Skip to main content
Homepage
Full 18-step deep-dive · ~20–30 min · a member feature.
AGING Analysis Report
Aug 8, 2026
15 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 8, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 11 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for The Southern Company (SO) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -29 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 16 · Value -66 · Sentiment 24 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $72.32 vs $92.70 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

The Southern Company

SO NYSE
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Atlanta, GA 30308, United States southerncompany.com Updated Aug 8, 12:23am
Price
$92.70
Market Cap
$106.6B
Employees
29,502
Beta
0.33
Avg Volume
5,444,355
Last Dividend
$2.98
CEO
Mr. Christopher C. Womack

The Southern Company is a leading U.S. energy holding company that focuses on the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, it operates through vertically integrated electric utilities, a wholesale energy business, and regulated natural gas distribution utilities. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers across multiple states, providing power through a diverse mix of energy sources, including natural gas, nuclear, coal, and renewables such as solar and wind. Southern Company’s regulated utilities manage extensive transmission and distribution networks, ensuring reliable delivery of energy to end users. Its wholesale subsidiary develops and owns generation assets and sells electricity primarily under long-term contracts, supporting grid stability and regional energy needs. The natural gas segment handles distribution, storage, and related services for retail customers. Within the utilities sector, Southern Company plays a significant role in maintaining essential energy infrastructure and supporting economic activity in the regions it serves. Founded in 1945, it remains a central participant in the U.S. regulated utilities market.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 8, 2026 12:29am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$92.70
as of Aug 8, 12:39am (15d ago)
Change · Aug 8
-0.20 (-0.22%)
Day Range
$91.75 – $93.59
52-Week Range
$83.80 – $100.84
50-Day MA
$94.41
200-Day MA
$92.69
Volume
3,739,371.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 15d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,150,362,966.00
Float 1,147,832,167.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 12:39am (15d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:39am (16d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 8, 2026 12:27am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
23.65
Stock Price: $92.70
EPS (Diluted): 3.92
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.65
Stock Price: $92.70
Total Equity: $38.87B
Shares: 1,109,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
7.76
Market Cap: $106.63B
Total Debt: $722.00M
Cash: $1.64B
EBITDA: $13.32B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$103.3B
Market Cap: $106.63B
Total Debt: $722.00M
Cash: $1.64B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $29.55B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
24.7%
Operating Income: $7.29B
Revenue: $29.55B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
14.7%
Net Income: $4.34B
Revenue: $29.55B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
11.2%
Net Income: $4.34B
Total Equity: $38.87B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
16.0%
Operating Income: $7.29B
Tax Rate: 16.6%
Equity: $38.87B
Total Debt: $722.00M
Cash: $1.64B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.65
Current Assets: $10.92B
Current Liabilities: $16.89B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.02
Short-Term Debt: $722.00M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $722.00M
Total Equity: $38.87B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$26.65
Revenue: $29.55B
Shares: 1,109,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$35.05
Total Equity: $38.87B
Shares: 1,109,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-2.65
Operating CF: $9.80B
CapEx: -$12.74B
Shares: 1,109,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.2%
Last Dividend: $2.98
Stock Price: $92.70
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
69.5%
Dividends Paid: -$3.02B
Net Income: $4.34B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 8, 2026 12:27am
Compares SO against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:39am (16d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $23.1B $29.3B $25.3B $26.7B $29.6B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $19.4B $23.9B $19.4B $19.7B $22.3B
Operating Income $3.7B $5.4B $5.8B $7.1B $7.3B
Net Income $4.0B $4.4B $4.3B
EBITDA $7.7B $9.4B $10.8B $12.3B $13.3B
EPS $2.26 $3.28 $3.64 $4.02 $3.94
EPS (Diluted) $2.24 $3.26 $3.62 $3.99 $3.92
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:46am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.8B $1.9B $748.0M $1.1B $1.6B
Total Current Assets $9.0B $10.4B $10.4B $10.7B $10.9B
Total Assets $127.5B $134.9B $139.3B $145.2B $155.7B
Current Liabilities $10.9B $15.7B $13.5B $16.0B $16.9B
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $95.0B $100.4B $104.1B $108.5B $116.9B
Total Equity $32.6B $34.5B $35.2B $36.7B $38.9B
Retained Earnings $10.9B $11.5B $12.5B $13.8B $14.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:39am (16d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $6.2B $6.3B $7.6B $9.8B $9.8B
Capital Expenditure -$7.2B -$7.9B -$9.1B -$9.0B -$12.7B
Free Cash Flow -$1.1B -$1.6B -$1.5B $833.0M -$2.9B
Acquisitions (net) -$345.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$3.8B -$2.2B -$3.3B -$2.2B -$5.5B
Dividends Paid -$2.8B -$2.9B -$3.0B -$3.0B -$3.0B
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:39am (16d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +26.7% -13.8% +5.8% +10.6%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth +45.2% +8.5% +21.3% +3.1%
Net Income Growth +10.7% -1.4%
EBITDA Growth +23.0% +14.6% +14.1% +8.0%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:46am (18d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-18 $0.76
2026-02-17 $0.74
2025-11-17 $0.74
2025-08-18 $0.74
2025-05-19 $0.74
2025-02-18 $0.72
2024-11-18 $0.72
2024-08-19 $0.72
2024-05-17 $0.72
2024-02-16 $0.70
2023-11-17 $0.70
2023-08-18 $0.70
2023-05-12 $0.70
2023-02-17 $0.68
2022-11-18 $0.68
2022-08-12 $0.68
2022-05-13 $0.68
2022-02-18 $0.66
2021-11-12 $0.66
2021-08-13 $0.66
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 4 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for SO — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-08 00:39:12
Verdict Modestly overvalued — fundamentals support $72-82, current $92.70 embeds narrative premium and data-center optionality already; wait for $80 or below to add, trim above $95.

