want evidence that operating cash flow growth is outpacing financing needs, not just keeping up with them. Conversely, if 2026 settles back toward the 2024-2025 earnings band despite the strong Q1, then a stock in the high $80s is simply too expensive for the actual earnings trajectory. My base case is that fair value is much closer to the low-to-mid $60s than the current quote.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-04 00:59:41
Verdict Overvalued at $86.55 — fair value nearer $60; 26x PE unjustified by negative earnings CAGR and 6% ROIC

The numbers tell a story of a premium franchise whose growth engine has stalled while the multiple has not. NextEra printed $27.41B in 2025 revenue and $6.84B in net income—respectable absolute dollars, but the multi-year arc is unflattering: revenue CAGR of -1.3% and earnings CAGR of -3.3% from the 2023 peak of $28.11B and $7.31B. Net income has drifted lower for two consecutive years even as operating margins sit at an elite 30.2% and net margins at 24.9%. That combination—world-class profitability paired with shrinking top- and bottom-line CAGRs—is the central tension. Quarterly prints remain lumpy ($7.97B then $6.50B then $6.70B), and the most recent year-over-year revenue bounce of +10.7% merely recovers ground lost in 2024; it does not re-establish a durable growth trajectory. Meanwhile the balance sheet carries $93.06B of debt against $2.81B of cash and $66.48B of equity, a 1.40 debt-to-equity load that leaves ROIC at a mediocre 6.2% and current ratio at a thin 0.60. Operating cash flow of $12.49B is the genuine bright spot—it funds the dividend (2.75% yield, 68% payout) and the capex machine—but it is being asked to service an increasingly leveraged growth narrative.

At 26.2x earnings, 6.5x sales and 18.2x EV/EBITDA, the market is paying roughly double a plain-vanilla regulated-utility multiple for a company whose recent earnings are flat-to-down. The valuation synthesis fair value near $60 implies the $86.55 price embeds a 30–45% narrative premium for NEER’s renewable platform and Florida rate-base expansion. That premium only works if contracted renewables deliver high-single-digit to low-double-digit earnings growth with stable margins; the trailing data simply do not show it yet. ROE of 10.3% is adequate for a utility but ordinary for a 26x multiple. The stock is therefore priced for a re-acceleration that has not appeared in the income statement.

The strongest counter-argument is straightforward: absolute cash generation remains formidable, FPL’s Florida demographic tailwind is structural, and the 2025 revenue recovery plus mid-30% quarterly net margins in several recent periods suggest the trough may already be behind them. A smart opponent would also note that utilities are valued on rate-base growth and contracted cash flows, not trailing GAAP CAGRs, and that $12.5B of operating cash flow against a $180B enterprise still supports a quality compounder case if NEER’s backlog converts cleanly. I weigh this less heavily because the negative multi-year earnings CAGR, elevated leverage, and sub-7% ROIC are observable facts today, while the renewable acceleration remains a forward claim already capitalized at a full premium. Margin compression risk on new PPAs and the refinancing wall on $93B of debt are not theoretical in a still-elevated rate regime.

I would reverse to neutral or constructive if 2026 full-year net income clears $7.5B with revenue above $30B, if ROIC sustains above 8%, or if management demonstrates NEER project IRRs that expand rather than compress consolidated margins while holding net debt/EBITDA flat. A multiple compression toward 20x accompanied by even mid-single-digit earnings growth would also close most of the gap to fair value without requiring heroic assumptions.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-04 01:26:34
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality name, rich price — pass, revisit sub-$70 8/10
Solid business, but at $86.55 I'm paying a 25-30% growth-narrative premium on a $90B-net-debt balance sheet — pass and wait for the high-$60s.
The cruxWhether the energy-transition/nuclear narrative can keep supporting a premium multiple with the 10y at 4.75% pressuring exactly this cohort — and history says no, not for long.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from NEE's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+1
Solid
edge √Σ 110 · risk √Σ 109 · conf 7/10

NextEra is a mature, cash-generative regulated utility plus renewables developer. Revenue grew from $17.1B (2021) to $27.4B (2025), operating margin expanded from 17% to a 30%+ range, and net income roughly doubled to $6.84B. Free cash flow scaled from $7.55B to $12.49B, and OCF/NI of 1.88x with accruals at -2.7% of assets indicate clean, cash-backed earnings quality. Diluted share count crept from 1.97B to 2.07B (about 1.2% CAGR) — real dilution but modest and typical for a capex-heavy utility funding growth. The business is clearly self-funding at the operating level.

