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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for The Southern Company (SO) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-09): Designation Low · Cairn score -29 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 16 · Value -66 · Sentiment 24 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $71.86 vs $92.70 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
The Southern Company is a leading U.S. energy holding company that focuses on the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, it operates through vertically integrated electric utilities, a wholesale energy business, and regulated natural gas distribution utilities. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers across multiple states, providing power through a diverse mix of energy sources, including natural gas, nuclear, coal, and renewables such as solar and wind. Southern Company’s regulated utilities manage extensive transmission and distribution networks, ensuring reliable delivery of energy to end users. Its wholesale subsidiary develops and owns generation assets and sells electricity primarily under long-term contracts, supporting grid stability and regional energy needs. The natural gas segment handles distribution, storage, and related services for retail customers. Within the utilities sector, Southern Company plays a significant role in maintaining essential energy infrastructure and supporting economic activity in the regions it serves. Founded in 1945, it remains a central participant in the U.S. regulated utilities market.
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 9| Print date | EPS est. | EPS actual | Revenue est. | Revenue actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.01 | $1.13 +11.9% | — | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | $1.10 | $1.17 +6.4% | — | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $1.21 | $1.32 +9.1% | — | — |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.06 | $0.15 +150.0% | — | — |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.56 | $0.55 -1.8% | — | — |
Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.
Recent SEC Filings
| Filed | Form | Document |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 8-K | View |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | View |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 8-K | View |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 8-K | View |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 10-Q | View |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.92
Total Equity: $38.87B
Shares: 1,109,000,000
Total Debt: $722.00M
Cash: $1.64B
EBITDA: $13.32B
Total Debt: $722.00M
Cash: $1.64B
Revenue: $29.55B
Revenue: $29.55B
Revenue: $29.55B
Total Equity: $38.87B
Tax Rate: 16.6%
Equity: $38.87B
Total Debt: $722.00M
Cash: $1.64B
Current Liabilities: $16.89B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $722.00M
Total Equity: $38.87B
Shares: 1,109,000,000
Shares: 1,109,000,000
CapEx: -$12.74B
Shares: 1,109,000,000
Stock Price: $92.70
Net Income: $4.34B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:39am (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.1B | $29.3B | $25.3B | $26.7B | $29.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $19.4B | $23.9B | $19.4B | $19.7B | $22.3B |
| Operating Income | $3.7B | $5.4B | $5.8B | $7.1B | $7.3B |
| Net Income | — | — | $4.0B | $4.4B | $4.3B |
| EBITDA | $7.7B | $9.4B | $10.8B | $12.3B | $13.3B |
| EPS | $2.26 | $3.28 | $3.64 | $4.02 | $3.94 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.24 | $3.26 | $3.62 | $3.99 | $3.92 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:46am (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.8B | $1.9B | $748.0M | $1.1B | $1.6B |
| Total Current Assets | $9.0B | $10.4B | $10.4B | $10.7B | $10.9B |
| Total Assets | $127.5B | $134.9B | $139.3B | $145.2B | $155.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $10.9B | $15.7B | $13.5B | $16.0B | $16.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $95.0B | $100.4B | $104.1B | $108.5B | $116.9B |
| Total Equity | $32.6B | $34.5B | $35.2B | $36.7B | $38.9B |
| Retained Earnings | $10.9B | $11.5B | $12.5B | $13.8B | $14.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:39am (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $6.2B | $6.3B | $7.6B | $9.8B | $9.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$7.2B | -$7.9B | -$9.1B | -$9.0B | -$12.7B |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.1B | -$1.6B | -$1.5B | $833.0M | -$2.9B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$345.0M | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$3.8B | -$2.2B | -$3.3B | -$2.2B | -$5.5B |
| Dividends Paid | -$2.8B | -$2.9B | -$3.0B | -$3.0B | -$3.0B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:39am (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +26.7% | -13.8% | +5.8% | +10.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +45.2% | +8.5% | +21.3% | +3.1% |
| Net Income Growth | — | — | +10.7% | -1.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +23.0% | +14.6% | +14.1% | +8.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:46am (3d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-19 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-18 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-18 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-19 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-17 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-16 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-17 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-18 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-12 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-17 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-18 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-12 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-13 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-18 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-12 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-13 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
Insider Trading (Recent)
All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Kim Matthew M. | S-Sale | 100.00 | $94.28 | $9,428 |
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: SO is generating $29.5B TTM revenue with $4.34B net income (14.7% margin), but the balance sheet line showing "total debt $722M" against $38.9B equity is almost certainly a data error — a utility of this size with $12.7B annual capex and negative $2.9B FCF does not run on $722M of debt. Consolidated long-term debt at SO is roughly $60B+ in reality; the 0.019 D/E ratio is nonsense and any model that leaned on it (including the "pristine balance sheet" implied by pre-flight) is anchored to a phantom. The current ratio of 0.65 is the more honest tell — this is a heavily levered rate-base compounder, not a fortress. Capex of $12.7B against $9.8B OCF means SO is funding growth with debt and equity issuance, which is normal for regulated utilities but not "cash-generative" in any free-cash sense.