Looking at the raw numbers first: SO is generating $29.5B TTM revenue with $4.34B net income (14.7% margin), but the balance sheet line showing "total debt $722M" against $38.9B equity is almost certainly a data error — a utility of this size with $12.7B annual capex and negative $2.9B FCF does not run on $722M of debt. Consolidated long-term debt at SO is roughly $60B+ in reality; the 0.019 D/E ratio is nonsense and any model that leaned on it (including the "pristine balance sheet" implied by pre-flight) is anchored to a phantom. The current ratio of 0.65 is the more honest tell — this is a heavily levered rate-base compounder, not a fortress. Capex of $12.7B against $9.8B OCF means SO is funding growth with debt and equity issuance, which is normal for regulated utilities but not "cash-generative" in any free-cash sense.

On the trajectory: revenue CAGR of 8.2% flatters a mix that includes a weather-boosted 2025 (rev $29.55B vs $26.72B, +10.6%) and rate case wins in GA/AL. Earnings CAGR of 4.5% is the truer signal — this is a low-single-digit EPS grower structurally, and 2025 NI actually declined ($4.34B vs $4.40B in 2024) despite the revenue jump. Q4 2025 margin of 6% vs Q4 2024 (NI not disclosed) and the lumpy quarterly NI pattern ($416M → $1.36B) reflects seasonal + regulatory timing, not a trend. At 23.6x P/E and 3.48x P/S for a business growing earnings ~4-5%, you're paying a PEG north of 5. Utility comps (DUK, AEP, XEL) trade 18-20x; SO's premium is real, and Vogtle 3&4 being commercially operational is the justification — but that catalyst is now in the rearview mirror, priced in.

The prior models are internally inconsistent in a revealing way. Synthesis says fair value $82 (11% overvalued) but calls it "fair_value" — that's a hedge. Market Forces flags "stretched financials, weak cash conversion, execution risk on $35B nuclear bet" and then labels it "Market Tailwinds." The narrative layer is the most honest: it explicitly says fundamentals anchor at $82 and the extra 12.8% is narrative premium on a consensus story with "minimal upside surprise potential." That last phrase is the whole game — when everyone owns it for the same reason (dividend + IRA + Vogtle), the asymmetry is to the downside on any regulatory disappointment, rate case loss, or 10-year yield spike. The 3.2% dividend yield is 90bps below the 10-year Treasury; you're accepting equity risk for negative real carry versus risk-free.

