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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 2, 2026
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for TIM S.A. (TIMB) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -5 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 60 · Value -59 · Sentiment 6 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $10.54 vs $19.17 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

TIM S.A.

TIMB NYSE
Communication Services · Telecom Services
Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22775-057, Brazil tim.com.br Updated Aug 2, 2:02pm
Price
$19.17
Market Cap
$9.2B
Employees
8,873
Beta
0.11
Avg Volume
473,413
Last Dividend
$0.55
CEO
Mr. Alberto Mario Griselli

TIM S.A. Sponsored ADR represents U.S.-traded depositary receipts tied to the Brazilian telecommunications company TIM S.A., with each receipt corresponding to five underlying common shares. Its primary purpose is to provide international investors dollar-denominated access to TIM’s equity, with dividends and trading conducted in U.S. dollars and administered by a global depositary bank. As a major player in wireless telecommunication services, the company focuses on mobile connectivity, data services, and digital solutions across Brazil, serving consumers and enterprises. The ADR structure broadens the shareholder base by aligning disclosure with international reporting standards and facilitating participation by institutions constrained to U.S. securities. By channeling exposure to Brazil’s communications infrastructure and mobile data growth, TIM S.A. Sponsored ADR functions as a bridge between emerging-market telecom operations and global capital pools, supporting liquidity, transparency, and cross-border portfolio diversification.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 2:11pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$19.17
as of Aug 2, 2:20pm (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
+0.05 (+0.26%)
Day Range
$19.00 – $19.41
52-Week Range
$18.02 – $28.22
50-Day MA
$21.64
200-Day MA
$23.27
Volume
453,100.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 2,388,668,322.00
Float 477,341,923.00
Free Float 20.0%
Low free float — 20.0% of shares trade freely, ~80% held by insiders/institutions
Below average liquidity. Large orders can move the price significantly. Insiders or strategic holders control the majority — watch for lockup expirations or secondary offerings.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:20pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for TIM S.A.

TIM S.A. is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.

This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 6 annual reports, the latest filed 2026-03-30, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
54.67
Stock Price: $19.17
EPS (Diluted): 0.35
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
9.80
Stock Price: $19.17
Total Equity: $4.72B
Shares: 2,414,316,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
3.40
Market Cap: $9.16B
Total Debt: $547.35M
Cash: $711.16M
EBITDA: $2.64B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$9.0B
Market Cap: $9.16B
Total Debt: $547.35M
Cash: $711.16M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
53.9%
Gross Profit: $2.83B
Revenue: $5.24B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
23.8%
Operating Income: $1.25B
Revenue: $5.24B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
16.2%
Net Income: $849.37M
Revenue: $5.24B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
18.0%
Net Income: $849.37M
Total Equity: $4.72B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
25.9%
Operating Income: $1.25B
Tax Rate: 5.4%
Equity: $4.72B
Total Debt: $547.35M
Cash: $711.16M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.89
Current Assets: $2.65B
Current Liabilities: $2.99B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.12
Short-Term Debt: $182.33M
Long-Term Debt: $365.02M
Total Debt: $547.35M
Total Equity: $4.72B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$2.17
Revenue: $5.24B
Shares: 2,414,316,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$1.96
Total Equity: $4.72B
Shares: 2,414,316,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.73
Operating CF: $2.65B
CapEx: -$894.58M
Shares: 2,414,316,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.9%
Last Dividend: $0.55
Stock Price: $19.17
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
124.3%
Dividends Paid: -$1.06B
Net Income: $849.37M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm
Compares TIMB against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.6B $4.2B $4.7B $5.0B $5.2B
Cost of Revenue $1.7B $2.1B $2.3B $2.3B $2.4B
Gross Profit $1.9B $2.1B $2.4B $2.7B $2.8B
Operating Expenses $1.2B $1.5B $1.5B $1.6B $1.6B
Operating Income $739.9M $622.4M $929.2M $1.1B $1.2B
Net Income $582.5M $329.1M $558.9M $621.3M $849.4M
EBITDA $1.9B $2.0B $2.3B $2.5B $2.6B
EPS $0.24 $0.14 $0.23 $0.26 $0.35
EPS (Diluted) $0.24 $0.14 $0.23 $0.26 $0.35
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.0B $502.0M $606.3M $641.9M $711.2M
Total Current Assets $3.0B $2.0B $2.2B $2.5B $2.7B
Total Assets $9.8B $11.1B $10.9B $11.1B $11.2B
Current Liabilities $2.1B $2.6B $2.5B $2.5B $3.0B
Long-Term Debt $651.4M $729.8M $493.2M $529.3M $365.0M
Total Liabilities $4.9B $6.1B $5.8B $5.9B $6.5B
Total Equity $4.9B $5.0B $5.1B $5.2B $4.7B
Retained Earnings $2.2B $2.3B $2.4B $2.5B $2.0B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.0B $1.9B $2.4B $2.4B $2.6B
Capital Expenditure -$1.0B -$931.8M -$887.3M -$896.3M -$894.6M
Free Cash Flow $944.4M $925.5M $1.6B $1.5B $1.8B
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $603.2M $308.9M
Dividends Paid -$205.4M -$236.2M -$428.4M -$535.8M -$1.1B
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash $522.7M -$527.9M $104.2M $35.6M $69.3M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +19.2% +10.7% +6.8% +4.6%
Gross Profit Growth +13.1% +13.4% +9.9% +5.9%
Operating Income Growth -15.9% +49.3% +16.7% +15.2%
Net Income Growth -43.5% +69.8% +11.2% +36.7%
EBITDA Growth +5.7% +18.5% +5.9% +7.1%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-29 $0.16
2026-03-30 $0.16
2025-08-04 $0.12
2025-05-23 $0.11
2025-04-04 $0.18
2025-02-21 $0.07
2024-12-30 $0.22
2024-09-30 $0.11
2024-06-27 $0.12
2024-04-10 $0.54
2024-03-28 $0.08
2023-12-22 $0.28
2023-09-28 $0.17
2023-06-23 $0.12
2023-04-28 $0.10
2023-04-11 $0.24
2022-12-22 $0.18
2022-09-22 $0.10
2022-06-24 $0.10
2022-04-01 $0.08
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TIMB — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 14:19:56
Verdict Dissent from synthesis — TIMB looks undervalued or at worst fairly valued at $19.17; 3.4x EV/EBITDA and 19% FCF yield with net cash suggest fair value $27-32 range, not $10.54; the DCF is broken and dragging the composite down.