Strengths 3
m70
Cash-backed earnings
OCF/NI at 1.88x and accruals at -2.7% of assets indicate reported earnings are conservatively stated and fully backed by cash generation.
m65
Margin expansion and scale
Operating margin rose from 17.1% (2021) to 30.2% (2025) while revenue grew 60%; FCF climbed from $7.55B to $12.49B — genuine operating leverage in a regulated model.
m55
Regulated-utility durability
FPL rate base plus long-contracted renewables give predictable cash flows; the mature_earner classification is supported by the steady multi-year FCF trajectory.
Concerns 5
m75
Heavy net debt load
Net debt of roughly $90B against $2.8B liquid cash means the balance sheet is a permanent constraint; rate/refi environment materially affects future earnings power.
m55
Altman Z 1.18 in distress zone
The model flags distress, though it is a known false-positive on regulated utilities whose asset-heavy, leveraged capital structure is normal and rate-supported; still worth noting as a leverage signal.
m45
Near-term refi exposure
Short-term debt of $3.50B exceeds $2.81B liquid cash; a utility can roll this in normal markets, but it removes any cushion against a capital-markets shock.
m30
Persistent low-single-digit dilution
Diluted shares up from 1.97B to 2.07B over five years — funds growth capex but slowly erodes per-share compounding.
m20
No insider conviction signal
Insider tape shows only routine awards; no open-market P/S activity to read either way.
This is a genuinely good business held back from being an obvious fortress by capital structure. The operating story is exactly what you want in a regulated utility plus renewables platform: margins expanding, FCF compounding to $12.5B, earnings backed by cash, and dilution kept to about 1.2% a year while funding a massive build-out. The catch is $90B of net debt with only $2.8B of liquid cash and short-term debt above that cushion — this company lives or dies by continuous access to debt markets and constructive rate treatment. In a normal world that is fine and this is a Solid, quietly compounding franchise. In a stressed rate or regulatory world it is meaningfully more fragile than the income statement suggests. Solid, not Strong.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Maturity ladder and weighted-average coupon of the $90B+ debt stack, and refi schedule against current rates
  • FPL regulated capital structure vs. NEER (renewables) non-recourse project debt split
  • Any equity-unit/convertible mandatory issuances embedded in the capital plan that would step up share count
  • Interest coverage and FFO/debt trend at NEE and FPL under current rating agency thresholds
  • Contracted vs. merchant mix and counterparty credit at NEER
Valuation / Mispricing
-73
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 118 · conf 6/10
Price $86.55 vs deserved ~$65-70; roughly 25-30% overpaid, negative margin of safety. attractive below $68.00

The valuation stack points one direction: EPV floor at $48.52, anchored P/E at $65.49, composite FV $57.01, and signal-adjusted FV $59.91 — all materially below the $86.55 price, implying roughly 30% downside to deserved value. Even giving credit for the regulated FPL moat and the renewables platform (which justifies a premium multiple over pure EPV), the anchored-PE of $65.49 is the most generous method here and still sits 24% below spot. The market is paying for a long runway of double-digit renewables growth and benign regulatory outcomes at FPL, on top of a $90B net-debt structure that leaves little cushion if rates stay higher or ROE authorizations tighten. Quality is Solid, not Fortress — so a premium is deserved, but not this much. A fair deserved value, blending the methods and giving quality credit, lands around $65-70. At $86.55 you are paying a growth-story premium of roughly 25-30% over that. Not a short, but no margin of safety and asymmetric to the downside if renewable IRRs compress or rate-case outcomes disappoint.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Quality and cash conversion support some premium
$12.5B FCF, expanding margins, cash-backed earnings, and only ~1.2% annual dilution justify trading above pure EPV — pushing deserved value toward the high-$60s, but not to $86.
Rich / priced-in 4
m72
Price 30%+ above composite FV
Composite FV $57.01 and signal-adjusted $59.91 vs $86.55 spot implies -31% upside. Even the most generous method (anchored-PE $65.49) sits 24% below price.
m60
EPV floor deeply below price
EPV of $48.52 is 44% below spot, meaning nearly half the market cap is growth/optionality value tied to renewables execution and continued rate-base compounding.
m55
Priced for platform-monopoly narrative
The bull case (renewables scaling at industrial velocity + FPL rate-base growth) appears fully embedded. Any regulatory friction, IRR compression, or rate-case setback removes the premium.
m45
Leverage caps deserved multiple
$90B net debt vs $2.8B liquid cash is a permanent constraint; in a higher-for-longer rate world this argues for a discount, not a premium, versus historical NEE multiples.
I don't see the edge here. The business is genuinely good and deserves a premium over EPV, but the composite fair value screams roughly $60 and even a quality-adjusted deserved value tops out in the high-$60s. At $86.55 I'm paying full growth-story pricing on a levered balance sheet with regulatory and rate-cycle risk. This is a Rich, not Overvalued, call - I'd want it in the high $60s before it's interesting, and I'm not shorting a monopoly utility either. Pass at this price.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FPL pending rate case outcomes and authorized ROE
  • NEER renewables backlog IRRs and PPA pricing trends
  • Interest expense trajectory and 2025-2026 debt maturity refinancing rates
  • Any equity issuance signals in the funding plan
  • Segment-level EBITDA growth vs guidance
General Sentiment
+32
Tailwind
tail √Σ 89 · head √Σ 56 · conf 6/10