Contrarian read: what if rate base growth accelerates because Southeast data-center load (Georgia is a top-3 US data center market) drives a step-function in demand and allows above-authorized ROEs? That's the bull case not fully priced, and it's non-trivial — Georgia Power has flagged 6-8GW of new load. But even generous assumptions get you to maybe $95-100 fair value, not a multi-bagger. On the other side, if long rates stay at 4.5%+, utility multiples compress toward 18x, implying $72-75. I side with the synthesis directionally but think the "signal adjustment" from $71.86 to $82.21 is unearned — it looks like the model reverse-engineered a number closer to spot to avoid a hard call. The unadjusted DCF of $72 is closer to right. This is a $75-85 stock being priced at $92.70 because XLU flows and dividend-growth screens don't discriminate on entry price. Not a short (regulated utilities grind), but a poor risk-reward for new capital. Wait for a 10-15% drawdown on a rate-case disappointment or macro rate spike.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-08 00:39:25
Verdict Overvalued at $92.70 — fair value is closer to $78-$83 unless free cash flow inflects sharply and net income breaks sustainably above $4.5B.

Southern is being valued like a best-in-class bond proxy at a time when the underlying economics still look capital-hungry and only modestly growing. The core operating story is solid: annual revenue rose from $25.25B in 2023 to $26.72B in 2024 and $29.55B in 2025, while operating income improved from $5.83B to $7.07B to $7.29B. That says the company is converting rate base growth into earnings, and the quarterly run-rate also looks healthy, with Q1 2026 revenue up to $8.40B from $7.78B a year earlier. But the quality of that growth is not premium enough for 23.6x earnings. Net income was actually slightly down in 2025 at $4.34B versus $4.40B in 2024 despite nearly $2.8B more revenue, and the quarter-to-quarter earnings pattern is lumpy: margins swung from 21.9% in Q3 2025 to 6.0% in Q4 2025, then back to 16.1% in Q1 2026. For a regulated utility, that kind of earnings volatility is acceptable operationally, but it does not justify an equity multiple that assumes unusually smooth, high-visibility compounding.

What stands out most is the disconnect between reported profitability and cash generation after investment. Southern produced $9.80B of operating cash flow in 2025, which is strong, but capex of $12.74B drove free cash flow to negative $2.94B. That matters because investors are not buying a utility only on EPS; they are buying the durability of dividends and the self-funding ability of the rate-base expansion cycle. Here, the dividend yield is only 3.2%, the payout ratio is already about 69%, and free cash flow remains negative. That is a weak combination at $92.70. If the argument is that capital intensity is peaking, I need more proof than one year of better accounting earnings. Right now, shareholders are accepting a below-exciting yield and a premium earnings multiple while still underwriting a business that consumes cash to grow.

The balance sheet data deserve skepticism rather than comfort. A stated debt balance of just $722M against a $106.6B market cap and $38.87B of equity is clearly not economically representative of Southern’s true financing profile; the 0.0186 debt-to-equity metric is almost certainly understating leverage because regulated utilities do not build and operate this asset base with near-net-cash balance sheets. So I would not let the apparently pristine leverage ratios support a bull case. Better to focus on what is more believable in the dataset: low current ratio at 0.65, persistent heavy capex, and a business model that must continually access capital markets or recover investment through rates. At 2.65x book and 3.48x sales, the stock is not being priced as a plain-vanilla utility with financing friction; it is being priced as though the difficult buildout phase is largely behind it and future returns are low-risk. That feels too generous.

The best case against my view is straightforward: Southern has been executing better than the cash flow optics suggest. Revenue is growing at an 8.2% CAGR, earnings at 4.5%, operating margin reached 24.7% in 2025, and Q1 2026 net income of $1.36B was up from $1.33B despite normal utility seasonality. If capex moderates even modestly from $12.74B while OCF stays near $10B, free cash flow can snap toward breakeven quickly. In that scenario, today’s 23.6x P/E may not be crazy for a regulated franchise with constructive Southeast jurisdictions, visible rate-base expansion, and a long dividend history. I weigh that less heavily because the stock price already assumes that benign transition. You are not paying 15x for the chance of cleaner cash conversion; you are paying a premium multiple today for improvements that still need to show up in cash, not just in regulated earnings.

What would change my mind is simple and measurable. If Southern can deliver two things together, I would get less bearish: first, annual free cash flow moving decisively toward breakeven, ideally from negative $2.94B to better than negative $1B without any deterioration in earnings quality; second, continued EPS growth with annual net income clearly above the 2024-2025 plateau, meaning comfortably above $4.5B rather than stuck around $4.3B-$4.4B. If instead capex stays above $12B, the payout ratio remains near 70%, and the stock continues to trade around or above $90 on a low-3% yield, then the valuation is simply too full for the underlying economics.

