Business Description
Nokia Oyj provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Mobile Networks, Network Infrastructure, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. It offers products and services for radio access networks covering technologies from 2G to 5G, and microwave radio links for transport networks. The company provides fixed networking solutions, such as fiber and copper-based access infrastructure, and cloud and virtualization services, as well as wi-fi portfolio, including mesh solutions and cloud-based controllers; IP routing solutions for IP aggregation, and edge and core applications for residential, business, mobile, and industrial services; a portfolio of optical networks comprising portfolio coherent optical transponders, optical transport network switchers, wavelength-division multiplexers, reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexer solutions, and optical line systems for metro access and aggregation, data center interconnect, regional, and long-haul/ultra-long-haul applications; and submarine networks. In addition, it offers business applications software, cloud and cognitive services, core networks software, and enterprise solutions. Further, the company provides hardware, software, and services, as well as licensing of intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand. It serves communications service providers, webscales, hyperscalers, digital industries, and government. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Business History
Generated: May 13, 2026 11:02amPrice Overview
Last updated: May 24, 2026 1:36pm (just now)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.11
Total Equity: $20.96B
Shares: 5,502,781,000
Total Debt: $4.41B
Cash: $5.46B
EBITDA: $2.25B
Total Debt: $4.41B
Cash: $5.46B
Revenue: $19.89B
Revenue: $19.89B
Revenue: $19.89B
Total Equity: $20.96B
Tax Rate: 30.3%
Equity: $20.96B
Total Debt: $4.41B
Cash: $5.46B
Current Liabilities: $10.00B
Long-Term Debt: $3.12B
Total Debt: $4.41B
Total Equity: $20.96B
Shares: 5,502,781,000
Shares: 5,502,781,000
CapEx: -$606.00M
Shares: 5,502,781,000
Stock Price: $15.47
Net Income: $651.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: May 20, 2026 3:52pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.2B | $23.8B | $21.1B | $19.2B | $19.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $13.4B | $13.7B | $12.6B | $10.4B | $11.2B |
| Gross Profit | $8.8B | $10.1B | $8.5B | $8.9B | $8.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $6.7B | $7.7B | $7.1B | $7.3B | $7.9B |
| Operating Income | $2.2B | $2.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $782.0M |
| Net Income | $1.6B | $4.3B | $665.0M | $1.3B | $651.0M |
| EBITDA | $3.2B | $3.5B | $2.9B | $3.4B | $2.3B |
| EPS | $0.29 | $0.76 | $0.12 | $0.23 | $0.11 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: May 20, 2026 3:52pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.7B | $5.5B | $6.2B | $6.6B | $5.5B |
| Total Current Assets | $19.6B | $20.3B | $18.2B | $18.0B | $15.8B |
| Total Assets | $40.0B | $42.9B | $39.9B | $39.1B | $37.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $12.1B | $12.8B | $10.9B | $11.4B | $10.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $4.5B | $4.2B | $3.6B | $2.9B | $3.1B |
| Total Liabilities | $22.6B | $21.5B | $19.2B | $18.4B | $16.5B |
| Total Equity | $17.4B | $21.3B | $20.5B | $20.7B | $21.0B |
| Retained Earnings | -$2.5B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $2.0B | $1.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: May 20, 2026 3:52pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.6B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $2.5B | $2.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$560.0M | -$601.0M | -$652.0M | -$472.0M | -$606.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | $873.0M | $665.0M | $2.0B | $1.5B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$33.0M | -$17.0M | -$2.0M | $193.0M | -$1.7B |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | -$300.0M | -$300.0M | -$680.0M | -$624.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$249.0M | -$1.2B | $767.0M | $389.0M | -$1.2B |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: May 24, 2026 1:36pm (just now)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$22.5B $22.0B – $23.5B
|
$23.8B $23.2B – $24.8B
|
$25.0B $24.3B – $26.0B
|
$24.7B $24.1B – $25.7B
|
| EBITDA |
$3.2B $3.2B – $3.4B
|
$3.4B $3.4B – $3.6B
|
$3.6B $3.5B – $3.8B
|
$3.6B $3.5B – $3.7B
|
| Net Income |
$2.2B $2.0B – $2.7B
|
