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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-13): Designation Gem · Cairn score +44 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 57 · Value 34 · Sentiment -53 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $37.41 vs $12.90 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Oddity Tech Ltd.
ODD NASDAQOddity Tech Ltd. operates as a consumer tech company specializing in digital-first brands for the beauty and wellness industries worldwide. It leverages an AI-driven online platform powered by data science, machine learning, and computer vision to analyze consumer needs and deliver personalized beauty, wellness, and technology products. The company offers a diverse portfolio under the IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild brands, encompassing face and complexion products, eye, brow and lip makeup, tools, skincare, haircare, and supplements. Additionally, through ODDITY LABS, a biotechnology center, it employs AI-based molecule discovery technology to develop novel ingredients that enhance performance and outcomes in beauty and wellness solutions. Oddity Tech Ltd. serves consumers directly via its innovative e-commerce platform, focusing on precision-driven product recommendations and development in the competitive personal care market. Incorporated in 2013 and headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel, it plays a key role in transforming how beauty and wellness products are discovered and purchased digitally.
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 13| Print date | EPS est. | EPS actual | Revenue est. | Revenue actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | $-0.05 | $-0.17 -240.0% | — | — |
| Apr 1, 2026 | $0.84 | $0.82 -2.4% | — | — |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $0.14 | $0.20 +42.9% | — | — |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $3.32 | $3.33 +0.3% | — | — |
Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.
Recent SEC Filings
| Filed | Form | Document |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 29, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G | View |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 2, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | View |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 144 | View |
Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.80
Total Equity: $396.50M
Shares: 61,525,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $402.21M
EBITDA: $129.46M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $402.21M
Revenue: $809.84M
Revenue: $809.84M
Revenue: $809.84M
Total Equity: $396.50M
Tax Rate: 18.4%
Equity: $396.50M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $402.21M
Current Liabilities: $114.83M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $396.50M
Shares: 61,525,000
Shares: 61,525,000
CapEx: -$3.94M
Shares: 61,525,000
Stock Price: $12.43
Net Income: $110.75M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 8:34pm (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $222.6M | $324.5M | $508.7M | $647.0M | $809.8M |
| Cost of Revenue | $69.4M | $106.5M | $150.5M | $178.7M | $221.1M |
| Gross Profit | $153.2M | $218.1M | $358.2M | $468.3M | $588.7M |
| Operating Expenses | $133.7M | $190.4M | $283.9M | $352.7M | $469.9M |
| Operating Income | $19.5M | $27.7M | $74.3M | $115.6M | $118.8M |
| Net Income | $13.9M | $21.7M | $58.5M | $101.5M | $110.7M |
| EBITDA | $23.5M | $32.1M | $82.9M | $125.4M | $129.5M |
| EPS | $0.26 | $0.41 | $1.06 | $1.77 | $1.95 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.26 | $0.39 | $1.00 | $1.64 | $1.80 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 8:34pm (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $28.8M | $41.0M | $36.5M | $50.3M | $402.2M |
| Total Current Assets | — | $145.9M | $223.8M | $223.4M | $601.8M |
| Total Assets | — | $216.4M | $404.9M | $438.9M | $1.1B |
| Current Liabilities | — | $90.4M | $109.3M | $124.8M | $114.8M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | — | $105.4M | $121.8M | $156.6M | $741.3M |
| Total Equity | $68.6M | $111.0M | $283.1M | $282.3M | $396.5M |
| Retained Earnings | — | $43.2M | $101.8M | $203.3M | $314.0M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 8:34pm (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $10.2M | $39.0M | $87.5M | $137.8M | $87.6M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.4M | -$2.3M | -$2.1M | -$3.3M | -$3.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.9M | $36.7M | $85.4M | $134.5M | $83.6M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$11.8M | — | -$23.2M | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $-318,000 | $-362,000 | -$4.3M | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | -$147.3M | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$9.2M | $12.2M | -$4.3M | $11.6M | $351.9M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 8:34pm (10d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +45.8% | +56.7% | +27.2% | +25.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +42.3% | +64.3% | +30.7% | +25.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | +41.8% | +168.6% | +55.5% | +2.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +56.1% | +169.4% | +73.4% | +9.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | +36.4% | +158.5% | +51.3% | +3.2% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:22am (14h ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Drucker Mann Lindsay | S-Sale | 11,473.00 | $15.10 | $173,242 |
| 2026-07-31 | Drucker Mann Lindsay | M-OptionExercise | 23,929.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Payorski Lilach | A-Award | 10,889.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Cheresniya Ohad | A-Award | 10,889.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Nir Yehoshua | A-Award | 10,889.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Payorski Lilach | M-OptionExercise | 4,596.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Cheresniya Ohad | M-OptionExercise | 4,596.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Nir Yehoshua | M-OptionExercise | 4,596.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Cheresniya Ohad | M-OptionExercise | 2,956.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-13AI collapses the cost of the content, creative, translation, and customer-service layers that a global online-only beauty operation consumes heavily, and ODDITY LABS' AI-guided discovery of bio-identical actives could convert a software story into patentable physical IP that no model can copy.
