Skip to main content
Homepage
Full 18-step deep-dive · ~20–30 min · a member feature.
AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
These price targets were computed from last year's numbers — and this year is going noticeably worse. Projection assumes +27.0% growth but recent quarters show operating income -21.6% YoY (through 2026-06-30) — annual-baselined fair values are likely stale-high. Until the statements catch up, read the growth-based fair values (DCF, anchored) as a best case, not a target; the EPV floor (worth with zero growth assumed) and the current market price are the trustworthy numbers right now.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +11 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 75 · Value -41 · Sentiment -25 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $90.39 vs $115.50 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

ServiceNow, Inc.

NOW NYSE
Technology · Software - Application
Santa Clara, CA 95054, United States servicenow.com Updated Aug 3, 12:35pm
Price
$115.32
Market Cap
$115.0B
Employees
29,187
Beta
0.96
Avg Volume
24,716,180
Last Dividend
$1.27
CEO
Mr. William R. McDermott

ServiceNow, Inc. provides a cloud-based workflow automation platform designed for digital businesses worldwide. Its flagship Now Platform integrates artificial intelligence and machine learning to streamline end-to-end processes across enterprises. The company offers solutions in key areas including IT service management, IT operations management, security operations, asset management, integrated risk management, strategic portfolio management, customer service management, field service management, human resources delivery, legal and contract operations, workplace service delivery, and source-to-pay operations. Additional tools encompass the app engine for custom development, automation engine, platform privacy and security features, RaptorDB for scalable data management, and ServiceNow Impact for AI-driven recommendations and guided plans. ServiceNow serves diverse sectors such as government, financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, public sector, retail, technology, and telecom through service providers and resale partners. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, ServiceNow plays a pivotal role in enabling efficient digital transformation and operational agility for organizations globally.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 12:48pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$115.27
as of Aug 3, 12:53pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+4.04 (+3.63%)
Day Range
$113.72 – $119.62
52-Week Range
$81.24 – $194.73
50-Day MA
$105.86
200-Day MA
$124.58
Volume
3,247,948.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,033,862,000.00
Float 1,031,318,699.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:59pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:58pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:43pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
69.05
Stock Price: $115.32
EPS (Diluted): 1.67
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
9.31
Stock Price: $115.32
Total Equity: $12.96B
Shares: 1,046,691,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
45.21
Market Cap: $115.00B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $3.73B
EBITDA: $2.56B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$115.8B
Market Cap: $115.00B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $3.73B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
77.5%
Gross Profit: $10.30B
Revenue: $13.28B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
13.7%
Operating Income: $1.82B
Revenue: $13.28B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
13.2%
Net Income: $1.75B
Revenue: $13.28B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
13.5%
Net Income: $1.75B
Total Equity: $12.96B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
15.3%
Operating Income: $1.82B
Tax Rate: 22.7%
Equity: $12.96B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $3.73B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.00
Current Assets: $10.47B
Current Liabilities: $10.44B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $12.96B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$12.69
Revenue: $13.28B
Shares: 1,046,691,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$12.39
Total Equity: $12.96B
Shares: 1,046,691,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.37
Operating CF: $5.44B
CapEx: -$868.00M
Shares: 1,046,691,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.1%
Last Dividend: $1.27
Stock Price: $115.32
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.75B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:43pm
Compares NOW against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:58pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $5.9B $7.2B $9.0B $11.0B $13.3B
Cost of Revenue $1.4B $1.6B $1.9B $2.3B $3.0B
Gross Profit $4.5B $5.7B $7.1B $8.7B $10.3B
Operating Expenses $4.3B $5.3B $6.3B $7.3B $8.5B
Operating Income $257.0M $355.0M $762.0M $1.4B $1.8B
Net Income $230.1M $325.0M $1.7B $1.4B $1.7B
EBITDA $729.0M $788.0M $1.3B $1.9B $2.6B
EPS $0.23 $0.32 $1.70 $1.38 $1.69
EPS (Diluted) $0.23 $0.32 $1.68 $1.37 $1.67
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:36pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.7B $1.5B $1.9B $2.3B $3.7B
Total Current Assets $5.2B $6.7B $7.8B $9.2B $10.5B
Total Assets $10.8B $13.3B $17.4B $20.4B $26.0B
Current Liabilities $4.9B $6.0B $7.4B $8.4B $10.4B
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $7.1B $8.3B $9.8B $10.8B $13.1B
Total Equity $3.7B $5.0B $7.6B $9.6B $13.0B
Retained Earnings -$4.0M $338.0M $2.1B $3.5B $5.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:58pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.2B $2.7B $3.4B $4.3B $5.4B
Capital Expenditure -$392.0M -$550.0M -$694.0M -$852.0M -$868.0M
Free Cash Flow $1.8B $2.2B $2.7B $3.4B $4.6B
Acquisitions (net) -$785.0M -$91.0M -$282.0M -$113.0M -$1.1B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 $0
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$538.0M -$696.0M -$1.8B
Net Change in Cash $53.0M -$257.0M $429.0M $406.0M $1.4B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:58pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +22.9% +23.8% +22.4% +20.9%
Gross Profit Growth +24.9% +24.3% +23.4% +18.4%
Operating Income Growth +38.1% +114.6% +79.0% +33.7%
Net Income Growth +41.2% +432.6% -17.7% +22.7%
EBITDA Growth +8.1% +68.0% +45.6% +32.9%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:36pm (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2006-09-22 $0.32
2006-06-22 $0.32
2006-03-23 $0.32
2005-12-22 $0.32
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 20:16
-0.6 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 51% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 85%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($115.50)
Bull — recovery +41% 13.0% $56.25 -51%
Base — stabilizes +27% 11.3% $34.14 -70%
Bear — keeps slipping +14% 9.6% $19.88 -83%
Stress — last quarter repeats +24% 5.7% $17.07 -85%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-06-30) — growth stays at 24.0% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +23.1% · operating income -17.8% · net income -9.2% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 30, 2026 (revenue +24.0%, operating income -54.8% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for NOW — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 12:57:40
Verdict Modestly undervalued if $115 print is accurate — fair value $128-140 on FCF, but Q2'26 margin collapse to 7.5% is the swing factor; starter position, add on Q3 margin recovery confirmation.

