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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 26, 2026
11 days ago · 100% complete

ServiceNow, Inc.

NOW NYSE Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Application
Santa Clara, CA 95054, United States IPO 2012 servicenow.com Updated Jun 26, 3:07am
Price
$89.52
Market Cap
$92.3B
Employees
26,293
Beta
0.93
Avg Volume
28,764,896
CEO
William R. McDermott

ServiceNow, Inc. specializes in delivering cloud-based solutions designed to streamline and automate critical business services for organizations across the globe. Its flagship "Now Platform" serves as the foundation, leveraging technologies such as workflow automation, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and robotic process automation (RPA). This platform also incorporates robust features like performance analytics, electronic service catalogs, configuration management systems, data benchmarking, encryption capabilities, and various collaboration and development tools. ServiceNow offers a comprehensive suite of applications built on this platform, catering to diverse enterprise needs. Key offerings include IT Service Management (ITSM), which streamlines support for employees, customers, and partners; IT Business Management (ITBM); IT Operations Management (ITOM), designed to integrate and manage both physical and cloud-based IT infrastructure; and IT Asset Management (ITAM) for automating asset lifecycles. Its Security Operations solution facilitates seamless integration between internal systems and third-party security tools. Beyond IT, the company provides solutions for Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) to enhance organizational resilience, along with tools for Human Resources, Legal, and general workplace service delivery, including dedicated safe workplace applications. Other specialized applications cover Customer Service Management (CSM) and Field Service Management (FSM). To further extend functionality, ServiceNow offers App Engine for custom development and IntegrationHub to connect workflows across various applications. The company also provides a range of professional services, industry-specific solutions, and comprehensive customer support. ServiceNow's diverse client base spans critical sectors such as government, financial services, healthcare, telecommunications, manufacturing, and education, alongside various IT services, technology, oil and gas, and consumer product industries. The company reaches these customers through a combination of its direct sales force and a network of resale partners. Notably, a strategic alliance with Celonis assists clients in pinpointing and prioritizing business processes ripe for automation. Established in 2004 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, the company originally operated as Service-now.com before rebranding to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012.

Runs with full report Generated: May 19, 2026 5:44pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$98.34
as of Jun 26, 7:19pm (12d ago)
Change · Jun 26
+8.82 (+9.85%)
Day Range
$90.22 – $98.90
52-Week Range
$81.24 – $211.48
50-Day MA
$99.70
200-Day MA
$134.97
Volume
21,277,668.00
Right now · live
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Real-time — the change above is the move since the report (over 12d).
Analyst Price Targets
Low $85.00
Consensus $150.26
High $236.00
(187 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,031,308,000.00
Float 1,028,750,356.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 7:24pm (11d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 7:24pm (11d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 26, 2026 7:23pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
57.94
Stock Price: $89.52
EPS (Diluted): 1.69
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
12.25
Stock Price: $89.52
Total Equity: $12.96B
Shares: 1,047,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
31.34
Market Cap: $92.32B
Total Debt: $2.40B
Cash: $3.73B
EBITDA: $3.00B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$158.3B
Market Cap: $92.32B
Total Debt: $2.40B
Cash: $3.73B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
77.5%
Gross Profit: $10.30B
Revenue: $13.28B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
13.7%
Operating Income: $1.82B
Revenue: $13.28B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
13.2%
Net Income: $1.75B
Revenue: $13.28B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
15.0%
Net Income: $1.75B
Total Equity: $12.96B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.1%
Operating Income: $1.82B
Tax Rate: 22.7%
Equity: $12.96B
Total Debt: $2.40B
Cash: $3.73B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.95
Current Assets: $9.88B
Current Liabilities: $10.44B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.19
Short-Term Debt: $112.00M
Long-Term Debt: $2.29B
Total Debt: $2.40B
Total Equity: $12.96B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$12.68
Revenue: $13.28B
Shares: 1,047,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$12.38
Total Equity: $12.96B
Shares: 1,047,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.37
Operating CF: $5.44B
CapEx: -$868.00M
Shares: 1,047,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $89.52
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.75B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 7:23pm
Compares NOW against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-26 19:29:19
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - starter now, scale on dip 7/10
Fortress-quality compounder (+100) trading at a fair-but-not-cheap price (-39), with a live software-over-semis tailwind (+68) that earns a starter but not a full position.
The cruxEntry price discipline: at $98 you are paying deserved value for an elite business, so future returns hinge on whether you get a pullback to the high-$70s or have to chase the rotation.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from NOW's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+100
Fortress
edge √Σ 191 · risk √Σ 51 · conf 9/10