Oddity's differentiator is an information-processing layer — shade/skin matching, personalization, funnel optimization — and that layer is precisely what falling model costs hand to every DTC challenger and every legacy brand's agency, compressing the tech premium into an ordinary paid-media arbitrage that Meta and TikTok reprice in the auction.
Whether repeat-cohort economics hold once the matching engine is table stakes: watch marketing spend as a share of revenue against repeat-customer revenue share and operating margin (already 17.9%→14.7% in 2025).
Physical formulation and supply chain, a large installed base of paying repeat buyers with first-party shade/skin/repurchase histories, and any patented molecules out of ODDITY LABS — none of which are reproducible by prompting a model.
AI Lens thesis
The underlying need — buying makeup and skincare without trying it on — persists and is arguably strengthened by better AI matching, and the monetized unit is a physical shipped product, which is durable. But Oddity is not paid for compliance, liability, or workflow ownership; it is paid because it acquires customers online more cheaply than incumbents and converts them without a store. Cheap intelligence attacks that specific advantage from two sides: it lets AI-native entrants stand up equivalent quiz/vision/creative stacks for near zero, and it lets platform ad systems capture the efficiency gains as higher clearing prices. Simultaneously, agentic shopping threatens to move discovery from bought social feeds — where Oddity is strong — to assistants that rank on efficacy, ingredients, and reviews, where a scaled prestige brand or a clinically differentiated ingredient wins. The favorable path runs through ODDITY LABS: AI applied to molecules produces excludable, patentable scarcity; AI applied to funnels produces a commodity.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside Cost of launching and localizing new brands falls sharply with generative content and AI-run support — Oddity's real asset may be a repeatable brand-launch machine (a third and fourth brand at low incremental opex) rather than the matching algorithm itself.
Downside If AI shopping agents become a meaningful discovery channel, Oddity has no retail shelf, no fragrance/prestige halo, and no third-party review depth to be surfaced by — it is structurally more dependent on paid social than any legacy peer, so agentic disintermediation hits it harder than the sector.
Outcome range spread 51 · unresolved
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw numbers before anything else: ODD has compounded revenue from $222.6M (2021) to $809.8M (2025) — a 38% CAGR, not the 26% the momentum module reports (which appears to average in a different window). Net income scaled from $13.9M to $110.7M, and 2025 op margin is 14.7% with a 72.7% gross margin — those are software-adjacent gross margins on a beauty P&L. FCF of $83.6M on a $580M market cap is a 14% FCF yield. Cash of $402M against zero debt means EV is ~$180M, giving EV/EBITDA of ~1.4x on trailing EBITDA and EV/sales of 0.22x. Those numbers are, on their face, absurd for a business growing 25% YoY with 14% net margins. Something is off — either the market knows something the filings don't yet show, or this is a genuine dislocation.
