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PARTIAL Analysis Report
Apr 23, 2026
76 days ago · 100% complete
Partial analysis — no complete end-to-end run on record.

Rapid7, Inc.

RPD NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Boston, MA 02114, United States IPO 2015 rapid7.com Updated Jul 8, 7:21pm
Price
$11.48
Market Cap
$767.2M
Employees
2,613
Beta
1.01
Avg Volume
2,290,987
CEO
Corey E. Thomas

Rapid7, Inc. specializes in delivering cutting-edge cybersecurity solutions. Central to its offerings is a sophisticated, cloud-native platform designed to equip organizations with analytics-driven programs for managing and mitigating cyber risks. This integrated platform comprises several critical components: InsightIDR for comprehensive incident detection and response; InsightCloudSec, which provides extensive cloud security across posture management, workload protection, infrastructure entitlements, infrastructure-as-code, and Kubernetes environments; InsightVM for streamlining vulnerability risk management by facilitating data collection, prioritization, and automated remediation; InsightAppSec, a tool for meticulously analyzing web applications to identify security flaws; and InsightConnect, empowering security professionals with orchestration and automation capabilities. Beyond its core platform, Rapid7's product suite includes DivvyCloud for specialized cloud security posture management, Nexpose and AppSpider as on-premises counterparts for vulnerability risk management and application security testing, respectively, and Metasploit, a renowned penetration testing software. The company also offers professional services to its clientele. Rapid7's solutions are accessible through flexible engagement models, including perpetual software licenses, cloud-based subscriptions, and managed services. The company caters to a broad spectrum of industries, such as technology, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, retail, and government. Its global reach extends across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific, serving customers directly through its sales teams and via an extensive network of channel partners. Founded in 2000, Rapid7 is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Runs with full report Generated: Apr 23, 2026 10:00am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Current data · timestamped when a report runs
$11.48
Change · Jul 8
+0.28 (+2.50%)
Day Range
$10.72 – $11.54
52-Week Range
$4.97 – $25.85
50-Day MA
$7.22
200-Day MA
$11.21
Volume
4,101,541.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $6.00
Consensus $8.13
High $12.00
(66 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 66,830,600.00
Float 58,742,108.00
Free Float 87.9%
High free float — 87.9% of shares trade freely, ~12.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Apr 23, 2026 9:59am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
33.91
Stock Price: $11.48
EPS (Diluted): 0.36
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
6.36
Stock Price: $11.48
Total Equity: $154.73M
Shares: 65,002,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
16.84
Market Cap: $767.22M
Total Debt: $968.37M
Cash: $246.66M
EBITDA: $86.05M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.8B
Market Cap: $767.22M
Total Debt: $968.37M
Cash: $246.66M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
70.3%
Gross Profit: $604.75M
Revenue: $859.79M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
1.3%
Operating Income: $11.57M
Revenue: $859.79M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
2.7%
Net Income: $23.38M
Revenue: $859.79M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
16.4%
Net Income: $23.38M
Total Equity: $154.73M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
0.8%
Operating Income: $11.57M
Tax Rate: 22.5%
Equity: $154.73M
Total Debt: $968.37M
Cash: $246.66M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.20
Current Assets: $688.92M
Current Liabilities: $575.37M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
6.26
Short-Term Debt: $16.18M
Long-Term Debt: $952.19M
Total Debt: $968.37M
Total Equity: $154.73M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$13.23
Revenue: $859.79M
Shares: 65,002,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$2.38
Total Equity: $154.73M
Shares: 65,002,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.22
Operating CF: $152.13M
CapEx: -$7.60M
Shares: 65,002,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $11.48
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $23.38M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Apr 23, 2026 9:59am
Compares RPD against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Apr 23, 2026 6:15:51 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $535.4M $685.1M $777.7M $844.0M $859.8M
Cost of Revenue $168.9M $214.3M $231.7M $251.0M $255.0M
Gross Profit $366.5M $470.7M $546.0M $593.0M $604.8M
Operating Expenses $486.5M $582.3M $626.7M $557.9M $593.2M
Operating Income -$120.1M -$111.6M -$80.7M $35.0M $11.6M
Net Income -$146.3M -$124.7M -$149.3M $25.5M $23.4M
EBITDA -$88.1M -$70.3M -$39.1M $97.3M $86.1M
EPS $-2.65 $-2.13 $-2.46 $0.41 $0.36
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $164.6M $207.3M $213.6M $334.7M $246.7M
Total Current Assets $432.7M $510.3M $634.5M $786.1M $688.9M
Total Assets $1.3B $1.4B $1.5B $1.7B $1.7B
Current Liabilities $468.7M $531.3M $569.8M $630.2M $575.4M
Long-Term Debt $812.1M $815.9M $930.0M $888.4M $952.2M
Total Liabilities $1.4B $1.5B $1.6B $1.6B $1.6B
Total Equity -$126.0M -$120.1M -$118.2M $17.7M $154.7M
Retained Earnings -$736.0M -$860.7M -$1.0B -$988.0M -$964.7M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $53.9M $78.2M $104.3M $171.7M $152.1M
Capital Expenditure -$9.0M -$20.4M -$4.4M -$3.4M -$7.6M
Free Cash Flow $44.9M $57.8M $99.9M $168.2M $144.5M
Acquisitions (net) -$358.4M $-300,000 -$34.8M -$37.3M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$9.0M $42.7M $6.3M $128.5M -$95.4M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $838.7M
$838.1M – $839.4M
$837.2M
$808.1M – $858.1M
$852.0M
$847.3M – $856.6M
$904.0M
$887.4M – $919.5M
EBITDA $316.3M
$316.1M – $316.5M
$315.7M
$304.7M – $323.6M
$321.3M
$319.5M – $323.0M
$340.9M
$334.6M – $346.7M
Net Income $100.8M
$99.2M – $102.4M
$101.0M
$89.9M – $112.0M
$108.4M
$96.8M – $120.0M
$128.1M
$125.0M – $130.9M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 8, 2026 7:21pm (just now)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +28.0% +13.5% +8.5% +1.9%
Gross Profit Growth +28.5% +16.0% +8.6% +2.0%
Operating Income Growth +7.0% +27.7% +143.4% -67.0%
Net Income Growth +14.8% -19.7% +117.1% -8.4%
EBITDA Growth +20.2% +44.3% +348.6% -11.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 MOHAMED WAEL A-Award 2,125,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 MOHAMED WAEL A-Award 841,515.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 JANA Partners Management, LP J-Other 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Galligan Kevin G. A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Brown Marc Evan A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 BRUNER JUDY A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 BURNS MIKE A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Holzman Benjamin A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Nye Benjamin A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Schodorf Thomas E A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Sondhi Reeny A-Award 15,208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 MOHAMED WAEL F-InKind 397.00 $7.10 $2,819
2026-06-09 BERRY MICHAEL J G-Gift 8,420.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 BERRY MICHAEL J G-Gift 8,420.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Kalowski Jeffrey A-Award 57,390.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Kalowski Jeffrey 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Murphy Scott M F-InKind 1,059.00 $6.50 $6,884
2026-05-15 Thomas Corey E. F-InKind 5,357.00 $6.50 $34,821
2026-02-17 Murphy Scott M A-Award 20,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-22 Murphy Scott M S-Sale 827.00 $6.35 $5,251
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for RPD — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-04-23 18:16:25
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Cheap but deservedly so — fair standalone value $7-9 vs current $5.84; the "disconnected from fundamentals" thesis overstates the case given 1.9% growth and share loss. Speculative small position sized for M&A optionality only, not a conviction buy.