$2.5B $2.4B – $2.7B
|
$2.8B $2.7B – $2.9B
|
$3.6B $3.5B – $3.8B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: May 20, 2026 3:52pm (3d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +7.0% | -11.0% | -9.1% | +3.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +14.3% | -15.4% | +3.7% | -2.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +13.3% | -39.9% | +8.2% | -50.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +161.9% | -84.4% | +92.0% | -49.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +9.4% | -17.5% | +17.9% | -34.3% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: May 20, 2026 3:52pm (3d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | $0.05 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-04-28 | 2026-05-12 |
| 2026-02-03 | $0.04 | 2025-02-03 | 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-18 |
| 2025-10-28 | $0.03 | 2025-02-03 | 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-12 |
| 2025-07-29 | $0.05 | 2025-02-03 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-08-12 |
| 2025-05-05 | $0.04 | 2025-02-03 | 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-02-04 | $0.03 | 2024-01-26 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-02-18 |
| 2024-10-22 | $0.03 | 2024-01-26 | 2024-10-22 | 2024-11-05 |
| 2024-07-23 | $0.03 | 2024-01-26 | 2024-07-23 | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-04-22 | $0.04 | 2024-01-26 | 2024-04-23 | 2024-05-08 |
| 2024-01-29 | $0.03 | 2023-02-06 | 2024-01-30 | 2024-02-13 |
| 2023-10-23 | $0.03 | 2023-02-06 | 2023-10-24 | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-07-24 | $0.03 | 2023-02-06 | 2023-07-25 | 2023-08-08 |
| 2023-04-24 | $0.03 | 2023-02-06 | 2023-04-25 | 2023-05-09 |
| 2023-01-30 | $0.02 | 2022-12-13 | 2023-01-31 | 2023-02-14 |
| 2022-10-24 | $0.02 | 2022-10-20 | 2022-10-25 | 2022-11-08 |
| 2022-07-25 | $0.02 | 2022-07-21 | 2022-07-26 | 2022-08-09 |
| 2022-05-02 | $0.02 | 2022-04-28 | 2022-05-03 | 2022-05-17 |
| 2019-07-29 | $0.06 | 2019-03-29 | 2019-07-30 | 2019-08-13 |
| 2019-05-22 | $0.06 | 2019-03-29 | 2019-05-23 | 2019-06-11 |
| 2018-05-31 | $0.24 | 2018-03-27 | 2018-06-01 | 2018-06-18 |
Narrative Economics
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue is genuinely soft. Q1 2026 at $4.50B is only 2.5% above Q1 2025's $4.39B, and the seasonal Q4 prints ($5.98B → $6.13B) show roughly 2.5% YoY — that's not "accelerating" in any meaningful sense, it's flat with noise. Net income is the bigger problem: ex-Q4 seasonality, Nokia is running at $78-90M per quarter, implying a normalized non-Q4 run-rate around $330M annualized, with Q4s contributing the bulk. 2025 full-year NI of $651M is down 49% from 2024's $1.28B, and operating income collapsed from $1.59B to $782M — a 51% drop on essentially flat revenue. That's margin destruction, not stabilization. Gross margin held at 43.5% but operating margin fell to 3.9%, meaning opex is the leak.
The pre-flight "deep value at 5x normalized FCF" framing deserves pushback. FCF of $1.47B on a $74.7B market cap is ~50x, not 5x — I think they meant 5x EV/FCF on some normalized basis, but reported FCF CAGR of 48.4% is almost entirely a base-effect artifact off a depressed prior year, not a trend. EV/EBITDA at 31x and P/E at 64x are not deep-value multiples; they're growth multiples on a business with -3% revenue CAGR and negative earnings CAGR. The synthesis verdict of "Disconnected from Fundamentals" is directionally right but I'd sharpen it: this isn't a melting ice cube priced for irrelevance, it's a structurally challenged equipment vendor priced as if the Infinera acquisition and Nvidia partnership rumors will rerate the model. ROIC of 2.7% is below any reasonable cost of capital — Nokia is destroying economic value at current returns.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: Nokia's network infrastructure segment is levered to AI datacenter optical/IP buildout (Infinera closed in early 2025), and the patent licensing book throws off ~€1.4B at near-100% margins which masks how bad the equipment business actually is. If you strip licensing, the equipment ROIC is probably negative. The 2.55% dividend and €5.46B cash cushion provide a floor, and the stock has rerated from $3-4 range (2020) to $13.83 on hopes — meaning anyone buying here is paying for execution that hasn't shown up in the P&L yet. Ericsson trades at ~16x earnings with better margins; Nokia at 64x TTM P/E is the expensive way to play telecom equipment. The "Below Sector Benchmarks" signal is accurate and material.