Looking at the raw numbers first: TIM has grown revenue from $3.56B (2021) to $5.24B (2025) — a 10.2% USD CAGR, better than the 5.7% cited (which likely uses different endpoints). More striking, operating income nearly doubled from $622M (2022) to $1.25B (2025), and net income went from $329M to $849M over the same window. Operating margin expanded from 14.7% to 23.8%. FCF is $1.75B on a $9.16B market cap — that's an 19% FCF yield. EV/EBITDA of 3.4x is genuinely cheap for a telecom throwing off this kind of cash. Debt is trivial ($547M vs $711M cash — net cash position), ROIC is 25.9%. These are not distressed numbers.

Now the models. The synthesis verdict of $10.54 fair value (-45%) is where I part ways sharply. A DCF that spits out $10.54 on a business generating $1.75B FCF, growing earnings 36.7% YoY, with net cash and 25.9% ROIC, is almost certainly loading catastrophic BRL depreciation and terminal-value haircuts into the assumptions. The 54x P/E headline is misleading — that's the canonical annual figure, but on trailing $849M NI and $9.16B cap, P/E is actually ~10.8x. EV/EBITDA of 3.4x confirms the cheap read. Someone's P/E denominator is stale or in the wrong currency. The pre-flight thesis that the market is "demanding double-digit USD dividend yields" contradicts a 2.85% stated yield — another data inconsistency. The narrative layer calling this a "fallen angel" with an 82% premium to DCF is downstream of the same broken DCF.

The contrarian case against my bullishness: this is Brazil, and BRL has structurally weakened against USD for two decades. USD-reported growth requires either real operational gains or FX tailwinds; if the recent margin expansion reflects Brazilian rate cycle benefits or one-time tower monetization/spectrum accounting, it won't repeat. The payout ratio of 124% is a genuine yellow flag — dividends exceeding earnings means either the accounting NI understates cash earnings (plausible given $2.65B OCF vs $849M NI, likely non-cash D&A on infrastructure) or the dividend is being funded from the balance sheet. Insider activity shows sales in mid-2026 against awards — modestly negative but not damning. The "Sector Leader" tag is right (TIM is #2/3 in Brazilian wireless behind Vivo), but Brazilian telecom is a three-player oligopoly that occasionally reprices competitively. Market Forces flagging "inevitable competitive response" is fair — Vivo and Claro won't cede share indefinitely.