Looking at the raw numbers first: Rapid7 is doing $859.8M in 2025 revenue, up from $844.0M — that's 1.9% YoY, effectively stall speed. The quarterly sequence ($205M → $208M → $215M → $216M → $210M → $214M → $218M → $217M) shows revenue has flatlined around $215M for four quarters running. This isn't a growth company anymore; it's a utility. But the cash generation is real and improving: $144.5M FCF on $152.1M OCF with trivial capex, and net income turned positive across all four 2025 quarters ($23.4M full year). Gross margin is 70%, which is respectable but light for enterprise SaaS (best-in-class is 75-80%). Operating margin of 1.35% GAAP is thin — the profitability story is FCF, not GAAP earnings, because of heavy SBC add-backs (visible in the award grants of 1.1M + 275K + 467K shares — material dilution on a 65M share count).

Now the models. The Valuation Synthesis is working from numbers that don't match what I'm seeing. It cites "$878M debt with 1.1x interest coverage," "0.4x P/S," and "$19M insider buying" — but the tile shows P/S of 1.14x (not 0.4x), debt as "—" (not disclosed, so the $878M figure is unsourced in this file), and cash of $246.7M. Market cap is $380M; even if debt really is ~$878M, EV/revenue would be ~1.5x, not the 2.05x shown either. Something is inconsistent. The ev_to_ebitda of 13.5x and P/E of 16.4x TTM do NOT suggest a company priced for liquidation — they suggest a company priced roughly in line with a no-growth mature software business. The Synthesis narrative of "distressed asset pricing" appears to be overdramatic or based on a different data snapshot (possibly when the stock was lower). At $5.84 and 1.1x sales, RPD is cheap but not priced for death.