On the trajectory: revenue CAGR of 8.2% flatters a mix that includes a weather-boosted 2025 (rev $29.55B vs $26.72B, +10.6%) and rate case wins in GA/AL. Earnings CAGR of 4.5% is the truer signal — this is a low-single-digit EPS grower structurally, and 2025 NI actually declined ($4.34B vs $4.40B in 2024) despite the revenue jump. Q4 2025 margin of 6% vs Q4 2024 (NI not disclosed) and the lumpy quarterly NI pattern ($416M → $1.36B) reflects seasonal + regulatory timing, not a trend. At 23.6x P/E and 3.48x P/S for a business growing earnings ~4-5%, you're paying a PEG north of 5. Utility comps (DUK, AEP, XEL) trade 18-20x; SO's premium is real, and Vogtle 3&4 being commercially operational is the justification — but that catalyst is now in the rearview mirror, priced in.
The prior models are internally inconsistent in a revealing way. Synthesis says fair value $82 (11% overvalued) but calls it "fair_value" — that's a hedge. Market Forces flags "stretched financials, weak cash conversion, execution risk on $35B nuclear bet" and then labels it "Market Tailwinds." The narrative layer is the most honest: it explicitly says fundamentals anchor at $82 and the extra 12.8% is narrative premium on a consensus story with "minimal upside surprise potential." That last phrase is the whole game — when everyone owns it for the same reason (dividend + IRA + Vogtle), the asymmetry is to the downside on any regulatory disappointment, rate case loss, or 10-year yield spike. The 3.2% dividend yield is 90bps below the 10-year Treasury; you're accepting equity risk for negative real carry versus risk-free.
Contrarian read: what if rate base growth accelerates because Southeast data-center load (Georgia is a top-3 US data center market) drives a step-function in demand and allows above-authorized ROEs? That's the bull case not fully priced, and it's non-trivial — Georgia Power has flagged 6-8GW of new load. But even generous assumptions get you to maybe $95-100 fair value, not a multi-bagger. On the other side, if long rates stay at 4.5%+, utility multiples compress toward 18x, implying $72-75. I side with the synthesis directionally but think the "signal adjustment" from $71.86 to $82.21 is unearned — it looks like the model reverse-engineered a number closer to spot to avoid a hard call. The unadjusted DCF of $72 is closer to right. This is a $75-85 stock being priced at $92.70 because XLU flows and dividend-growth screens don't discriminate on entry price. Not a short (regulated utilities grind), but a poor risk-reward for new capital. Wait for a 10-15% drawdown on a rate-case disappointment or macro rate spike.
GPT Reading
Southern is being valued like a best-in-class bond proxy at a time when the underlying economics still look capital-hungry and only modestly growing. The core operating story is solid: annual revenue rose from $25.25B in 2023 to $26.72B in 2024 and $29.55B in 2025, while operating income improved from $5.83B to $7.07B to $7.29B. That says the company is converting rate base growth into earnings, and the quarterly run-rate also looks healthy, with Q1 2026 revenue up to $8.40B from $7.78B a year earlier. But the quality of that growth is not premium enough for 23.6x earnings. Net income was actually slightly down in 2025 at $4.34B versus $4.40B in 2024 despite nearly $2.8B more revenue, and the quarter-to-quarter earnings pattern is lumpy: margins swung from 21.9% in Q3 2025 to 6.0% in Q4 2025, then back to 16.1% in Q1 2026. For a regulated utility, that kind of earnings volatility is acceptable operationally, but it does not justify an equity multiple that assumes unusually smooth, high-visibility compounding.