ServiceNow is a textbook high-quality enterprise software business. Revenue compounded from $5.90B (2021) to $13.28B (2025), a ~22% CAGR, while operating margin expanded from 4.4% to 13.7% and free cash flow scaled from $1.79B to $4.58B - revenue more than doubled and FCF nearly tripled, demonstrating real operating leverage on a stable ~78% gross margin base. Net cash of $3.88B plus $4.58B/yr FCF means the company is fully self-funding and survival math is a non-issue (Altman Z 5.23). Earnings quality is pristine: OCF/NI of 5.2x, accruals -14.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.9 - cash backs the earnings comfortably and there are no mechanical red flags. Diluted share count crept from 1.02B to 1.05B over five years (0.8% CAGR), so per-share value is genuinely protected despite SBC running at 14.7% of revenue. Buybacks only offset 39.2% of SBC, meaning capital return is essentially a dilution-mop rather than a true shareholder yield, but at this dilution pace it doesn't impair quality. Insider tape is benign - awards and tax-withholding, with only ~$1.9M in small sales over 12 months; no directional signal either way.

Strengths 6
m90
Durable top-line compounding with margin expansion
Revenue $5.90B to $13.28B (2021-2025, ~22% CAGR) while operating margin expanded 4.4% to 13.7% - classic positive operating leverage on a subscription base.
m88
FCF scaling faster than revenue
FCF grew from $1.79B to $4.58B (2.6x) versus revenue 2.25x; FCF margin ~34.5% in 2025 - elite SaaS cash conversion.
m80
Pristine earnings quality
OCF/NI 5.2x, accruals -14.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.9, Altman Z 5.23. Reported numbers are well-backed by cash; no aggressive accounting signals.
m78
Fortress balance sheet
$6.28B liquid cash, $3.88B net cash, self-funding via $4.58B FCF - zero solvency or liquidity risk.
m72
Minimal dilution despite heavy SBC
Diluted shares only grew 1.02B to 1.05B (0.8% CAGR) over five years. Per-share value is protected even with SBC at 14.7% of revenue.
m55
Stable gross margin profile
Gross margin held 77-79% across five years (77.5% in 2025), consistent with a sticky enterprise SaaS workflow platform - implied durable moat.
Concerns 2
m45
SBC is the real comp expense, buybacks only mop dilution
SBC ~14.7% of revenue (~$1.95B) versus buybacks recovering only 39.2% - shareholders effectively fund a large chunk of comp; quality is fine but capital return is not what headline buybacks suggest.
m25
Net income lumpiness from tax/valuation items
Net income jumped to $1.73B in 2023 then dipped to $1.43B in 2024 before recovering to $1.75B in 2025 even as FCF rose steadily - GAAP NI is noisier than the underlying business, worth verifying drivers (likely deferred tax benefit in 2023).
This is a genuinely elite operator. Revenue is compounding north of 20%, margins are expanding the right way, FCF is real and large, the balance sheet is a fortress, dilution is well-contained at under 1% per year, and the mechanical earnings-quality checks are clean across the board. The one honest knock on quality is that SBC at ~15% of revenue is doing more economic work than the buyback line admits, but with diluted shares barely moving the per-share story is intact. Insider tape is a non-event. As a business, this sits firmly in the Fortress bucket - I'd want to verify the durability of growth and the 2023 NI spike, but nothing in the forensic data argues against a top-tier quality grade.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Net revenue retention, cRPO growth, and large-customer ($1M+ ACV) count trajectory in latest 10-K/transcripts to confirm durability of the 20%+ growth.
  • Source of the 2023 net income spike (deferred tax valuation allowance release?) and normalized tax rate going forward.
  • Customer concentration and federal/public-sector exposure (any single-customer or contract-vehicle risk).
  • SBC composition and grant trends - whether per-employee grant levels are stable as headcount grows.
  • AI/Now Assist monetization disclosures to confirm pricing power and durability of GM in the high-70s.
Valuation / Mispricing
-39
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 82 · conf 6/10
Price $98 vs deserved roughly $95-105 - inside the noise band, no meaningful margin of safety either way. attractive below $78.00

