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AGING Analysis Report
Jul 28, 2026
26 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Jul 28, 2026 · Filing on record since: Jul 29, 2026 · 1 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -6 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 77 · Value -73 · Sentiment 17 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Thomson Reuters Corp.

TRI NASDAQ
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Toronto, ON M5H 3H1, Canada thomsonreuters.com Updated Jul 28, 12:02am
Price
$97.76
Market Cap
$42.7B
Employees
27,100
Beta
0.17
Avg Volume
2,103,915
Last Dividend
$3.34
CEO
Mr. Stephen John Hasker B.Com., M.B.A.

Thomson Reuters Corp. is a global content and technology company that provides information, software, and workflow tools to professional users worldwide. The firm focuses on serving legal professionals, corporate clients, tax and accounting professionals, and other knowledge-intensive industries through specialized platforms and data-driven solutions. Its offerings help customers manage regulatory complexity, support legal research and drafting, automate tax and compliance processes, and streamline risk and governance workflows. Thomson Reuters also operates Reuters News, a major provider of real-time news, market data, and multimedia content to financial institutions, media organizations, and corporate clients. In addition, the company maintains a Global Print segment that delivers legal and professional information in traditional formats to customers who require or prefer print-based resources. Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, Thomson Reuters Corp. plays a central role in enabling professionals to make informed decisions, improve productivity, and handle high-stakes information needs across global markets and jurisdictions.

Runs with full report Generated: Jul 28, 2026 12:13am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$97.76
as of Jul 28, 12:22am (26d ago)
Change · Jul 28
+7.61 (+8.44%)
Day Range
$90.90 – $98.09
52-Week Range
$76.28 – $204.46
50-Day MA
$86.16
200-Day MA
$108.64
Volume
2,554,158.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 26d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 436,123,090.00
Float 127,163,763.00
Free Float 29.2%
Low free float — 29.2% of shares trade freely, ~70.8% held by insiders/institutions
Below average liquidity. Large orders can move the price significantly. Insiders or strategic holders control the majority — watch for lockup expirations or secondary offerings.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:24am (26d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:19am (29d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for Thomson Reuters Corp.

This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Jul 28, 2026 12:10am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
28.90
Stock Price: $97.76
EPS (Diluted): 3.38
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.64
Stock Price: $97.76
Total Equity: $11.91B
Shares: 444,086,888
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
15.30
Market Cap: $42.68B
Total Debt: $2.37B
Cash: $371.00M
EBITDA: $2.96B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$45.2B
Market Cap: $42.68B
Total Debt: $2.37B
Cash: $371.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
75.8%
Gross Profit: $5.67B
Revenue: $7.48B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
26.6%
Operating Income: $1.99B
Revenue: $7.48B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
20.1%
Net Income: $1.50B
Revenue: $7.48B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
12.6%
Net Income: $1.50B
Total Equity: $11.91B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
11.2%
Operating Income: $1.99B
Tax Rate: 21.9%
Equity: $11.91B
Total Debt: $2.37B
Cash: $371.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.64
Current Assets: $2.23B
Current Liabilities: $3.47B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.20
Short-Term Debt: $854.00M
Long-Term Debt: $1.52B
Total Debt: $2.37B
Total Equity: $11.91B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$16.83
Revenue: $7.48B
Shares: 444,086,888
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$26.83
Total Equity: $11.91B
Shares: 444,086,888
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.54
Operating CF: $2.65B
CapEx: -$634.00M
Shares: 444,086,888
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.4%
Last Dividend: $3.34
Stock Price: $97.76
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.50B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jul 28, 2026 12:10am
Compares TRI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:19am (29d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $6.3B $6.6B $6.8B $7.3B $7.5B
Cost of Revenue $1.3B $1.3B $1.3B $1.8B $1.8B
Gross Profit $5.0B $5.3B $5.5B $5.5B $5.7B
Operating Expenses $3.8B $3.5B $3.5B $3.6B $3.7B
Operating Income $1.2B $1.8B $2.0B $1.9B $2.0B
Net Income $5.7B $1.3B $2.7B $2.2B $1.5B
EBITDA $2.0B $2.5B $2.8B $2.8B $3.0B
EPS $11.96 $3.00 $5.81 $4.89 $3.39
EPS (Diluted) $11.93 $2.99 $5.80 $4.89 $3.38
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:19am (29d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $708.0M $988.0M $1.2B $1.9B $371.0M
Total Current Assets $2.5B $2.8B $2.9B $3.5B $2.2B
Total Assets $22.1B $21.7B $18.7B $18.4B $17.9B
Current Liabilities $2.6B $4.9B $3.2B $3.4B $3.5B
Long-Term Debt $4.0B $3.3B $3.1B $2.0B $1.5B
Total Liabilities $8.3B $9.8B $7.6B $6.4B $6.0B
Total Equity $13.8B $11.9B $11.1B $12.0B $11.9B
Retained Earnings $9.1B $7.6B $8.7B $9.7B $9.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:19am (29d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.8B $1.9B $2.3B $2.5B $2.7B
Capital Expenditure -$487.0M -$595.0M -$544.0M -$607.0M -$634.0M
Free Cash Flow $1.3B $1.3B $1.8B $1.9B $2.0B
Acquisitions (net) -$18.0M -$191.0M -$1.2B -$622.0M -$843.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 $1.0B $9.0B $3.0B $2.3B
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash -$1.0B $291.0M $229.0M $670.0M -$1.5B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:19am (29d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +4.4% +2.5% +6.8% +3.0%
Gross Profit Growth +5.3% +3.5% -0.6% +3.7%
Operating Income Growth +47.1% +7.4% -2.8% +4.9%
Net Income Growth -76.5% +101.4% -18.0% -32.0%
EBITDA Growth +26.9% +8.5% +0.7% +6.1%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:19am (29d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-20 $0.66
2026-05-04 $1.44
2026-02-17 $0.66
2025-11-18 $0.60
2025-08-19 $0.60
2025-05-15 $0.60
2025-02-20 $0.60
2024-11-21 $0.54
2024-08-15 $0.54
2024-05-15 $0.54
2024-02-20 $0.54
2023-11-15 $0.49
2023-08-16 $0.49
2023-06-23 $5.03
2023-05-17 $0.51
2023-02-22 $0.51
2022-11-16 $0.46
2022-08-17 $0.46
2022-05-25 $0.46
2022-02-23 $0.46
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable errored not yet run 16 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 errored · 1 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TRI — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-07-28 00:24:36
Verdict Mod