Where I land: the synthesis is wrong, and the models are contradicting each other in ways that should have been reconciled. Rule-based says mature_earner (correct). Momentum shows 23% earnings CAGR and 36.7% recent YoY (that's not mature — that's re-rating). FCF quality is strong, ROIC is 26%, EV/EBITDA is 3.4x. Against that, the DCF says worth $10.54. The DCF is the outlier and it's driving the verdict. On any reasonable telecom comp basis — even applying a 40% EM haircut — 6x EV/EBITDA gets you to ~$32-34, and 8x FCF gets you to ~$29. Fair value is meaningfully above $19.17, not below it. The real risks are BRL translation (genuine, ongoing) and the possibility that 2025's earnings jump reflects a Brazilian macro cyclical peak rather than sustainable run-rate. I'd want to see 2026 half-year data before pounding the table, but at 3.4x EV/EBITDA with net cash and $1.75B FCF, this is not overvalued by 45%. It's undervalued or fairly valued with EM discount already priced in.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 14:20:10
Verdict Slightly undervalued at $19.17 — the raw financials support a value around $22-$24, and the “54x P/E” overvaluation case appears driven by bad ratio mapping rather than economic reality.

What jumps out first is how internally inconsistent the quoted valuation metrics are with the operating and balance-sheet data. A business doing $5.24B of revenue, $1.25B of operating income, $849M of net income, and $1.75B of free cash flow on a $9.16B market cap is not trading on a real 54.7x earnings multiple or 8.8x sales multiple in any economic sense; those figures look contaminated by ADR/share-count or currency-mapping issues. On the raw numbers, the market is paying about 1.7x revenue, roughly 7.3x operating income, about 10.8x net income, and only about 5.2x free cash flow. Enterprise value should actually be below market cap given $711M of cash against $547M of debt, so the 3.4x EV/EBITDA reading is directionally much more believable than the headline P/E and P/S. That matters because the bearish model output leans heavily on ratios that do not reconcile with the financial statements.

The operating story is stronger than a “mature utility, no upside” caricature. Revenue has grown from $3.56B in 2021 to $5.24B in 2025, a 10%+ annualized climb, while operating income rose from $740M to $1.25B and net income from $583M to $849M, with some 2022 noise. Gross margin improved from 53.1% in 2021 to 53.9% in 2025, operating margin from 20.8% to 23.8%, and net margin to 16.2%. That combination—mid-single-digit top-line growth with margin expansion—is exactly what you want from a telecom consolidating spectrum, pricing, and network utilization advantages. More important, cash conversion is exceptional: $2.65B of operating cash flow against $849M of net income is not a small difference, and after nearly $895M of capex the company still produced $1.75B of free cash flow. For a telecom, that is unusually strong self-funding capacity.

The balance sheet also weakens the overvaluation case. Debt of $547M against $4.72B of equity and cash of $711M means net cash, not leverage stress. ROIC of 25.9% and ROE of 18.0% are far too good for a business supposedly trapped in a low-quality, over-earning moment. Yes, the current ratio is sub-1 at 0.89, but that is common in telecoms with predictable billing and supplier finance, and it is hard to call liquidity tight when annual free cash flow is nearly twice total debt. At $19.17, the equity is not obviously cheap in an absolute sense, but if I trust the income statement and cash flow statement more than the broken-looking headline multiples, the shares look closer to fairly valued-to-modestly undervalued than massively overvalued. A business with double-digit earnings growth, net cash, and an implied ~9%-10% FCF yield does not deserve a “fair value $10.54” conclusion unless one assumes a major collapse in normalized cash generation.