ServiceNow is a Fortress-quality compounder, which justifies a premium multiple, but premium and cheap are different things. At $98.34 and ~$92B market cap on a business doing roughly 20%+ revenue growth with expanding FCF margins, the stock is trading on a high-teens to low-20s EV/sales and a forward FCF yield in the low single digits. That is consistent with the bull narrative being substantially embedded in the price, not a discount to it. The e2e synthesis itself flagged 'High Conviction Required' - i.e. no clean cheapness signal even after a quality-adjusted lens.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Quality earns a durable premium
Fortress balance sheet, clean accounting, expanding margins, and sub-1% dilution support a structurally higher deserved multiple than median SaaS - which is why this is 'fair' rather than 'expensive' at today's price.
m25
Reinvestment runway still real
Workflow platform expansion into HR, customer service, and security gives organic growth optionality that the price embeds but does not aggressively overpay for at current levels.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
Premium multiple already prices the platform story
At ~$92B cap on a high-teens EV/sales and low single-digit FCF yield, the 'OS of enterprise workflow' thesis is in the price; you are paying for continued 20%+ compounding, not getting it free.
m45
SBC dilutes the headline FCF
SBC at ~15% of revenue means reported FCF overstates true owner earnings; on an SBC-adjusted basis the cash yield is meaningfully thinner than screens suggest, tightening the deserved-value math.
m40
Heroic assumptions needed for upside from here
To justify material upside, AI monetization has to land AND core ITSM growth has to stay >20% AND the multiple has to hold - any one slipping compresses the stock; e2e tag of 'High Conviction Required' echoes this.
I cannot call this cheap with a straight face at $98 - the platform thesis is in the tape and the FCF yield, ex-SBC, is thin. I also will not short a Fortress-grade compounder just because it is full. This is a hold-quality-at-fair-price setup; I want it roughly 15-20% lower, around $78 or below, before I lean in with new capital. Anywhere in between is fine to own, not a place to add aggressively.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Next quarter cRPO and subscription revenue growth - any deceleration below ~20% is a multiple-compression risk
  • Operating and FCF margin trajectory ex-SBC
  • Concrete AI/Now Assist attach and pricing disclosures in the transcript
  • Net new ACV from non-ITSM workflows to test platform expansion
  • Any change in SBC as a percent of revenue or buyback pace
General Sentiment
+68
Tailwind
tail √Σ 133 · head √Σ 64 · conf 7/10

The tape is nominally neutral with a -3.4% S&P drawdown and VIX 18, but the cross-currents under the surface are exactly what NOW needs: a violent AI selloff is hitting chips and unprofitable AI names while CIO survey data and a Jefferies IT-exec poll explicitly flag ServiceNow as a top pick. NOW ripped ~9% on the session as a direct beneficiary of that rotation, and beta 0.93 means the broader risk-off pulse barely scrapes the name. The platform-monopoly narrative (strong, durable) is being reinforced in real time by spending intentions data, not undermined by it.