I dissent partially with the synthesis — I agree the multiple is disconnected, but I think the framing of "the market expects transformation" understates a simpler explanation: the stock is being held up by AI-infrastructure narrative flows and a weak dollar (Nokia reports in EUR, ADR benefits from EUR strength). On fundamentals alone, fair value on $651M normalized NI at a generous 15x mature-industrial multiple is ~$9.8B equity for the earnings stream, plus maybe $15-20B for patents and net cash — call it $25-30B, or $4.50-5.50/share. Even being generous and capitalizing FCF at $1.47B × 15x = $22B plus $5.5B net cash = $27.5B, or ~$5/share. Getting to $13.83 requires either accepting that 2024's $1.28B NI is the normalized number (then ~$8-9 fair value at 15x) or believing in margin recovery to 8-10% operating that hasn't been demonstrated in any quarter except seasonal Q4s. The bull case requires Q4 2025's 8.8% net margin to become the run-rate, not the exception — and Q1 2026 at 1.9% says the opposite.
GPT Critique
The raw data on Nokia presents a company in a precarious position, grappling with structural challenges and fluctuating profitability. Revenue trends suggest stagnation, with a slight year-over-year increase in Q1 2026 to $4.50B from $4.39B in Q1 2025, and a meager bump from $5.98B to $6.13B in Q4 year-over-year comparisons. This reflects a company facing headwinds in achieving substantial growth despite a revenue base hovering around $19-20B annually. What stands out to me is the stark contrast between revenue and net income trajectories; 2025 saw a near 50% drop in net income to $651M from $1.28B in 2024, despite relatively flat revenue. Operating income has similarly halved, indicating severe margin pressures, perhaps exacerbated by increasing operational expenses or competitive pricing pressures in a commoditizing market.
On the balance sheet, Nokia holds a substantial cash reserve of $5.46B, which might provide some cushion, yet the cash flow statement reveals limited free cash flow growth at $1.47B, suggesting underlying operational struggles. The canonical metrics further paint a picture of inefficiency, with a high P/E ratio of 64x and a low ROIC of 2.7%, implying the destruction of economic value given likely cost of capital figures. This raises red flags about Nokia’s valuation as a deep-value play.
I largely agree with Opus’s assessment that Nokia is overvalued based on its current earnings fundamentals. They accurately highlight the disconnect between Nokia’s high valuation multiples and its negative earnings growth trajectory. I concur that the current market cap of $74.69B seems to factor in optimistic scenarios around AI/optical plays and partnerships that have yet to materialize in financials. Opus’s assertion that the stock is priced as if the Infinera acquisition and Nvidia partnership will rerate the business is supported by the lack of demonstrated operational margin improvements outside of seasonal Q4s. The suggestion that Nokia’s equipment business is possibly masking its inefficiencies through high-margin patent licensing revenues resonates with my view that the core business is underperforming.
Where I diverge from Opus is in their narrative framing around Nokia's market expectations. While Opus suggests the market is overly optimistic on transformative growth narratives, I believe the stock’s elevated price is more a reflection of speculative interest in AI and macroeconomic currency factors, as Opus later acknowledges. Additionally, I find the fair value estimate of $7-9 per share more conservative than I would propose; I would argue a range closer to $9-10, factoring in the patent licensing and net cash more generously, though still significantly lower than the current trading price.
A careful skeptic would argue that both our analyses might underestimate the potential for Nokia’s strategic pivot towards high-margin software and services, which could still yield long-term value if executed successfully. They might also point to the potential upside from unforeseen market dynamics in 5G infrastructure and AI-driven network demands, which could reframe Nokia's valuation narrative.