The best bear case is that the cash flow is flattered by telecom accounting and working-capital timing, and that investors are over-extrapolating a post-consolidation sweet spot. Revenue growth has slowed to 4.6% recently, so the step-up from 2021 to 2025 may already be largely harvested. Net income growth from $621M to $849M in the latest year was much faster than revenue growth, which raises the risk that margins are peaking. The payout ratio of 124% is a real yellow flag if measured against accounting earnings, because it says management may be stretching distributions beyond steady-state profitability. The ADR also carries Brazil-specific currency and regulatory risk: even if local earnings rise, USD investors can still lose through FX. And if the market is really paying up for dividend optics while insiders are modest net sellers, then a de-rating could happen without any operational collapse. Those are all legitimate concerns; I just think they argue against paying a premium multiple, not for halving the stock from here.

What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 free cash flow is not repeatable. If operating cash flow falls back toward $1.5B while capex stays near $900M, the equity would look much less attractive. Likewise, if revenue growth slips below 3% and operating margin retreats from 23.8% back toward 20%-21%, then the current valuation would start to look full. On the other hand, if the company sustains even $1.2B-$1.4B of annual free cash flow and keeps net cash on the balance sheet, then the stock should hold at least the high teens and arguably support a value in the low-to-mid $20s despite Brazil risk.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 14:20:47
Verdict Undervalued high-FCF Brazilian telecom; $19.17 prices in excessive EM discount vs ~19% FCF yield and 3.4x EV/EBITDA — fair value nearer $28-32

The raw financials describe a business that has quietly compounded its way into a high-quality cash machine while the market still prices it like a distressed EM utility. Revenue has climbed steadily from $3.56B in 2021 to $5.24B in 2025 (5.7% CAGR), but the real story is operating leverage: operating income nearly doubled from $622M to $1.25B over three years as margins expanded from the mid-teens to 23.8% operating and 16.2% net. Net income hit $849M last year, up 37% year-over-year, and free cash flow of $1.75B on a $9.16B market cap produces a roughly 19% FCF yield. The balance sheet is fortress-like—$711M cash against only $547M total debt, net cash positive, debt-to-equity of 0.12—while ROIC of 26% and ROE of 18% confirm capital is being deployed productively. The EV/EBITDA of 3.4x and EV/revenue of 1.7x are the cleanest lenses; the reported 54x P/E and 9.8x P/B are arithmetic artifacts that do not reconcile with market cap over $849M of earnings (~10.8x) or $4.72B of equity (~1.9x) and should be discarded.

That cash-flow reality collides with the valuation synthesis calling the stock 45% overvalued at a $10.54 fair value. A mature telecom generating nearly $2B of annual free cash after only $895M of capex, sitting on net cash, and still growing earnings at a mid-teens-to-20s clip does not belong at 5x FCF. The market thesis correctly flags Brazilian real depreciation risk and political overhang, yet the ADR is already embedding a punitive country discount that leaves little room for the operational trajectory actually delivered. Insider activity is noise—mostly awards with modest subsequent sales—and the 2.85% dividend yield understates the cash-return capacity given FCF coverage well above the elevated 124% earnings payout.

The strongest counter-argument is straightforward and quantitative: revenue growth is only mid-single-digit, the business is a saturated Brazilian wireless operator facing inevitable competitive response, and every formal model in the briefing (DCF, composite fair value, narrative layer) lands at roughly half the current $19.17 price. An 82% premium to the $10.54 intrinsic estimate is extreme if the Real weakens further or if regulators compress returns; the current ratio below 1.0 and payout above earnings also leave less cushion than the net-cash headline implies. Macro headwinds are real, and treating TIMB as a pure Brazil proxy has burned dollar investors before. I weigh this less heavily because the earnings and FCF CAGRs (23% and 6%) plus margin expansion demonstrate the company is converting the competitive vacuum into durable cash rather than fleeting volume, and because EV multiples already price in severe distress that the income statement no longer supports.

A sustained break of BRL that drives USD-denominated FCF below $1.2B, or two consecutive quarters of operating margin compression back toward 18%, would flip the thesis; so would a regulatory or spectrum surprise that forces capex materially above $1.2B while stalling the subscriber economics.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 8.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 6.0
Grok grok-4.5 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 21:13:28
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Hold / small starter, add on Brazil-driven weakness 5/10
Solid Brazilian telco with cash-backed compounding, but the internal valuation model and the AI panel disagree sharply on fair value — I treat $19.17 as fair-ish, not a screaming buy or a short.
The cruxWhether TIMB's ~19% FCF yield and 3.4x EV/EBITDA deserve a re-rating toward developed-telco multiples, or stay capped by BRL/regulatory risk — that single question decides if fair value is $13 or $28.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from TIMB's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+60
Solid
edge √Σ 128 · risk √Σ 59 · conf 7/10

