Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Price
$6.67
Market Cap
$300.2M
Employees
380
Beta
0.85
Avg Volume
657,141
CEO
Claude LeBlanc
Business Description
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. functions as a financial services holding company, organizing its operations into two distinct divisions. Its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment delivers specialized program insurance, primarily focusing on coverage for commercial and personal liability exposures. The second division, Insurance Distribution, offers a broad spectrum of services for distributing specialty property and casualty insurance, which includes roles such as managing general agents, underwriters, and insurance brokers, alongside other related distribution and underwriting ventures. Established in 1971, the company, with its corporate headquarters located in New York, New York, rebranded from its former name, Ambac Financial Group, Inc., to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025.
Business History
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 10:08am (just now)$6.67
+0.52 (+8.46%)
Day Range
$6.24 – $6.68
52-Week Range
$3.88 – $10.38
50-Day MA
$5.33
200-Day MA
$6.71
Volume
802,853.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low
$10.00
Consensus
$14.00
High
$18.00
(2 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding
45,013,592.00
Float
42,449,168.00
Free Float
94.3%
High free float
— 94.3% of shares trade freely, ~5.7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider
CALC Derived from statements
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
CALCStock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-1.12
Stock Price: $6.67
EPS (Diluted): -5.93
EPS (Diluted): -5.93
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
APIStock Price / Book Value Per Share
0.51
Stock Price: $6.67
Total Equity: $715.79M
Shares: 47,181,227
Total Equity: $715.79M
Shares: 47,181,227
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
APIEnterprise Value / EBITDA
-11.17
Market Cap: $300.24M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Cash: $68.44M
EBITDA: -$40.42M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Cash: $68.44M
EBITDA: -$40.42M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
APIMarket Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$416.2M
Market Cap: $300.24M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Cash: $68.44M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Cash: $68.44M
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
APIStock Price / Revenue Per Share
1.46
Stock Price: $6.67
Revenue: $251.22M
Shares: 47,181,227
Revenue: $251.22M
Shares: 47,181,227
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
API1.66
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
APIGross Profit / Revenue
81.2%
Gross Profit: $204.03M
Revenue: $251.22M
Revenue: $251.22M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
APIOperating Income / Revenue
-40.2%
Operating Income: -$101.01M
Revenue: $251.22M
Revenue: $251.22M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
APINet Income / Revenue
-95.9%
Net Income: -$240.92M
Revenue: $251.22M
Revenue: $251.22M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
APINet Income / Total Equity
-25.5%
Net Income: -$240.92M
Total Equity: $715.79M
Total Equity: $715.79M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
APINOPAT / Invested Capital
-6.4%
Operating Income: -$101.01M
Tax Rate: 5.2%
Equity: $715.79M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Cash: $68.44M
Tax Rate: 5.2%
Equity: $715.79M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Cash: $68.44M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
APICurrent Assets / Current Liabilities
1.19
Current Assets: $1.08B
Current Liabilities: $909.84M
Current Liabilities: $909.84M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALCTotal Debt / Total Equity
0.16
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $117.56M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Total Equity: $715.79M
Long-Term Debt: $117.56M
Total Debt: $117.56M
Total Equity: $715.79M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALCRevenue / Shares Outstanding
$5.32
Revenue: $251.22M
Shares: 47,181,227
Shares: 47,181,227
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$15.17
Total Equity: $715.79M
Shares: 47,181,227
Shares: 47,181,227
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-1.11
Operating CF: -$52.28M
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 47,181,227
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 47,181,227
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
APILast Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $6.67
Stock Price: $6.67
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$240.92M
Net Income: -$240.92M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Compares OSG against LLM-researched typical ranges for its
industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry
reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
0
Company Classification
— What type of company is this?
1
Industry Landscape
— Where is the industry headed?
2
Company Momentum
— Where is this company trending?
3
Forward Projection
— 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a
DCF Valuation
— Present value of future cash flows
4b
Earnings Power Value
— Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c
Anchored PE
— Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d
Reverse DCF
— What growth is the market pricing in?
4e
Revenue-Based DCF
— For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
4f
Anchored P/S
— Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
4g
Scenario Analysis
— Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
4h
Dividend Discount Model
— For dividend/income stocks only
4i
Book Value Analysis
— For deep value / turnaround stocks only
4j
Insider Activity
— Are insiders buying or selling?
4f
Cash Flow Quality
— How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g
Debt Maturity Risk
— Can it handle its debt?
4h
Macro Environment
— Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i
Sector Intelligence
— How does this company compare within its sector?
4j
Revenue Confidence
— How reliable is the growth projection?