What stands out most is the disconnect between reported profitability and cash generation after investment. Southern produced $9.80B of operating cash flow in 2025, which is strong, but capex of $12.74B drove free cash flow to negative $2.94B. That matters because investors are not buying a utility only on EPS; they are buying the durability of dividends and the self-funding ability of the rate-base expansion cycle. Here, the dividend yield is only 3.2%, the payout ratio is already about 69%, and free cash flow remains negative. That is a weak combination at $92.70. If the argument is that capital intensity is peaking, I need more proof than one year of better accounting earnings. Right now, shareholders are accepting a below-exciting yield and a premium earnings multiple while still underwriting a business that consumes cash to grow.
The balance sheet data deserve skepticism rather than comfort. A stated debt balance of just $722M against a $106.6B market cap and $38.87B of equity is clearly not economically representative of Southern’s true financing profile; the 0.0186 debt-to-equity metric is almost certainly understating leverage because regulated utilities do not build and operate this asset base with near-net-cash balance sheets. So I would not let the apparently pristine leverage ratios support a bull case. Better to focus on what is more believable in the dataset: low current ratio at 0.65, persistent heavy capex, and a business model that must continually access capital markets or recover investment through rates. At 2.65x book and 3.48x sales, the stock is not being priced as a plain-vanilla utility with financing friction; it is being priced as though the difficult buildout phase is largely behind it and future returns are low-risk. That feels too generous.
The best case against my view is straightforward: Southern has been executing better than the cash flow optics suggest. Revenue is growing at an 8.2% CAGR, earnings at 4.5%, operating margin reached 24.7% in 2025, and Q1 2026 net income of $1.36B was up from $1.33B despite normal utility seasonality. If capex moderates even modestly from $12.74B while OCF stays near $10B, free cash flow can snap toward breakeven quickly. In that scenario, today’s 23.6x P/E may not be crazy for a regulated franchise with constructive Southeast jurisdictions, visible rate-base expansion, and a long dividend history. I weigh that less heavily because the stock price already assumes that benign transition. You are not paying 15x for the chance of cleaner cash conversion; you are paying a premium multiple today for improvements that still need to show up in cash, not just in regulated earnings.
What would change my mind is simple and measurable. If Southern can deliver two things together, I would get less bearish: first, annual free cash flow moving decisively toward breakeven, ideally from negative $2.94B to better than negative $1B without any deterioration in earnings quality; second, continued EPS growth with annual net income clearly above the 2024-2025 plateau, meaning comfortably above $4.5B rather than stuck around $4.3B-$4.4B. If instead capex stays above $12B, the payout ratio remains near 70%, and the stock continues to trade around or above $90 on a low-3% yield, then the valuation is simply too full for the underlying economics.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Southern Company shows the classic regulated-utility profile: revenue scaled from $23.1B (2021) to $29.6B (2025), operating margin expanded from 16% to a peak of 26.4% in 2024 and held at 24.7% in 2025, and net income sits around $4.3-4.4B on ~1.11B diluted shares. OCF/NI at 2.13x and accruals of -3.3% of assets suggest reported earnings are backed by cash generation at the operating line, which is a genuine positive on earnings integrity. Diluted share count crept only ~1%/yr (1.07B to 1.11B), so per-share value is not being eroded by dilution.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average cost of debt; refinancing exposure over next 24 months
- Vogtle Units 3/4 post-COD cost recovery and any remaining regulatory risk
- Approved capex plan vs authorized ROE across GA, AL, MS jurisdictions
- Equity issuance program (ATM) size and expected annual issuance to fund capex
- Any pending rate cases and outcomes; storm cost deferrals
- Dividend coverage on a cash basis given negative FCF
The e2e work triangulates deserved value in a tight band: EPV floor $65.24, anchored P/E $78.48, composite $71.86, and signal-adjusted $82.21. Even the most generous of those sits ~11% below the $92.70 print, and the midpoint implies roughly 15-20% downside to fair. Nothing about the quality grade (Solid, score 16) argues for paying above the signal-adjusted number - this is a regulated utility earning an authorized ROE, not a compounder with optionality that the DCF can't capture.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Latest rate-case outcomes and authorized ROEs across GA/AL subsidiaries
- Vogtle post-COD cost recovery and any true-up disallowances
- Forward capex plan and equity issuance guidance (dilution risk)
- Management EPS growth guidance vs consensus 5-7% long-term
The pressure on SO is modestly positive but not intense. The tape is risk-on (VIX 14.9, S&P at highs), which is not the environment where defensive utilities usually shine, yet SO carries its own bespoke tailwind: the AI/data-center power-demand narrative has migrated into regulated Southeast utilities, and Georgia Power sitting at the epicenter of that story is a real, durable narrative lift. The Q2 print reinforced it (data center demand +55%, guidance raised toward top end), and analyst tone is 'cautiously optimistic' with target price commentary skewing constructive.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether long rates break above 4.75%, which would re-pressure utility multiples
- Sustainability of data-center demand growth in subsequent quarters
- Any Vogtle/nuclear or grid capex cost-overrun headlines that would crack the execution story
- A rotation from cyclicals into defensives (would amplify the tailwind materially)
Character & Durability Scorecard
Survivability 7/10
Regulated utilities survive downturns through rate-regulated revenue streams despite concerning Z-score, which is less predictive for capital-intensive regulated infrastructure.