The two things that make me pause are the ROIC of -16.96% (which contradicts the +27.9% ROE and looks like a data error or a one-time capital adjustment — worth flagging as anomalous, not accepted at face value), and the FCF CAGR of -1% against earnings CAGR of 37.6%. That divergence matters: $87.6M operating cash flow on $110.7M net income means a ~$23M working-capital or non-cash drag, and if 2025 FCF is flat versus 2021 despite earnings quadrupling, the "clean earnings" story the bulls lean on is not fully clean. Inventory build for international expansion is the charitable read; deteriorating unit economics masked by growth is the bear read. The insider activity is also not neutral in spirit — I see option exercises and awards but only one small sale (11,473 sh); no meaningful insider buying at $12 either, which is what you'd expect if management viewed this as a 3x layup.
On the prior models: the synthesis verdict of $37-41 fair value is directionally defensible but the magnitude is aggressive. A more disciplined DCF on $83.6M FCF, 15% growth fading to 4% over 10 years, 10% discount rate, gets you to roughly $22-28/share equity value plus $8/share net cash — call it $30-36, not $41. The Thesis Evaluation's -6 score is the most honest read here: the bear case (structural DTC CAC inflation, commoditized AI personalization, IL MAKIAGE brand fatigue post-SPAC hype) is real and the market isn't obviously wrong to demand a discount. The classification module calling this "mature_earner" at 80% confidence is wrong — a business going from $222M to $810M in four years is not mature; the pre-flight "high-growth" tag is correct. The Market Narrative module's "fallen-angel, fragile durability" framing is the most useful lens: this is a show-me stock, and the discount persists until a catalyst forces re-rating.
The contrarian case against my own emerging bullishness: beauty DTC is a graveyard (Honest Co., Rent the Runway, Warby Parker all traded down post-SPAC on the same "AI/data moat" pitches), IL MAKIAGE is a single-brand concentration risk, TikTok/Meta CAC has been rising 20%+ annually and every incremental customer is more expensive than the last, and the 72.7% gross margin will get tested when Spoiled Child and future brands need marketing subsidy to scale. If revenue growth decelerates to 10% and operating margin compresses to 8% (both plausible in a mature DTC), earnings drop to ~$55M and even at 12x P/E you get $11-13/share — i.e., the current price is fair, not cheap. That's the market's implicit bet. The question is whether you believe 2025's 25% YoY growth (already a deceleration from 40%+) stabilizes or keeps sliding.
My read: the synthesis is directionally right but the $41 anchor is too generous. Fair value on conservative assumptions is $22-30, on optimistic assumptions is $35-40. Even the low end is a 75%+ upside from $12.43. The risk/reward is genuinely asymmetric because of the net cash cushion ($8+/share of the price is just cash), the FCF yield, and the still-growing top line. But this needs the Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 print to show growth hasn't cracked below 15% and margins hold. A starter position sized for the possibility that DTC fundamentally breaks is warranted; a table-pounding buy is not, because the FCF/earnings divergence and the ROIC anomaly deserve resolution first.
GPT Reading
Oddity’s raw numbers look far better than a $580M equity value implies. Revenue has gone from $222.6M in 2021 to $809.8M in 2025, a 3.6x increase in four years, while gross profit rose from $153.2M to $588.7M. This is not low-quality growth bought with collapsing unit economics: gross margin in 2025 is 72.7%, operating margin 14.7%, and net margin 13.7%. Even more important, profitability has held while scaling. Operating income increased from $19.5M in 2021 to $118.8M in 2025, and net income from $13.9M to $110.7M. At $12.43, the stock trades on about 7.2x earnings, 0.98x sales, and only 2.6x EV/EBITDA, with $402.2M of cash and no debt. Backing out that cash, the enterprise value is roughly $180M against $83.6M of free cash flow and $118.8M of operating income. For a branded consumer company still growing 25.2% on the latest annual comparison, that multiple is exceptionally low.