Starting with the raw tape: revenue has marched from $2.80B (Q3'24) to $3.99B (Q2'26), a clean ~43% two-year gain with sequential growth every quarter — that's genuine 20%+ compounding at $16B run-rate, which is rare. But net income tells a different story: $432M → $502M → $385M → $460M → $502M → $401M → $469M → $298M. The most recent quarter's 7.5% net margin is the worst in the series and roughly half the 14-15% run-rate from a year ago. Operating margin at the annual level (13.7%) is fine, but the Q2'26 print suggests either heavy AI capex flowing through opex, stock-comp acceleration, or a one-time hit. FCF at $4.58B on $13.28B revenue (34% FCF margin) is the number that actually justifies a premium — this is a cash machine with zero debt and $3.73B cash. ROIC of 15% on a capital-light software model is decent but not extraordinary.

The valuation math is where I part company with the synthesis. A composite fair value of $85 that gets "signal-adjusted" up to $129 to manufacture a +12% upside is exactly the kind of reverse-engineering I distrust — you don't get to +12% by starting at -26%. At $115.32 and a $115B market cap, the stock trades at ~25x FCF and ~9x sales. For a business growing revenue 21% with 34% FCF margins and no leverage, that is not obviously expensive — it's roughly a PEG-adjusted market multiple for a category leader. The 69x P/E is a red herring inflated by SBC and the Q2'26 earnings dip; on FCF the story is much cleaner. However, I want to flag the elephant: the quoted market cap of $115B at $115.32 implies ~1B shares, which is roughly correct, but ServiceNow's actual recent trading range has been $700-1000+, not $115. Either this is a heavily stale/adjusted price feed or a data error — an 85% drawdown in NOW would be headline news and wholly inconsistent with the "fundamentals holding" narrative. Every downstream valuation conclusion is suspect until this is reconciled.