- Altman Z of 0.98 signals distress but utilities typically operate with low Z-scores due to asset-heavy capital structure
- Regulated utility model with stable revenue through multiple economic cycles (2021-2025 revenue sustained $23B-$30B range)
Adaptability 5/10
Incrementally adapting to decarbonization trends but constrained by regulatory process and long capital cycles inherent to utilities.
- Southern Company navigating energy transition with renewables expansion and nuclear investments (Vogtle units)
- Traditional regulated utility model limits speed of strategic pivots compared to unregulated sectors
Moat Trajectory 8/10
Durable regulatory moat remains stable to widening as infrastructure investment expands rate base and barriers to entry are absolute in franchised territories.
- Regulated monopoly franchise in service territories provides structural moat with minimal competitive threat
- Capital deployment into rate base strengthens moat as regulatory framework guarantees returns on prudent investment
Capital Allocation 4/10
Capital-intensive build cycle consumes cash faster than earnings generate it, with mixed historical returns on mega-projects like Vogtle nuclear.
- Persistent negative FCF across most years (2021-2023, 2025) with $-2.94B in 2025 despite $4.34B net income
- Heavy capital deployment into long-cycle infrastructure projects with uncertain returns given Vogtle nuclear cost overruns history
Pricing Power 7/10
Regulatory framework provides reliable pricing power to recover costs and earn allowed returns, though subject to political and regulatory lag.
- Operating margin expanded from 16% (2021) to 26.4% (2024) before modest pullback to 24.7% (2025)
- Rate-regulated model allows cost recovery and approved returns, providing structured pricing power through regulatory process
Management Alignment 6/10
Standard utility governance with moderate alignment, no exceptional insider ownership or alarming misalignment but execution has been uneven on mega-projects.
- Large regulated utility with dispersed ownership and typical utility executive compensation structures
- Track record mixed with Vogtle nuclear project massive cost overruns but successful completion
Demand Durability 8/10
Secular tailwinds from electrification, data center growth, and Southeast economic expansion support durable multi-year demand growth.
- Electricity demand is non-discretionary and growing in Southern footprint driven by data centers, manufacturing reshoring, population growth
- Service territory in Southeast US benefits from favorable demographic and economic trends
Growth Consistency 5/10
Earnings show reasonable progression but revenue and FCF are lumpy, reflecting capital cycle lumpiness and weather/commodity volatility typical of utilities.
- Revenue volatility: $23.11B (2021) to $29.28B (2022) back to $25.25B (2023) up to $29.55B (2025) shows 27% swing
- Net income grew steadily from $3.98B (2023) to $4.40B (2024) to $4.34B (2025) but FCF highly erratic from $-1.54B to $833M to $-2.94B
Optionality / Runway 6/10
Moderate optionality from electrification trends and infrastructure investment but constrained by mature footprint and regulated return structure.
- Growth runway from data center electrification demand, EV charging infrastructure, and renewable energy expansion
- Mature service territories limit geographic expansion but infrastructure replacement cycle provides rate base growth
Concentration / Key-Person Risk 8/10
Geographic and customer diversification across Southeast utilities reduces concentration risk, with no dangerous dependencies on single customers or products.
- Diversified across multiple state jurisdictions (Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi) and customer classes (residential, commercial, industrial)
- Well-established management team across multiple operating subsidiaries reduces key-person risk