NEE sits inside a strong, durable platform-monopoly narrative — the 'essential infrastructure play on the energy transition' — with medium cult intensity. That story is doing real work on the tape: recent 10.7% momentum against a -1.3% long-term trend shows the narrative reasserting itself, and fresh news framing NEE as the soon-to-be second-largest US nuclear operator plugs directly into the hottest sub-narrative in power (AI/data-center electricity demand plus nuclear renaissance). That is a genuine tailwind specific to this name, not a generic market lift. The macro backdrop is mixed for THIS stock. The tape is nascent risk-on (VIX 15.9, S&P near highs), which is mildly supportive, but NEE's 0.65 beta means it barely participates in risk-on rallies — the tape gives only a light push. Meanwhile the 10y at 4.75% is the specific macro variable that bites regulated utilities and long-duration renewable cash flows hardest, muting what would otherwise be a stronger lift. Net: narrative and news pressure lean positive and are stock-specific; macro rate pressure is a real but ordinary crosswind. Net tailwind, not decisive.

Tailwinds 4
m62
Durable transition/nuclear narrative
Platform-monopoly archetype with strong intensity and durable shelf life; NEE is the default vehicle for energy-transition and nuclear-scale-up stories, which supports multiple expansion beyond DCF fair value.
m45
Nuclear-scale news catalyst
Coverage flagging NEE as the soon-to-be #2 US nuclear operator taps directly into the AI-power/data-center demand narrative that is currently rewarding baseload-electricity names.
m40
Momentum reasserting
Recent 10.7% run against a -1.3% longer trend suggests sentiment is turning positive and money is rotating back into the name.
m20
Risk-on tape, muted transmission
Nascent risk-on regime is mildly supportive, but at beta 0.65 NEE captures only a fraction of any broad rally - a small, not decisive, help.
Headwinds 2
m50
10y at 4.75% presses utilities specifically
Regulated utilities and long-duration renewable project economics are among the most rate-sensitive equity cohorts; elevated long yields cap how far sentiment can push NEE's multiple.
m25
Leverage creep in the story
D/E drifting 1.16 to 1.40 is the kind of detail that gives the bear narrative (rising capital costs, tax-credit dependence) something to latch onto if the tape sours.
Net tailwind, but a modest one. The energy-transition and nuclear narratives are actively working for NEE and the recent news flow feeds them - that is a real, stock-specific push, not just market drift. Against that, 4.75% long rates are the exact macro variable utilities hate, and NEE's low beta means the risk-on tape barely helps. I lean tailwind with medium confidence: the story is doing the lifting, and it will keep lifting until either rates spike further or the renewable-growth arithmetic gets publicly questioned.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • 10y Treasury direction - a move back under 4.5% would materially strengthen the tailwind on rate-sensitive utilities
  • Whether the AI/data-center power-demand narrative keeps rewarding nuclear-heavy operators or rotates elsewhere
  • Any IRA/tax-credit policy noise that could crack the renewable-growth story
  • FPL rate case developments that could validate or undermine the regulatory-benevolence assumption
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -7.6% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, NEE was $86.55. We expect it to be $80.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $68.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$86.55
Our estimate for Feb 2027$80.00-7.6%
Great value below$68.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06