TIM S.A. is a mature earner showing a clean multi-year improvement: revenue grew from $3.56B (2021) to $5.24B (2025), gross margin expanded from 53.2% to 53.9%, and operating margin from 20.8% to 23.8%. Net income nearly tripled from a 2022 trough of $329M to $849M in 2025, and FCF scaled from ~$925M to $1.75B — an FCF margin of ~33%, elite for a telco. OCF/NI of 4.09x and accruals of -15.5% of assets confirm the earnings are cash-backed, not accrual-inflated (Beneish -3.22 supports this).

Strengths 4
m78
FCF scaling with margins
FCF grew from $944M (2021) to $1.75B (2025), ~33% FCF margin, while operating margin expanded 300bps to 23.8%. Strong operating leverage for a mature telco.
m70
High earnings quality
OCF/NI of 4.09x, accruals -15.5% of assets, Beneish M -3.22. Reported earnings are conservatively stated relative to cash generation.
m55
Self-funding with net cash
$711M liquid cash, $164M net cash, positive FCF — no reliance on external capital despite telco capex intensity.
m50
Share count actually stable
Diluted shares flat at ~2.41-2.42B from 2023 through 2025; the '462% CAGR' is a unit/restatement artifact, not real dilution. SBC only 0.1% of revenue.
Concerns 3
m40
Altman Z in grey zone
Z-score of 1.9 reflects leveraged, capex-heavy telco structure. Not distress, but limits balance-sheet flexibility versus a fortress-grade peer.
m35
Country/FX and regulatory exposure
Sole-country Brazilian operator; results in USD are sensitive to BRL swings and to ANATEL spectrum/regulatory cycles. Durability of margin expansion depends on rational three-player market persisting.
m25
No buybacks against sales
Buyback/SBC ratio 0%; insiders showed 4 small sales and 0 buys in trailing 12 months. Not alarming but no active per-share value protection or insider conviction signal.
This looks like a solid, well-run mature telco that has quietly compounded revenue, margins and FCF for five years while keeping the share count stable and earnings genuinely cash-backed. The 462% dilution flag is almost certainly a units artifact and I would not weight it. What keeps this out of the higher tier is structural, not managerial: it is a single-country Brazilian carrier with meaningful leverage (Z at 1.9), FX translation risk, and ongoing spectrum/capex demands. Nothing in the data suggests deterioration or games with the numbers - if anything, the earnings quality is better than average. Solid, low-drama, improving.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Confirm the 2022-to-2023 share count jump (2.4M to 2.42B) is an ADR ratio/restatement rather than a real issuance
  • Debt maturity ladder and BRL vs USD debt mix
  • Capex intensity and 5G rollout obligations going forward
  • Post-Oi mobile integration synergy realization and any remaining earn-out or contingent liabilities
  • Dividend and interest-on-capital policy - payout ratio vs FCF
  • Customer/segment concentration (mobile prepaid vs postpaid vs FTTH)
Valuation / Mispricing
-59
Rich
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 6/10
Price $19.17 vs composite deserved ~$10.54 (DCF $13.12, EPV $5.39) - roughly 45-80% above deserved, a negative margin of safety. attractive below $13.50

The e2e synthesis pins composite and signal-adjusted fair value at $10.54, with a DCF at $13.12 and an EPV floor at $5.39 - implying -45% downside from today's $19.17. Even taking the more generous DCF as the anchor and adding a quality premium for a solid, cash-generative mature telco (quality score 60), deserved value lands in the low-to-mid teens, not near $19. The market appears to be paying a hard-currency ADR premium and pricing in FX stabilization plus continued margin expansion; that is a real bull case but it is already in the price. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted, but high quality on already-priced earnings does not create a gap. Margin of safety here is negative: buyers today are underwriting perfect Brazil macro and BRL stability. The honest read is Rich - not a short thesis, but not a value setup either. I would need a materially lower entry before the risk/reward on a single-country EM telco tilts my way.