Assuming the $115 price is real for argument's sake: the pre-flight note that the stock is "40% off recent highs" plus insider activity skewed toward awards with only small sales (1,595 and 1,048 shares — trivial) would be constructive. The market-forces "show me" framing is fair — margin recovery in H2'26 is the swing factor, and Microsoft Copilot/Power Automate bundling is a real, not theoretical, threat to the Now Platform's ITSM moat. The narrative layer's "anchored/moderate intensity" read is the most honest piece of the prior work: this is no longer a story stock, it's a compounder being repriced. A contrarian would argue (a) revenue deceleration is masked by cRPO pull-forwards and federal deals that don't repeat, (b) the Q2'26 margin collapse is the leading edge of AI-infrastructure cost absorption that GenAI SaaS peers haven't yet confessed to, and (c) at $16B revenue, the law of large numbers means 20% growth becomes 15% within 24 months, at which point 9x sales looks rich, not cheap.

Net: I dissent from the synthesis's "+12% upside to $129" as an artifact of signal-adjustment gymnastics, but I land in a similar zip code on direction — modestly undervalued if you trust the price input. On fundamentals alone (34% FCF margin, 21% growth, zero debt, category leadership), fair value on 28-30x FCF is $128-140B market cap, i.e., $128-140/share, implying 10-20% upside. The risk is not the multiple, it's the Q2'26 margin print being a trend rather than a blip — if Q3 prints another sub-10% net margin, the FCF thesis breaks and $95 becomes the floor. I'd size a starter here, not a full position, and make the next earnings print the arbiter. The models are directionally right but arrived there via a suspiciously convenient adjustment; the underlying business is stronger than a 69x headline P/E suggests and weaker than the platform-monopoly narrative claims.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 12:57:57
Verdict Fairly valued around $115 — best-in-class software economics justify a premium, but inconsistent GAAP margin progression keeps fair value closer to $105-$125 than a clear bargain.

What stands out first is that the business itself is still excellent, but the stock setup is much less exciting than the quality of the company. ServiceNow has grown annual revenue from $5.9B in 2021 to $13.28B in 2025, a 22%-ish compound rate at meaningful scale, and the quarterly run-rate is still healthy: June 2026 revenue of $3.99B was up 23.9% from $3.22B a year earlier, actually an acceleration from the roughly 22% annual growth seen in 2025. Gross margin remains elite at 77.5%, operating margin improved to 13.7% in 2025 from 12.4% in 2024 and 8.5% in 2023, and free cash flow of $4.58B on $13.28B of revenue is a 34.5% FCF margin. With $3.73B of cash and no debt, this is a fortress SaaS model. On business quality alone, the “mature but still compounding platform” case is easy to make.

The wrinkle is that reported earnings quality is less clean than the topline and cash flow suggest. Quarterly net margins have swung from 15.4% in 2024’s September quarter to just 7.5% in June 2026, despite continued scale. Annual net income was $1.73B in 2023, then oddly lower at $1.43B in 2024 before rebounding to $1.75B in 2025, even as revenue climbed steadily from $8.97B to $10.98B to $13.28B. That pattern says GAAP profitability is still noisy, likely reflecting stock comp and other below-the-line effects that keep P/E less useful than FCF, but it also means investors shouldn’t casually underwrite a smooth margin expansion story. At $115.32 and $115B market cap, the stock trades around 8.7x EV/revenue, 45x EV/EBITDA, 69x earnings, and roughly 25x trailing free cash flow. For a company still growing around 20% with this balance sheet, that is not crazy; for a company already at nearly $16B forward revenue run-rate and showing inconsistent quarterly net margins, it is not cheap either.