Tailwinds 4
m78
Rotation into software, out of semis
Today's tape is a clean software-over-chips rotation and NOW is named in nearly every desk note as a primary beneficiary, driving a ~9% single-day move.
m70
Jefferies CIO survey endorsement
Being one of four names called out by IT execs as the strongest performer is fresh, specific, positive flow that directly feeds the platform-monopoly story.
m60
Analyst tone supportive with upside gap
58 Buys vs 1 Sell and a $150 target vs $98 price gives sell-side cover; recent revisions skew constructive, no visible downgrade wave.
m55
Durable platform narrative reasserting
The bull story (enterprise OS for workflow) is being validated by spending survey data at the exact moment the broader AI-hype narrative is cracking, a favorable narrative handoff for NOW.
Headwinds 3
m45
AI-premium de-rating risk lingers
Ten tech giants are now in bear-market territory on AI-monetization doubts; NOW carries an AI-productivity premium that could get caught if the selloff broadens beyond chips.
m35
Macro: rates and stretched multiples
10y at 4.38% and a -3.4% index drawdown still weigh on long-duration software multiples, though beta 0.93 and profitability mute the hit relative to story stocks.
m30
Competitive narrative noise
UiPath Maestro and hyperscaler workflow encroachment headlines provide an undercurrent that bears can point to if the rotation fades.
The non-fundamental pressure on NOW right now is net positive and stock-specific, not just a market read. A live rotation is pulling capital out of AI semis and into profitable enterprise software, CIO survey work is explicitly tagging ServiceNow as a winner, and the platform-monopoly narrative is getting validated rather than challenged. Beta under 1 and real cash generation insulate it from the risk-off pulse that is mauling story stocks. The risk is that this is a one-day rotation trade and the broader AI de-rating eventually reaches application software, but as of today the tape is pushing this name up, not down.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the software-over-semis rotation persists past 2-3 sessions or unwinds
  • Any crack in the AI-monetization story that spreads from chips into application software
  • Next print's net new ARR and AI SKU attach rate to defend the premium
  • Target revision direction over the next 2 weeks after the rip
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 7:26:27 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 7:24pm (11d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $5.9B $7.2B $9.0B $11.0B $13.3B
Cost of Revenue $1.4B $1.6B $1.9B $2.3B $3.0B
Gross Profit $4.5B $5.7B $7.1B $8.7B $10.3B
Operating Expenses $4.3B $5.3B $6.3B $7.3B $8.5B
Operating Income $257.0M $355.0M $762.0M $1.4B $1.8B
Net Income $230.0M $325.0M $1.7B $1.4B $1.7B
EBITDA $749.0M $768.0M $1.6B $2.2B $3.0B
EPS $0.23 $0.32 $1.70 $1.38 $1.69
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 7:21pm (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.7B $1.5B $1.9B $2.3B $3.7B
Total Current Assets $5.2B $6.7B $7.8B $9.2B $9.9B
Total Assets $10.8B $13.3B $17.4B $20.4B $26.0B
Current Liabilities $4.9B $6.0B $7.4B $8.4B $10.4B
Long-Term Debt $1.5B $1.5B $1.5B $1.5B $2.3B
Total Liabilities $7.1B $8.3B $9.8B $10.8B $13.1B
Total Equity $3.7B $5.0B $7.6B $9.6B $13.0B
Retained Earnings -$4.0M $338.0M $2.1B $3.5B $5.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 12:23am (13d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.2B $2.7B $3.4B $4.3B $5.4B
Capital Expenditure -$399.0M -$550.0M -$694.0M -$852.0M -$868.0M
Free Cash Flow $1.8B $2.2B $2.7B $3.4B $4.6B
Acquisitions (net) -$785.0M -$91.0M -$279.0M -$113.0M -$1.1B
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$538.0M -$696.0M -$1.8B
Net Change in Cash $53.0M -$257.0M $429.0M $406.0M $1.4B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 7:21pm (12d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $19.2B
$18.9B – $19.4B
$22.8B
$22.8B – $22.9B
$26.4B
$26.1B – $27.0B
$30.4B
$30.1B – $31.1B
EBITDA $6.8B
$6.6B – $6.8B
$8.0B
$8.0B – $8.0B
$9.3B
$9.2B – $9.5B
$10.7B
$10.6B – $10.9B
Net Income $5.0B
$4.5B – $5.5B
$6.3B
$4.1B – $8.4B
$7.6B
$7.5B – $7.8B
$9.5B
$9.4B – $9.8B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 7:24pm (11d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +22.9% +23.8% +22.4% +20.9%
Gross Profit Growth +24.9% +24.3% +23.4% +18.4%
Operating Income Growth +38.1% +114.6% +79.0% +33.7%
Net Income Growth +41.3% +432.6% -17.7% +22.7%
EBITDA Growth +2.5% +107.6% +39.6% +34.7%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 7:24pm (11d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 Yuan Eric S. A-Award 2,747.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-28 Briggs Teresa S-Sale 1,595.00 $108.70 $173,377
2026-05-21 Yuan Eric S. 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 LUDDY FREDERIC B A-Award 3,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Briggs Teresa A-Award 3,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Chamberlain Paul Edward A-Award 3,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Jackson Lawrence A-Award 3,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 BOSTROM SUSAN L A-Award 3,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Quinlan Larry A-Award 3,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-21 Sands Anita M A-Award 3,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina M-Exempt 5,602.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina F-InKind 3,012.00 $95.07 $286,351
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina M-Exempt 2,350.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina F-InKind 1,264.00 $95.07 $120,168
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina M-Exempt 1,595.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina F-InKind 858.00 $95.07 $81,570
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina M-Exempt 5,602.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina M-Exempt 2,350.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Mastantuono Gina M-Exempt 1,595.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Nowbar Hossein M-Exempt 2,857.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for NOW — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-26 19:27:04
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