Grok Reading
Grok (xAI) reads the identical raw briefing blind — one of the Big-3 independent readings — and commits to its own verdict.
No Grok reading yet for SO — it's generated by the pipeline (grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.5; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.5 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.5 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-08 00:59:01
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Solid regulated utility (quality +16) trading ~13-29% above every fair-value cut (value -66) with a real but not urgent data-center tailwind (+24) - it's a wait, not a buy.
The cruxEntry price: the Georgia data-center narrative is legitimate, but it's already in the $92.70 print, so my return depends entirely on whether I pay up here or wait for a pullback into the high $70s.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from SO's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayCritical Runway
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+16
Solid
edge √Σ 116 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 7/10

Southern Company shows the classic regulated-utility profile: revenue scaled from $23.1B (2021) to $29.6B (2025), operating margin expanded from 16% to a peak of 26.4% in 2024 and held at 24.7% in 2025, and net income sits around $4.3-4.4B on ~1.11B diluted shares. OCF/NI at 2.13x and accruals of -3.3% of assets suggest reported earnings are backed by cash generation at the operating line, which is a genuine positive on earnings integrity. Diluted share count crept only ~1%/yr (1.07B to 1.11B), so per-share value is not being eroded by dilution.

Strengths 4
m65
Expanding operating margin
OpM stepped up from 16% (2021) to 24.7% (2025), peaking 26.4% in 2024. Rate-base growth and constructive regulatory outcomes (Vogtle in service) show through.
m55
High earnings integrity
OCF/NI of 2.13x and negative accruals (-3.3% of assets) indicate net income is not being inflated by working-capital games; cash conversion at the operating level is clean.
m50
Dilution discipline
Diluted shares grew ~1%/yr (1.07B to 1.11B over five years). For a utility funding a massive capex program, this is restrained equity issuance.
m60
Regulated moat and revenue durability
Revenue grew from $23.1B to $29.6B with no down year on a cash-earnings basis; regulated monopoly service territories in the Southeast provide highly predictable demand.
Concerns 3
m70
Persistent negative free cash flow
FCF was -$1.07B, -$1.62B, -$1.54B, +$0.83B, -$2.94B across 2021-2025. Heavy capex (rate-base build) means the business self-funds nothing in most years and relies on debt/equity markets.
m55
Altman Z of 0.98 in distress zone
Signals high leverage relative to assets/equity. Common for regulated utilities but still indicates minimal balance-sheet cushion if rate cases or capex overruns turn adverse.
m45
Thin liquidity vs cash burn
$1.64B liquid cash against $2.94B negative FCF/yr - the 2.2-quarter runway metric is misleading for a utility with capital-markets access, but it underscores structural reliance on external funding.
This is a textbook regulated utility - real earnings, real moat, real dividend-paying franchise, but permanently negative FCF because it is always building rate base and financing the gap with debt and modest equity. The Altman Z distress flag and 2.2-quarter cash runway would be alarming for an industrial; for Southern, they reflect the capital structure the regulatory model tolerates. I would not call it fragile, but I refuse to call it Strong either - the business is only as sound as its access to capital markets and the constructive posture of its state regulators. Solid, with the leverage and FCF profile keeping it out of the higher bracket.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average cost of debt; refinancing exposure over next 24 months
  • Vogtle Units 3/4 post-COD cost recovery and any remaining regulatory risk
  • Approved capex plan vs authorized ROE across GA, AL, MS jurisdictions
  • Equity issuance program (ATM) size and expected annual issuance to fund capex
  • Any pending rate cases and outcomes; storm cost deferrals
  • Dividend coverage on a cash basis given negative FCF
Valuation / Mispricing
-66
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 99 · conf 7/10
Price $92.70 vs signal-adjusted FV $82.21 (~13% premium) and composite FV $71.86 (~29% premium) - no margin of safety, modest overvaluation. attractive below $78.00