That is why I don’t buy the more optimistic implication in the model outputs, especially the valuation synthesis contradiction that says fair value is above the current price while “all three valuation methods agree” the stock is overvalued. The raw numbers do not support a strong undervaluation call. If I annualize the latest quarter, revenue is about $16.0B. Even giving ServiceNow a premium 9x sales on that run-rate yields an enterprise value around $144B; after adding net cash, that is only modestly above today’s market cap and assumes the current ~21%-24% growth holds without a more serious margin wobble. A more conservative 7x-8x on forward revenue, which is hardly punitive for a dominant software asset in a tougher multiple regime, gets you to a valuation range that brackets the current stock rather than screaming upside. My read is simple: wonderful company, but the stock already knows it.

The best case against my caution is that I may be underweighting just how rare this combination is: 20%+ growth at almost $4B per quarter of revenue, 77% gross margins, 34%+ FCF margins, no debt, and a category position strong enough to keep expanding across IT, HR, customer workflows, and now AI-enabled automation. If free cash flow keeps compounding near the 30% rate cited while GAAP margins normalize upward, today’s 25x FCF could prove attractive in hindsight, especially if the market is indeed valuing the stock 40% below prior highs. There is also evidence the feared slowdown is not showing up in the actual reported numbers: the latest quarter’s 23.9% revenue growth was better than the 20.9% “recent revenue yoy” metric, and net income rose from $385M to $298M? No — that quarter actually weakened on margin, but compared with the year-ago June quarter, June 2026 net income of $298M versus $385M is a decline even as revenue rose sharply, which is exactly why I’m not willing to pay up purely for narrative. A bull would argue that this is temporary investment noise; I think the burden is on management to prove that.

What would change my mind is straightforward. I would turn more bullish if the next two quarters show revenue sustaining above 20% while net margin returns to the 12%-15% range seen through most of 2025, or if operating income starts scaling faster than revenue so that the 13.7% annual operating margin moves toward 16%-18%. That would justify a premium multiple and make $130+ reasonable. I would get more negative if growth slips into the mid-teens while EV/revenue stays near 9x, or if free cash flow margin falls materially below 30%, because then the market would be paying a premium for a decelerating large-cap SaaS asset without commensurate margin expansion. Until one of those happens, this looks priced about right, with only limited upside and real execution risk underneath the surface-level quality.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 12:58:41
Verdict High-quality compounder modestly cheap at $115 vs ~$130 FCF-supported value; 25x FCF for 21% growth is attractive if margins stabilize

ServiceNow’s numbers describe a rare franchise that is still compounding at scale: revenue climbed from $5.90B in 2021 to $13.28B in 2025, a 21.7% CAGR, and the most recent quarter printed $3.99B, up roughly 24% from the $3.22B year-ago period. Gross margin sits at 77.5% and free cash flow hit $4.58B against only $868M of capex, a 34.5% FCF margin that makes the 69x trailing P/E look like an accounting artifact rather than an economic one—on FCF the stock trades near 25x. Operating income has marched from $257M to $1.82B over the same five-year span while the balance sheet carries zero debt and $3.73B in cash. That combination of durable mid-20s growth, elite cash conversion, and a fortress balance sheet is the core story; the platform land-and-expand model is visibly still working at $13B-plus of revenue.

What stands out on the debit side is the sharp compression in the June 2026 quarter: net margin collapsed to 7.5% ($298M NI on $3.99B revenue) from the 12–15% range that had prevailed for two years. Earnings CAGR of only 0.5% is distorted by the 2023 NI spike to $1.73B, but the sequential drop still flags either heavy AI investment, stock-based compensation, or early signs of pricing pressure. Secondary signals correctly flag decelerating revenue momentum and macro headwinds for discretionary SaaS budgets. At 9.1x sales and 45x EV/EBITDA the multiple still embeds an assumption that 15–20% growth and margin recovery both materialize; any stumble hands the stock back to the mid-$80s composite fair-value anchor the models produced before quality adjustments.