The raw numbers here are genuinely impressive in a way the prior models underweight. Quarterly revenue marched from $2.63B (Q2 '24) to $3.77B (Q1 '26) — that's 43% growth over seven quarters, and the most recent YoY is 20.9% at a $15B+ run-rate. Gross margin sits at 77.5%, FCF was $4.58B on $13.28B revenue (34.5% FCF margin), and operating CF grew to $5.44B. The "decelerating" tag on revenue confidence is technically true (sequential growth rates are easing) but the absolute dollar adds per quarter are accelerating ($150M, $130M, $190M, $160M, $200M sequentially) — that's not a saturation pattern, that's a company still finding new dollars at scale. Net income lumpiness (NI fell from $1.73B in 2023 to $1.43B in 2024 before rebounding to $1.75B in 2025) is tax-driven noise around a deferred tax asset release, not operating deterioration — operating income nearly tripled from $355M (2022) to $1.82B (2025), which is the real signal.

Now the contradiction I want to flag: the prior models can't decide what ServiceNow is. The rule-based classifier calls it "mature earner" (wrong — 21.7% revenue CAGR and 30.1% FCF CAGR are not mature). Pre-flight correctly tags it "high-growth." Market Forces says "fairly valued." Synthesis says "High Conviction Required" citing a 7.0x P/S — but the tile shows P/S of 11.96x and EV/Revenue of 11.92x, so somebody's math is stale or wrong. At $89.52 and $92.3B market cap on $13.28B revenue, P/S is ~7.0x, which means either the share count or the price in the canonical metrics tile is out of date. This matters enormously: 7x sales for a 21% grower with 34% FCF margins is not demanding, while 12x would be. I'll trust the market cap / revenue arithmetic — 7x P/S, ~20x EV/FCF on trailing, closer to 16x on forward FCF if growth holds. That is not a premium multiple for this asset; it's a discount to where NOW historically traded (often 15-20x sales).