Starting with the raw numbers before touching the model outputs: revenue growth is pedestrian — $6.35B (2021) → $7.48B (2025) is a 4.2% CAGR, not the 8.8% implied growth the synthesis flags as "achievable." Net income is worse: $2.70B (2023) → $2.21B (2024) → $1.50B (2025) is a 44% decline in two years, and 2021's $5.69B included the LSEG stake gain so ignore it. Operating income is flat-to-flattish ($1.82B → $1.99B over four years, ~2.3% CAGR). Gross margin actually compressed from 83% (2023) to 75.8% (2025) — that is a meaningful deterioration for a supposed SaaS-transition story where margins should be expanding. Operating margin held at ~26.6% only because SG&A discipline offset gross erosion. FCF of $2.02B on a $42.7B market cap is a 4.7% FCF yield — respectable but not cheap for a business growing revenue at 3% YoY most recently.

The pre-flight "high-growth-saas-transition" tag is the most aggressive claim in the file and I think it's wrong, or at least wildly overstated. A genuine SaaS transition shows accelerating revenue growth and expanding gross margins; TRI shows decelerating revenue (3% most recent YoY vs 4.9% CAGR) and *contracting* gross margins (down ~700bps in two years). The FCF-up-57%-vs-revenue-up-18% framing cherry-picks the denominator — a lot of that FCF lift is working capital normalization and the LSEG monetization tailwind, not organic operating leverage. The synthesis verdict of "Reasonable Premium" and the narrative layer's "steady compounder / anchored" read are closer to reality, but they still let TRI off the hook on the earnings collapse. A 32% YoY earnings decline in a "quality compounder" deserves more than a shrug — either 2023-24 earnings were inflated (LSEG-related, tax items) and 2025's $1.50B is the true baseline (in which case P/E is 28.5x on a 3%-grower, expensive), or 2025 is depressed by AI investment spend that normalizes (in which case forward P/E drops meaningfully). The models don't force this choice; I will.

The contrarian case is straightforward and under-weighted: Westlaw and Practical Law face the most credible AI disruption threat of any legacy information asset — Harvey, vLex/Vincent, Casetext (now Thomson-owned, ironically), and Claude/GPT-4-class models are directly substitutive for junior-associate legal research, which is Westlaw's core use case. TRI's response has been to buy Casetext for $650M and layer CoCounsel on top, but that's a defensive tax on the P&L, not a growth accelerant — which is exactly what the gross margin compression is telling you. The current ratio of 0.64 is fine for a subscription business with deferred revenue, but the $2.37B debt against only $371M cash means limited dry powder for another Casetext-scale acquisition without leverage or equity. At 15.3x EV/EBITDA and 6x EV/revenue for a 3-5% grower with declining GMs, you're paying a quality premium that assumes the moat holds through the AI transition — an assumption the price action ($204 → $98, -52%) suggests the market is no longer willing to underwrite unconditionally.