The prior valuation synthesis itself contains the contradiction worth catching: a raw composite of $85 labeled “overvalued” sits beside a signal-adjusted $129 that implies 12% upside from $115. I side with the adjusted figure because FCF quality, zero leverage, and a still-intact 21% growth rate at this scale justify a premium to static DCF. The narrative layer has already de-rated—the stock is described as trading ~11% below DCF with only moderate narrative intensity—so the easy multiple compression appears largely complete. Microsoft’s Copilot/Power Automate bundling remains the clearest existential risk, yet ServiceNow’s switching costs and workflow depth have historically blunted point-solution and suite attacks; until win-rate data shows otherwise, that threat is priced more heavily than the cash-flow evidence warrants.

The strongest opposing case is straightforward: you are paying 69x earnings and 9x sales for a company whose growth is rolling over, whose latest net margin just halved, and whose addressable wallet share is now contested by the largest software vendor on earth inside a tightening IT budget cycle. A smart bear simply notes that FCF margins in the mid-30s are already best-in-class and therefore have limited further expansion, so any growth deceleration below 15% leaves the multiple unsupported. I weigh that less heavily because the absolute FCF dollar growth (30% CAGR) and the absence of debt give management time and optionality that pure P/E comparisons ignore; the margin dip is one quarter, not a trend, and subscription visibility remains high.

I would flip to outright bearish if two consecutive quarters show revenue growth sustaining under 15% or if operating margin fails to reclaim 14% by the December 2026 print; conversely, evidence that AI agents are driving net-new ACV expansion above 25% or a material step-up in large-deal win rates against Microsoft would push me to a high-conviction buy above $140.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 6.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 7.0
undervalued · conviction 2/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.7 vs panel · self: 5.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.3 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 13:41:50
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - starter only, wait for a dip 7/10
ServiceNow is a Fortress-quality compounder trading at fair value with a softening narrative, so this is a name to accumulate on weakness, not chase here.
The cruxWhether the stock trades back into the $90s on the Copilot/SaaS-derate template - that is the difference between a starter and a real position.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from NOW's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+75
Fortress
edge √Σ 147 · risk √Σ 49 · conf 8/10

Revenue has scaled from 5.90B in 2021 to 13.28B in 2025 (a ~22% CAGR), while gross margin has held in a tight 77-79% band and operating margin has expanded from 4.4% to 13.7%. Free cash flow has grown from 1.80B to 4.58B, and OCF/NI of 5.19x with accruals at -14.8% of assets indicate that reported earnings are conservatively stated relative to cash generation. Beneish M of -2.92 and Altman Z of 6.3 corroborate a clean, low-manipulation-risk profile.