Cheap signals 2
m25
High earnings quality, no haircut
Earnings-quality score 2 means deserved value is not marked down for accounting or dilution concerns; the 462% dilution flag reads as a units artifact.
m20
Solid mature telco with steady FCF and dividend
Quality score 60 supports a modest premium to raw model FV - deserved value probably sits in the low-to-mid teens rather than at $10.54 exactly.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Price ~80% above composite FV
$19.17 vs $10.54 composite / signal-adjusted FV implies -45% upside; even the DCF at $13.12 leaves ~31% downside.
m55
EPV floor far below price
EPV of $5.39 - a no-growth capitalized-earnings floor - is barely a quarter of the current quote, showing the price leans heavily on growth and FX assumptions.
m45
ADR premium prices in FX stabilization
Single-country Brazilian carrier trading as if BRL headwinds and regulatory pressure are behind it; that outcome is required, not a bonus.
This is not cheap. At $19.17 the models say -45% and even the friendliest method (DCF $13.12) says the stock is over its skis. It is a solid business - I get why holders like the yield and the operational compounding - but I am being asked to pay a full price for a single-country EM telco whose upside case is largely 'nothing breaks in Brazil.' I would want it in the low-to-mid $13s before I get interested, and I would take another look with real conviction below $12.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Guided FCF and capex trajectory post-Oi integration
  • BRL sensitivity and hedging disclosures in the 20-F
  • Dividend/JCP payout sustainability vs reported FCF
  • Any one-time regulatory or tax items inflating trailing earnings
General Sentiment
+6
Balanced
tail √Σ 52 · head √Σ 46 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly constructive (regime +22, VIX 16) but TIMB's 0.11 beta means the market's mood barely lands on the stock either way. What actually drives this ADR is the fallen-angel narrative: a foundational Brazilian telecom, income-oriented, dollar-denominated - moderate intensity, moderate durability, low cult. That story is neither breaking nor accelerating right now, so there is no dominant force in the tape. Positive momentum (5.7% CAGR, +4.3pp over 3 years, low vol) has quietly rehabilitated the name from its fallen-angel lows without generating euphoria. Yield-and-stability buyers are the marginal holders, and in a neutral tape with the 10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9, an income telecom ADR is a defensible but not exciting perch - some rotation into defensives helps, but stretched market multiples and elevated US rates cap dividend-proxy appeal. Net: a real but ordinary crosswind, leaning very slightly positive from momentum and defensive-bid, offset by the ever-present BRL/regulatory overhang embedded in the bear story.

Tailwinds 3
m38
Quiet momentum rehabilitates the fallen angel
Three years of steady, low-volatility gains have taken the edge off the fallen-angel narrative without triggering hype. That is a persistent, gentle bid from income and EM-value allocators.
m28
Low-beta defensive in a neutral tape
Beta 0.11 and telecom-utility profile mean the +22 regime barely touches it, but any risk-off wobble also barely touches it - the stock is insulated, which is itself a mild positive when the S&P is 1.6% off highs.
m22
Low cult, low crowding
Cult coefficient is low and narrative intensity only moderate - there is no crowded long to unwind, no meme risk, no analyst-tone reversal setup. Sentiment risk is symmetric and small.
Headwinds 2
m35
BRL and regulatory overhang always in the bear file
The bear story - FX depreciation, regulatory pressure, dividend sustained by engineering - is dormant but not dead. It caps enthusiasm and re-emerges on any Brazil headline, keeping a persistent lid on multiple expansion.
m30
High US rates dull the dividend-ADR appeal
10y at 4.68% means a Brazilian telecom yield has to compete with risk-free US income. That structurally softens the marginal dollar buyer's enthusiasm for the ADR carry trade.
This is a low-beta, income-ADR name where the market tape simply does not press hard in either direction. The fallen-angel narrative is moderate and durable but not accelerating, momentum is quietly positive, and there is no crowded trade to unwind. The real sentiment risk is idiosyncratic Brazil - BRL and regulation - not the S&P. Net read: essentially balanced with a whisper of tailwind from defensive-bid and momentum, offset by rate-driven dulling of the dividend appeal. Nothing here is decisive.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • BRL/USD trajectory and any Brazilian central bank pivot that would revive EM-telecom bid
  • Any regulatory or spectrum-cost headline out of Anatel that would reawaken the bear narrative
  • Dividend declaration cadence - a cut would break the entire ADR thesis and flip sentiment hard
  • Rotation flows into EM defensives if US rates roll over
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06