The e2e work triangulates deserved value in a tight band: EPV floor $65.24, anchored P/E $78.48, composite $71.86, and signal-adjusted $82.21. Even the most generous of those sits ~11% below the $92.70 print, and the midpoint implies roughly 15-20% downside to fair. Nothing about the quality grade (Solid, score 16) argues for paying above the signal-adjusted number - this is a regulated utility earning an authorized ROE, not a compounder with optionality that the DCF can't capture.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality supports a premium to EPV
Solid regulated franchise justifies leaning on the signal-adjusted $82 rather than the $65 EPV floor - but even that number sits below today's price.
Rich / priced-in 4
m62
Price above every FV method
$92.70 exceeds EPV $65.24, anchored P/E $78.48, composite $71.86, and even the signal-adjusted $82.21. The market is paying above the top of the deserved-value range.
m55
Priced for flawless execution
A ~13-29% premium on a regulated utility implies the market has already credited on-time nuclear/grid delivery and constructive rate outcomes - the bull scenario as base case.
m45
Mediocre yield for the risk
~3.2% dividend yield with chronically negative FCF and elevated leverage is not compensating for rate-case and long-rate risk, especially when Treasuries offer a competing yield.
m30
Balance-sheet fragility caps the multiple
Negative FCF, 2.2-quarter cash runway, Altman Z distress flag - normal for the model but a reason NOT to pay a growth-stock premium on the equity.
I can't call this cheap on any reading of the numbers in front of me - every fair-value method lands below $92.70, and the most generous, signal-adjusted figure ($82) still implies ~13% downside. It's a fine business the market fully understands and is happy to pay up for. I'd want it in the high $70s (call it $78, a ~5% discount to signal-adj FV plus a small margin of safety) before it's genuinely interesting; today it's a Rich hold, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Latest rate-case outcomes and authorized ROEs across GA/AL subsidiaries
  • Vogtle post-COD cost recovery and any true-up disallowances
  • Forward capex plan and equity issuance guidance (dilution risk)
  • Management EPS growth guidance vs consensus 5-7% long-term
General Sentiment
+24
Tailwind
tail √Σ 72 · head √Σ 47 · conf 6/10

The pressure on SO is modestly positive but not intense. The tape is risk-on (VIX 14.9, S&P at highs), which is not the environment where defensive utilities usually shine, yet SO carries its own bespoke tailwind: the AI/data-center power-demand narrative has migrated into regulated Southeast utilities, and Georgia Power sitting at the epicenter of that story is a real, durable narrative lift. The Q2 print reinforced it (data center demand +55%, guidance raised toward top end), and analyst tone is 'cautiously optimistic' with target price commentary skewing constructive.

Tailwinds 3
m55
Data-center demand narrative
Georgia's data-center load growth has become a durable story for SO specifically; Q2 showed +55% data-center demand and guidance moved to the top of the range, which is exactly the kind of narrative bond utility investors reward.
m35
Steady-compounder / aristocrat halo
Durable low-cult narrative (regulated returns, dividend aristocrat trajectory, IRA/grid capex) provides a persistent, if unspectacular, bid from income and defensive allocators.
m30
Positive analyst tone
Wall Street framed as cautiously optimistic on long-term prospects post-Q2 beat; no visible downgrade wave, and revisions skew higher on guidance lift.
Headwinds 3
m40
Rates and premium-valuation narrative
10y at 4.69% is a persistent drag on utility multiples, and multiple news pieces explicitly flag SO's premium valuation as leaving little room for error - a recurring bear anchor in the coverage.
m20
Risk-on tape favors higher-beta names
With S&P at highs and VIX 14.9, rotation flows favor cyclicals and growth over 0.33-beta defensives; SO gets left behind on strong up-days, capping relative momentum.
m15
Lackluster trailing performance flagged
Recent coverage explicitly notes 'lackluster share price performance over the past year,' which is a mild sentiment overhang even as the fundamental narrative improves.
Net, I read this as a modest tailwind. SO has something most utilities don't right now - a live, credible growth narrative (Georgia data centers) layered on top of the usual defensive/aristocrat story, and Q2 just validated it. The risk-on tape and 4.7% 10y are real headwinds but land softly on a 0.33-beta name whose buyer base doesn't rotate the way cyclicals' do. The premium-valuation drumbeat in the coverage keeps me from calling it a strong tailwind, but the direction of pressure is clearly up.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether long rates break above 4.75%, which would re-pressure utility multiples
  • Sustainability of data-center demand growth in subsequent quarters
  • Any Vogtle/nuclear or grid capex cost-overrun headlines that would crack the execution story
  • A rotation from cyclicals into defensives (would amplify the tailwind materially)
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -6.7% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 8, 2026, SO was $92.70. We expect it to be $86.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $78.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 8, 2026.

Price when predicted$92.70
Our estimate for Feb 2027$86.50-6.7%
Great value below$78.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for SO. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06