Strengths 4
m85
Operating leverage is real
Op margin expanded from 4.4% (2021) to 13.7% (2025) while revenue more than doubled - genuine scaling, not accounting flattery.
m80
FCF conversion is elite
FCF grew from 1.80B to 4.58B; OCF/NI 5.19x and accruals -14.8% of assets confirm cash-backed earnings.
m70
Fortress balance sheet
3.73B net cash with no debt drag; Altman Z of 6.3 places it well inside the safe zone.
m55
Contained dilution
Diluted share CAGR ~0.8% (1.02B to 1.05B over 4 years) despite 14.7%-of-revenue SBC - unusual discipline for a growth-stage software name.
Concerns 3
m40
SBC is heavy and buybacks only mop up ~39%
SBC at 14.7% of revenue is a real economic cost; repurchases recover under 40% of it, so per-share value protection depends on continued margin expansion.
m25
Net income lumpiness
Net income of 1.73B in 2023 fell to 1.43B in 2024 before recovering to 1.75B in 2025 - likely tax/valuation-allowance effects; worth confirming as non-operational.
m15
Small insider selling, no buys
6 sells ($2.7M) and 0 open-market buys in TTM; small and typical, but no directional conviction from insiders.
This looks like a genuinely high-quality enterprise-software franchise. The trajectory - revenue more than doubling while operating margin triples and FCF grows 2.5x - is the shape you want to see, and the forensic checks all line up: cash exceeds earnings by a wide margin, accruals are deeply negative, and the balance sheet is fortress-grade. The one honest caveat is SBC intensity: 14.7% of revenue is a large real cost and buybacks only neutralize ~40% of it, so shareholders are relying on continued operating-leverage expansion to keep per-share economics improving. Insider activity is a non-signal. Overall this is a Strong-to-Fortress business, comfortably above 87 but not yet in the 'essentially nothing soft' tier.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Drivers of 2024 net income dip vs 2023 - tax rate, valuation allowance release timing, or one-time charges
  • Customer concentration and net revenue retention trajectory in latest 10-K
  • SBC composition (RSU vs performance shares) and whether buyback pace scales with SBC growth
  • Any off-balance-sheet obligations or convertible/deferred consideration in the notes
  • Segment/geographic exposure and federal/public sector dependence
Valuation / Mispricing
-41
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 50 · risk √Σ 94 · conf 6/10
Price $115.50 vs deserved ~$115-130 (DCF $97, signal-adj FV $129) - roughly 0-12% gap, inside the noise band. attractive below $95.00

The e2e composite FV of $85 pulls in a $17.93 EPV floor that clearly under-weights a growing SaaS platform, so the more defensible anchor is the DCF at $97 and the signal-adjusted FV of $129. Splitting the difference and giving credit for Fortress-grade quality (expanding margins, clean accruals, fortress balance sheet, high earnings quality) lands deserved value in the $110-130 range. Price at $115.50 sits inside that band - essentially fair. What the price appears to embed: continued high-teens revenue growth, further operating margin expansion, and successful monetization of the AI/Co-Pilot layer. That is not heroic for this franchise, but it is also already paid for. The 12% upside to signal-adjusted FV is not a margin of safety once you haircut for 14.7% SBC intensity (real dilution cost) and the competitive overhang from Microsoft Copilot / Power Automate. Bottom line: high quality, correctly recognized. To underwrite a real mispricing I need either a lower entry or evidence the AI attach is accelerating ACV faster than consensus.

Cheap signals 2
m40
Signal-adjusted FV above price
Signal-adjusted FV $129.15 vs $115.50 = ~12% upside - real but not a margin of safety once SBC dilution and execution risk are netted.
m30
Quality tailwind to deserved value
Fortress quality score 75, high earnings quality, expanding margins and 2.5x FCF growth justify a premium multiple - supports deserved value near the top of the FV range.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
Composite FV below price
Composite FV $85 vs price $115.50 implies ~26% downside, though the $17.93 EPV floor is dragging the composite and should be discounted for a growing platform.
m45
SBC dilution taxes deserved value
SBC at 14.7% of revenue is a persistent share-count headwind that the headline FCF-based FVs under-penalize; deserved per-share value should carry a haircut.
m50
Priced for continued platform dominance
At this multiple the market is already paying for AI monetization and sustained high-teens growth; the bear case (MSFT Copilot, macro delays) is not in the price.
m35
DCF below current price
DCF $97.21 vs $115.50 = ~16% overvaluation on the single most defensible method - a caution flag against calling this cheap.
This is a great business at a fair price, which means my edge here is thin. The signal-adjusted FV gives me 12% upside; the DCF says I am paying 16% over. Split the difference and I am buying quality at par - fine to hold, not compelling to accumulate. I would want it closer to $95 before I would call it a real valuation opportunity; anywhere in the $110s I am just paying rent on the platform premium.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • cRPO and net new ACV trajectory to confirm the growth assumption embedded in signal-adj FV
  • AI Pro/Plus attach rates and pricing uplift disclosed on the transcript
  • SBC as % of revenue trend and net dilution rate
  • Any macro-driven deal-slip commentary in guidance
  • Federal/public sector renewal cadence
General Sentiment
-25
Balanced
tail √Σ 60 · head √Σ 85 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly constructive (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs) and beta near 1.0 means NOW neither benefits nor suffers disproportionately from index moves. The clearer sentiment force is sector-specific: capital is rotating out of semis into enterprise software this week, which mechanically lifts large-cap SaaS names like NOW. That is a real, if shallow, tailwind. Working against it, the active narrative is losing intensity. The bear case (Microsoft Copilot + Power Automate encroachment, SaaS bloat scrutiny, discretionary software delays) is exactly what news flow is reinforcing: Goldman just added MSFT to its Conviction List, Salesforce and Palantir are being publicly re-rated lower on 'growth-slowing-at-a-premium-multiple' fears, and NOW itself just cut ~300 Silicon Valley jobs, a tell that management sees demand softening. Analyst tone on the peer group (CRM, PLTR) is turning contrarian-bullish only AFTER 30% drawdowns, which is not a template NOW wants to follow. Net: the durable platform narrative still has cult support, but it is no longer expanding, and the incremental headline flow leans negative on NOW specifically while the tape leans positive on software broadly. Those roughly cancel.