The contrarian case against the bullish "disconnected from fundamentals" read: revenue growth of 1.9% in a cybersecurity market growing 12-15% means Rapid7 is LOSING share every quarter. That's not a stable melting ice cube — that's accelerating relative decline in a category where scale and platform breadth are winning (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Wiz, SentinelOne all growing 20%+). The 70% gross margin is 5-10 points below peers, suggesting pricing pressure or unfavorable mix. The SBC-heavy compensation (millions of shares being awarded) means FCF overstates owner earnings by probably $60-80M annually — real owner FCF is closer to $70-90M, and on $380M market cap + whatever net debt exists, that's not screamingly cheap if growth is zero-to-negative. The insider purchases (50K, 150K, 41K, 6K shares in late November 2025) are real but modest in dollar terms at these prices — maybe $1-2M total, not the "$19M" the Synthesis cites.

Where the data is thin: total debt and total equity are both blank in the balance sheet section, which is the single most important variable for this thesis. If RPD carries the convertible notes I vaguely recall (~$600M range), interest coverage and refinancing risk matter enormously. The Synthesis treats debt as central but the file doesn't actually show it. The insider list also has unnamed filers ("?") which makes it impossible to distinguish CEO conviction buying from director box-checking. The TTM metrics are from a different window than the annual tile, flagged appropriately.

My read: the prior models are directionally right that RPD is cheap for a profitable SaaS business, but the Synthesis's "disconnected from fundamentals / acquisition at premium likely" framing is too aggressive. This is a no-growth, share-losing, SBC-diluting cybersecurity vendor with a possibly stressed balance sheet, generating real but overstated cash. At 1.1x sales and ~16x earnings, it's priced as a dying-but-not-dead business — which is approximately what the numbers say it is. M&A optionality exists but isn't a layup; strategic acquirers have been buying faster-growing assets (Wiz at $32B by Google, etc.) not decelerating legacy vendors. I dissent from the "compelling risk-adjusted returns" framing and land closer to "cheap but deservedly so, with binary M&A optionality." Fair value in a standalone case is maybe $7-9 (1.3-1.6x sales, ~20x owner FCF); in an acquisition case $10-12. Current $5.84 offers modest upside with real downside if debt refinancing sours.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-04-23 18:16:38
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — cheap but deservedly so. Fair value $7-$9; current $5.84 reflects realistic downside risks. M&A potential is speculative, not guaranteed.

Upon reviewing Rapid7's financial data, what stands out most to me is the stark contrast between its modest revenue growth and its relatively strong free cash flow generation. The revenue growth is indeed anemic at 1.9% YoY for 2025, stagnating around $215M per quarter. However, the company has managed to turn a profit with net income of $23.4M for the year and a free cash flow of $144.5M, which is impressive given its past losses. The gross margin of 70% is decent, though not exceptional for the industry, indicating some pricing or competitive pressures. Despite these pressures, the operating cash flow of $152.1M and minimal capex suggest that Rapid7 is generating substantial cash, which could be a lifeline in a consolidating market.

I disagree with Opus's assertion that the company's valuation metrics imply pricing for liquidation. The P/E ratio of 16.4x and ev_to_ebitda of 13.5x do not suggest a distressed valuation. These metrics indicate a mature software company with no growth rather than a company on the brink of failure. Opus's claim that Rapid7 is priced for death is overly pessimistic. The discrepancy in the P/S ratio (1.14x shown in the data vs. 0.4x claimed by Opus) further undermines the notion that the market has given up entirely on Rapid7's potential.

However, I concur with Opus's assessment that Rapid7 is losing market share, as evidenced by its growth lagging behind the broader cybersecurity market, which is expanding at 12-15%. This relative decline poses a significant challenge, especially given the high competitive pressures from larger platforms like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto. Opus rightly points out that the company's heavy reliance on stock-based compensation dilutes actual owner earnings, making the FCF appear more robust than it truly is.

A careful skeptic might argue that both my view and Opus's overlook the potential for strategic restructuring or divestitures that could unlock value. They might also highlight that the absence of specific debt figures in the data introduces significant uncertainty regarding Rapid7's financial health and the potential impact of refinancing risks. Furthermore, the insider buying, while modest, could indicate insider confidence in the company's strategic direction, suggesting that management may have a plan to address these challenges.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.392 · 5bda1781 · 2026-07-08 16:12:24