The most telling feature here is that the market is acting as if 2024-2025 earnings are near-peak and fragile, yet the annual progression does not show a business straining to keep profits. Revenue grew 27.2% in 2024 and 25.2% in 2025; net income still rose from $58.5M in 2023 to $101.5M in 2024 and $110.7M in 2025. Yes, operating margin only inched from 17.9% in 2024 to 14.7% in 2025—actually down year over year despite revenue growth—but the bigger picture is that margins remain healthy after a period of rapid scale-up. This matters because the current valuation is what you usually pay for a no-growth or structurally impaired consumer asset, not one compounding revenue above 20% with a fortress balance sheet. Even if earnings merely stabilize around $90M-$100M rather than continue rising sharply, the stock still looks mispriced. A 12x multiple on $100M plus excess cash would support something closer to $20-$25 per share, not $12.
The strongest argument against that bullish read is that this may be a classic digitally native beauty business whose accounting earnings flatter the durability of the franchise. Free cash flow of $83.6M in 2025 is solid, but it did not keep pace with net income, and the momentum data suggest FCF CAGR has been roughly flat despite explosive revenue growth. That can indicate working-capital drag or heavier customer acquisition spending hidden in the P&L rather than capitalized. The deceleration in earnings growth is also real: recent earnings growth of 9.1% trails revenue growth of 25.2%, so incremental revenue is becoming less profitable. Operating income was $115.6M in 2024 and only $118.8M in 2025 despite $162.8M of added revenue; that is a yellow flag, not a footnote. If the core engine is paid marketing and product novelty rather than brand endurance, then today’s 72.7% gross margin may not protect shareholders from future opex inflation.
I still weigh those risks as already more than priced in. The balance sheet gives management unusual room to absorb volatility: cash is nearly 70% of market cap, debt is zero, current ratio is 5.24, and equity stands at $396.5M. A business with this financial profile does not need perfect execution to justify a higher stock price. The negative ROIC figure in the data is probably a metric artifact given the cash-heavy structure and otherwise strong ROE of 27.9%, because it clashes with the plainly positive operating and net income trend. Insider activity shown here is not a strong negative either; the recent items are mostly option exercises and awards, with one modest sale. The market may be skeptical that Oddity deserves a “platform” multiple, and I agree it probably does not. But it also does not need one. This can simply be a profitable growth consumer company with some moderation in margins and still be worth materially more than 0.4x EV/revenue.
What would change my mind is straightforward: if the next annual period shows revenue growth slipping below 15% while operating income falls meaningfully from the current $118.8M, then the bear case that the model is hitting CAC saturation becomes much stronger. Likewise, if gross margin drops from 72.7% toward the mid-60s and free cash flow falls materially below $70M despite continued revenue growth, I would stop treating this as a mispricing and start treating it as a value trap. On the other hand, if Oddity can put up another year of 20%+ revenue growth with operating income holding above $110M and cash remaining near current levels, the stock should not stay at 7x earnings for long.
Grok Reading
Oddity’s numbers describe a business the market has already abandoned while the P&L keeps compounding. Revenue scaled from $222.6M in 2021 to $809.8M in 2025, with net income rising from $13.9M to $110.7M and free cash flow of $83.6M on virtually zero capex. Gross margin sits at 72.7%, the balance sheet holds $402.2M cash against zero debt, and enterprise value is roughly $180M—about 0.22x sales and a bit over 2x FCF. At $12.43 the equity is pricing a collapse that the trailing results have not delivered. Even after the growth rate cooled from the mid-50s to a still-solid 25% year-over-year, you are paying roughly 5–7x earnings for a net-margin business still printing mid-teens profitability and a fortress liquidity position that covers most of the market cap.