4k
Sensitivity Analysis
— How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l
Sector Demand Cycle
— Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5
AI Investigation
— Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b
Thesis Evaluation
— What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
6
Valuation Synthesis
— Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 7:11am (4d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $247.0M | $53.6M | $124.7M | $235.8M | $251.2M |
| Cost of Revenue | -$72.0M | $29.2M | $76.7M | $137.2M | $47.2M |
| Gross Profit | $319.0M | $24.4M | $48.0M | $98.6M | $204.0M |
| Operating Expenses | $320.0M | $60.1M | $72.2M | $158.5M | $305.0M |
| Operating Income | -$1.0M | -$35.7M | -$24.2M | -$59.8M | -$101.0M |
| Net Income | -$17.0M | $521.2M | $3.6M | -$556.4M | -$240.9M |
| EBITDA | $246.0M | -$31.9M | -$19.0M | -$30.5M | -$40.4M |
| EPS | $-0.61 | $11.48 | $0.18 | $1.42 | $-5.93 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 7:11am (4d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $17.0M | $30.0M | $19.2M | $47.3M | $68.4M |
| Total Current Assets | $4.3B | $2.6B | $0 | $899.0M | $1.1B |
| Total Assets | $12.3B | $8.0B | $8.4B | $8.1B | $2.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $33.0M | $39.0M | $0 | $205.6M | $909.8M |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.4B | $3.7B | $3.5B | $0 | $117.6M |
| Total Liabilities | $11.2B | $6.6B | $7.0B | $6.9B | $1.1B |
| Total Equity | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $856.9M | $715.8M |
| Retained Earnings | $726.0M | $1.2B | $1.2B | $742.2M | $370.4M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 7:11am (4d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$131.0M | $70.4M | $200.0M | $762,000 | -$52.3M |
| Capital Expenditure | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$131.0M | $70.4M | $200.0M | $762,000 | -$52.3M |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | -$18.4M | -$7.0M | -$229.7M | $189.4M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$6.0M | -$14.2M | -$5.0M | -$11.7M | -$29.9M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$12.0M | $10.0M | $213.0M | $28.1M | $22.8M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 9:04am (1h ago)| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$64.8M $64.8M – $64.8M
|
$90.1M $90.1M – $90.1M
|
$82.7M $82.7M – $82.7M
|
$89.5M $89.5M – $89.5M
|
| EBITDA |
$-543,264 $-543,264 – $-543,264
|
$-755,133 $-755,133 – $-755,133
|
$-692,680 $-692,680 – $-692,680
|
$-749,780 $-749,780 – $-749,780
|
| Net Income |
-$31.8M -$35.3M – -$28.2M
|
$22.0M $19.6M – $24.5M
|
$37.4M $30.4M – $44.4M
|
$68.4M $68.4M – $68.4M
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 7:11am (4d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -78.3% | +132.6% | +89.1% | +6.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -92.4% | +97.0% | +105.5% | +106.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | -3,470.6% | +32.2% | -147.1% | -68.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +3,166.2% | -99.3% | -15,420.7% | +56.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | -113.0% | +40.5% | -60.7% | -32.4% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 9:04am (1h ago)
Type codes
PPurchase
SSale
AAward / grant
MOption exercise
FIn-kind (tax)
CConversion
GGift
DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Stein Jeffrey Scott | A-Award | 7,441.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-01 | HAFT IAN DAVID | A-Award | 7,441.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-01 | IGLESIAS LISA G | A-Award | 7,441.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-01 | LAMMTENNANT JOAN M | A-Award | 7,441.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Matus Kristi Ann | A-Award | 7,441.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-01 | PRICE MICHAEL D | A-Award | 7,441.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Ahn Cristina E. | A-Award | 8,067.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Ahn Cristina E. | M-Exempt | 835.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Ahn Cristina E. | M-Exempt | 835.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Ahn Cristina E. | F-InKind | 203.00 | $4.90 | $995 |
| 2026-03-23 | LeBlanc Claude | A-Award | 99,375.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Smith R Sharon | A-Award | 24,375.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Trick David | A-Award | 26,250.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-23 | METZ LAWRENCE F. | A-Award | 28,246.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-03 | LeBlanc Claude | M-Exempt | 24,548.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-03 | LeBlanc Claude | F-InKind | 10,694.00 | $5.60 | $59,886 |
| 2026-03-03 | LeBlanc Claude | M-Exempt | 47,130.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-03 | LeBlanc Claude | M-Exempt | 22,582.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Trick David | M-Exempt | 1,715.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Trick David | F-InKind | 1,715.00 | $5.60 | $9,604 |
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor
(founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond
what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for OSG — it's generated by the pipeline (
market-narrative step).
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30