Tailwinds 3
m45
Software rotation bid
Active rotation out of semis into enterprise software this week, with MSFT rallying and Goldman elevating it. NOW is a default beneficiary of that flow as a large-cap SaaS bellwether.
m25
Neutral-positive macro tape
Regime +22, VIX 16, index near highs. With beta ~0.96 NOW gets an ordinary market tailwind, nothing amplified.
m30
Durable platform cult still intact
Narrative is rated durable with medium cult coefficient. The core holder base is not capitulating, which puts a floor under sentiment even as intensity fades.
Headwinds 4
m55
Microsoft Copilot overhang on the narrative
MSFT being anointed by Goldman while Copilot/Power Automate is repeatedly cited as the competitive threat directly erodes NOW's platform-monopoly story. This is the exact bear thesis gaining airtime.
m45
Layoff signal
300 Silicon Valley cuts land as a soft-demand tell for a company whose bull case rests on land-and-expand. Optically bad in a tape already scrutinizing SaaS bloat.
m40
Peer de-rating template (CRM, PLTR)
Salesforce -30% YTD and Palantir -30% despite beats show the market is punishing premium-multiple SaaS names for slowing growth. NOW fits the same profile and the narrative premium is already visibly compressing.
m25
Fading narrative intensity
Intensity is only moderate and the story is described as having little speculative premium left. That means limited upside from narrative re-acceleration absent a fresh AI catalyst.
Net I read this as genuinely balanced, leaning a hair negative. The software rotation is a real but shallow bid, and NOW's beta near 1 means the friendly macro tape helps only modestly. The more durable force is the slow erosion of the platform-monopoly narrative under Microsoft Copilot headlines plus a layoff that reads as demand-softening. The stock is not in a sentiment crisis - the cult is intact and there is no capitulation event - but the direction of narrative travel is down while the tape is up, and those roughly offset. I would not fight the tape here, but I would not expect sentiment alone to carry this name higher.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether NOW gets specifically called out (positively or negatively) on Copilot competitive dynamics in next earnings
  • Whether the software-over-semis rotation persists beyond a week or fizzles
  • Any Goldman/large-bank conviction-list moves that add or drop NOW
  • Guidance tone following the 300-person layoff - reorg or demand tell
  • Whether CRM and PLTR reversals stick, setting a peer-group sentiment floor
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat -1.0% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, NOW was $114.19. We expect it to be $113.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $95.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$114.19
Our estimate for Feb 2027$113.00-1.0%
Great value below$95.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for NOW. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06