What actually stands out is the 2024–2025 operating inflection, not the top line. Revenue jumped $163M and gross profit rose $120M, yet operating income barely moved—$115.6M to $118.8M—so incremental dollars were absorbed almost entirely by opex. Net income growth slowed to 9%, FCF CAGR is flat-to-negative, and the ROIC print is nonsensical garbage against an otherwise clean, debt-free ROE of 28%. That pattern is consistent with a DTC beauty engine fighting rising customer acquisition costs and heavier brand spend to defend growth. The rule-based “mature earner” label and the pre-flight “high-growth” label are both half-right: this is a scaled, cash-generative consumer franchise whose growth is decelerating into the mid-20s while the cost structure is still being stress-tested. The valuation models screaming $37–$41 fair value are directionally correct on the cash math, but they underweight how quickly beauty CAC can erase the operating leverage that made 2023–2024 look special.
The strongest case against owning it is exactly that opex absorption. If the 14.7% operating margin and 13.7% net margin are peak-cycle artifacts of a still-maturing paid-acquisition machine, then 7x earnings is not a gift—it is a fair multiple on a business about to re-rate toward low-single-digit growth and mid-single-digit margins. AI personalization and ODDITY LABS sound like moats until every competitor runs the same lookalike and try-on stack; the SPAC-era narrative already died once, and insider activity is noise (option exercises and awards, one modest sale). A smart bear also notes that $84M of FCF against $111M of net income is decent conversion today but has not grown, so the “cash compounder” story is not yet proven through a full CAC cycle. I weigh this seriously—the 2025 operating stall is real—but it does not justify an EV that is a small fraction of one year’s gross profit. You are not paying for the AI story; you are paying a liquidation-ish multiple for a still-growing, high-gross-margin brand that already cleared $100M of net income.
I would flip to neutral or bearish if the next two reported periods show operating income flat or down again while revenue growth slips into the low teens, or if FCF falls below $60M as marketing intensity rises without LTV proof. Re-acceleration of operating leverage back above 16–17% margins with sustained 20%+ revenue growth would push me from undervalued to aggressively long. Until one of those paths resolves, the asymmetry at $12.43 favors the buyer who can tolerate narrative vacuum.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · four lenses
ODD is a rapidly scaling business: revenue compounded from $222.6M (2021) to $809.8M (2025), roughly 3.6x in four years, with gross margin expanding from 68.8% to 72.7% and operating margin from 8.8% to a peak of 17.9% in 2024 before softening to 14.7% in 2025. Net income reached $110.7M and FCF $83.6M in 2025 (down from $134.5M in 2024, worth watching). Cash of $413.4M with zero net debt and self-funded growth means survival risk is effectively nil. Earnings quality is clean: OCF/NI 1.23x, accruals -5.3% of assets, Beneish M -2.02 - the reported numbers appear real. The one blemish is per-share discipline: diluted shares rose from 53.5M to 61.5M (about 3.5%/yr), SBC runs 4.2% of revenue, and buybacks only offset about 160% of SBC in dollars but share count is still up. Insider tape is neutral-to-slightly-negative: recent activity is awards, option exercises, and one small $173K sale - no open-market buying to signal conviction. The 2025 margin compression and FCF step-down (despite continued revenue growth) suggest the operating leverage story is not linear and warrants scrutiny of marketing spend and category expansion economics.
Verify before trusting this (7)
- Cause of 2025 operating margin drop from 17.9% to 14.7% - marketing spend, new brand launches, or category mix?
- Working-capital and capex drivers behind FCF falling from $134.5M to $83.6M despite higher net income
- Customer retention and repeat-purchase economics of Il Makiage and SpoiledChild brands
- Concentration risk: revenue by brand and geography, and channel dependence (own DTC vs. platforms)
- SBC grant structure and expected future dilution pace; any authorized buyback capacity
- Any related-party transactions or founder-family arrangements given controlled-company structure
- R&D pipeline economics for Brand 3/Brand 4 - are they on track and how much cash absorbed?