The contrarian case: every bull point assumes Microsoft doesn't successfully bundle Copilot-driven workflow automation into M365 E5 at marginal cost, and assumes ServiceNow's seat-based pricing model survives agentic AI (which collapses seat counts). The narrative-economics layer flags this correctly — "AI optionality priced as near-term revenue driver" — but I'd go further: if agents replace 30% of licensed users over five years, NOW's net revenue retention (currently ~98%) cracks below 100% and the entire platform-expansion thesis inverts. Also worth noting: current ratio 0.95 is tight for a company with $3.73B cash (large deferred revenue liability is the offset, which is fine, but it means working capital can't absorb a downturn shock cleanly). Insider data is uninformative — the cluster of identical 3,260-share awards on 2026-05-21 is a standard board grant, not a signal. And the dates themselves (2026-06-15 transactions, Q1 2026 already reported) suggest this dataset is forward-stamped or I'm reading it in mid-2026; either way, $89.52 vs. a 52-week peak materially higher implies a meaningful drawdown has already happened, which the pre-flight notes as "53% drawdown."

I dissent from the synthesis "High Conviction Required" hedge and from Market Forces' "fairly valued" verdict. At $89.52 with 21% revenue growth, 34.5% FCF margins, $4.58B FCF growing 30% CAGR, and a 7x P/S that's compressed roughly 60% from peak, the risk-reward has shifted favorably even if you haircut AI optionality to zero. A simple reverse-DCF: $4.58B FCF growing 15% for five years then 8% terminal at 9% discount → ~$135B equity value, ~$130/share. Even at 10% growth tapering to 5%, you get ~$95-100. The downside case (Microsoft bundling wins, NRR drops to 95%, FCF growth halves to 12% CAGR) still supports $70-75. Asymmetry favors longs. The models are anchored on the 2021-22 peak multiple as the reference frame and treating any premium as su

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-26 19:27:11
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus; ServiceNow is undervalued at $89.52. With substantial growth metrics and a P/S ratio around 7x, I peg fair value closer to $130, given its revenue trajectory and cash flow strength.

ServiceNow's recent financial performance presents a compelling story of growth and profitability. The company's revenue has shown a significant upward trend, climbing from $2.63 billion in Q2 2024 to $3.77 billion in Q1 2026, marking a 43% growth over seven quarters. This is not just a nominal increase; it reflects strong operational momentum, underscored by a robust gross margin of 77.5% and an impressive free cash flow of $4.58 billion, representing a 34.5% FCF margin. Such metrics highlight the company's ability to generate substantial cash from its operations while maintaining profitability. ServiceNow's operating cash flow has also increased to $5.44 billion, indicating efficient cash management and a strong operational backbone.

I align with Claude Opus's assessment that the revenue confidence label of "decelerating" does not fully capture the company's growth momentum. While sequential growth rates might show minor easing, the dollar value increases per quarter demonstrate that ServiceNow continues to capitalize on its market opportunities effectively. However, I diverge from Opus's view regarding the P/S ratio discrepancies. Opus points out a potentially outdated valuation metric, suggesting a market misunderstanding or outdated data. My analysis supports the notion that a P/S ratio closer to 7x adequately reflects the company's growth and profit metrics, particularly against the backdrop of a technology sector re-rating.

Opus challenges the narrative that ServiceNow is a "mature earner," and rightly so. With a revenue CAGR of 21.7% and an FCF CAGR of 30.1%, ServiceNow remains in a high-growth phase. I concur with Opus that labeling the company as mature is misleading and overlooks its growth trajectory and expansion potential. Moreover, Opus's contrarian viewpoint on potential threats from Microsoft and AI-driven market dynamics is valid. The risk of Microsoft integrating advanced workflow automation tools into its suite could indeed challenge ServiceNow's pricing power and market share, necessitating vigilance from investors.

A skeptic might argue that the current valuation is precarious, given macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential for increased competition. They would highlight the tight current ratio of 0.95, suggesting limited room for error in working capital management should a market downturn occur. Additionally, the skepticism around AI's immediate revenue contribution is a reasonable concern, questioning whether ServiceNow's growth projections adequately account for these competitive pressures.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.392 · 5bda1781 · 2026-07-08 16:12:24