The e2e composite fair value of $37.41 and signal-adjusted $41.10 (219% upside) are almost certainly overstated - they're pulled up by an anchored-PE of $80.45 that implies the market pays a premium multiple on peak-margin earnings, which is heroic for a post-SPAC beauty name in a live margin-deleverage year. Strip that out and the more defensible inputs are DCF at $26.32 and an EPV floor of $16.56, bracketing a deserved value in the low-$20s. Against a $12.90 price and ~$576M market cap, that's roughly a 40-50% discount with an EPV floor still ~28% above spot - a real margin of safety, not a rounding error. The Quality lens (Strong, 57) supports paying up rather than down, and earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted. What's priced in at $12.90 is essentially the bear: that 2025 operating deleverage is structural, IL MAKIAGE growth mean-reverts, and ODDITY LABS never earns its keep. That's a plausible outcome, but the price already reflects it - you're not paying for the AI/biotech optionality, and even a stabilization scenario gets you back to the EPV floor. The gap is meaningful; the confidence is capped by the fact that the composite FV is clearly inflated and the 2025 margin slip is a live question, not resolved noise.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 2026 guidance on gross and operating margin - is the 2025 slip investment-driven or structural
- IL MAKIAGE vs SpoiledChild segment growth and repeat-purchase cohorts
- ODDITY LABS spend as % of revenue and any commercialization milestones
- Share count trajectory and SBC as % of revenue
- Any one-time costs inflating 2025 opex that normalize in 2026
The broad tape is mildly risk-on with a sleepy VIX near 14.6, which would normally be a tailwind for a beta-2.38 name like ODD. But the narrative sitting on this stock is the wrong kind: a fragile, moderate-intensity 'fallen-angel' story with low cult support, meaning there's no true-believer base to defend it on down days. The bear framing (former SPAC-era AI/beauty hype, unproven tech moat) is the dominant market read, and price action confirms it - repeated 7-11% single-day moves with no news attribution signal a thin, jumpy holder base and momentum traders, not conviction capital. Stock-specifically, the macro backdrop (10y 4.7%, mkt PE 26) is worse than the risk-on score implies for a high-beta, unprofitable-perception growth name; ODD's 2.38 beta means any wobble in the tape gets amplified 2x here. There's no visible analyst upgrade cycle or positive catalyst flow to lean against the bear narrative, and the newsless volatility itself is a tell - when a stock swings double-digits on nothing, sentiment is fragile and sellers are in control on rallies. Net: modest headwind. Not a narrative collapse in progress, but no one is defending this name either, and the macro-sensitivity math works against it.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether the next earnings print reinforces or cracks the AI/biotech-moat bull case (durability test)
- Any sell-side re-engagement - target revisions or new coverage that could reset the narrative
- Whether the newsless swings resolve into a directional trend or continue as choppy noise
- Sector rotation into consumer discretionary / beauty peers that could drag ODD along
- Any 10y move above 4.8% or VIX break above 18 - would hit this 2.38-beta name disproportionately
The underlying need — buying makeup and skincare without trying it on — persists and is arguably strengthened by better AI matching, and the monetized unit is a physical shipped product, which is durable. But Oddity is not paid for compliance, liability, or workflow ownership; it is paid because it acquires customers online more cheaply than incumbents and converts them without a store. Cheap intelligence attacks that specific advantage from two sides: it lets AI-native entrants stand up equivalent quiz/vision/creative stacks for near zero, and it lets platform ad systems capture the efficiency gains as higher clearing prices. Simultaneously, agentic shopping threatens to move discovery from bought social feeds — where Oddity is strong — to assistants that rank on efficacy, ingredients, and reviews, where a scaled prestige brand or a clinically differentiated ingredient wins. The favorable path runs through ODDITY LABS: AI applied to molecules produces excludable, patentable scarcity; AI applied to funnels produces a commodity.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- Competitors launching vision matching tools
- Cost per creative asset disclosed
- Conversion rate trend vs prior years
- Number of AI-native beauty launches
- CAC inflation across DTC beauty
- Growth deceleration toward industry flat
- LABS patents filed or granted
- Proprietary ingredient in shipped SKU