I dissent from the synthesis "Reasonable Premium" verdict — mildly. At $97.76, TRI is priced at ~21x FCF and 28.9x trailing earnings for a business whose organic revenue growth is 3-4% and whose gross margins are actively compressing. Fair value on a DCF with 4% revenue growth, stable 27% operating margins, and 8% discount rate lands closer to $80-85, not $98. The 3.4% dividend yield provides a floor and the franchise is genuinely durable (agree with the narrative layer's "durable, minimal intensity" read), but there is no margin of safety here and the AI-disruption tail risk is real, not hypothetical. I'd want to see either (a) gross margin stabilization in the next two quarters, or (b) a re-rating to the mid-$80s before committing capital. The market-forces "Neutral" and the narrative layer's anchored read are directionally right; the pre-flight SaaS-transition thesis is aspirational and unsupported by the margin trajectory.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-07-28 00:24:56
Verdict Partial disagreement with Opus — TRI is not a SaaS-growth story and is not cheap at $97.76, but I’d call it roughly fairly valued to modestly rich, with fair value around $90-95 rather than Opus’s $80-85.

What jumps out to me is not a failed business or a hidden growth platform, but a very high-quality professional-information franchise that is already being valued like one despite only modest underlying expansion. Revenue has climbed from $6.35B in 2021 to $7.48B in 2025, but the more important pattern is that operating income has moved far less impressively, from $1.23B to $1.99B over that span and only from $1.82B to $1.99B since 2022. That tells me the core story is resilience, not transformation. The business still throws off excellent cash — $2.65B of operating cash flow and $2.02B of free cash flow in 2025 — and its balance sheet is not stressed with $2.37B of debt against $11.91B of equity. But on a $42.68B market cap, that cash generation buys you a roughly 4.7% FCF yield, which is fine for a defensive compounder and unexciting for a company that is allegedly becoming a software growth story. The headline profitability is also less pristine than the franchise reputation suggests: gross margin at 75.8% is still elite, yet down sharply from 2023 levels, and net income has fallen from $2.70B in 2023 to $1.50B in 2025. My read is simple: TRI is a durable subscription-like information utility with strong economics, but the market is still paying up for durability while the financial trend has become ordinary.

I agree with Opus on the biggest point: the “high-growth-saas-transition” framing is wrong. Opus argues “a genuine SaaS transition shows accelerating revenue growth and expanding gross margins,” and the data back that up here by absence. A company at 5.8x sales and 15.3x EV/EBITDA needs some mix of growth acceleration or visible margin expansion; TRI currently offers neither. The recent revenue growth rate of 3% and five-year revenue CAGR below 5% look like a mature workflow/data vendor, not an emergent cloud platform. I also agree with Opus that the earnings deterioration cannot be waved away. Whether 2023-24 benefited from favorable items or 2025 absorbed unusually heavy investment, the practical takeaway is the same: the market multiple is sitting on top of a lower earnings base than bulls would like. At 28.9x trailing earnings and 20%-plus net margin on the current year, investors are underwriting a return to cleaner growth that has not yet shown up in the reported numbers.

Where I diverge from Opus is on how much to infer from the gross-margin compression and the share-price collapse. Opus treats the drop from $204 to $98 as evidence that “the market is no longer willing to underwrite [the moat] unconditionally,” and links gross-margin pressure directly to AI defense spending. I think that overreads both signals. The stock-price drawdown may say as much about multiple normalization from an excessively rich starting point as it does about a fundamental moat break; a quality data/workflow asset can fall 50% simply by rerating from premium-growth software math to mature-compounder math. And while gross margin falling from around 81%-plus to 75.8% is absolutely a real negative, operating margin at 26.6% and FCF over $2B suggest the economics remain robust enough that this is not yet evidence of structural impairment. I also think Opus is too harsh in calling CoCounsel/Casetext merely “a defensive tax on the P&L.” Defensive, yes. But for a legal-information incumbent, defensive investment is not automatically value-destructive; preserving pricing power and workflow relevance may be exactly what sustains the franchise’s mid-20s operating margin over the next decade. I would not pay a growth multiple for that, but I also would not treat it as proof of decline.

I also partly disagree with Opus’s valuation severity. Their $80-85 fair value implies a cleaner derating than I think the business deserves. TRI has debt-to-equity of just 0.20, ROIC above 11%, ROE above 12%, and a 3.4% dividend yield; those are not numbers that usually belong to a business headed for a deep multiple reset unless revenue turns negative or margins crack much harder. The Delvantic AI Findings concludes a mild dissent from “Reasonable Premium,” and I’m somewhat closer to the original synthesis than Opus is — not because I buy the SaaS-transition story, but because mature, sticky, compliance-oriented data assets often deserve to trade expensive. Still, “deserve to trade expensive” is not the same as “deserve to outperform from here.” At roughly 21x FCF and nearly 29x earnings, TRI looks fairly valued if you assume 4-5% revenue growth, continued buy-in to the moat, and no major AI dislocation; it looks overvalued if you expect 3% growth and permanent margin pressure. My base case is closer to the former than Opus’s more bearish posture, but only slightly.

A careful skeptic of both views would say we are both still making too much of noisy accounting lines without segment detail. They would point out that 2021-2025 net income is distorted by one-offs, that cash flow is the more relevant lens and remains strong, and that neither the AI doom case nor the AI rejuvenation case is yet proven in the reported numbers. They would also argue that a current ratio of 0.64 is meaningless in isolation for this type of business, and that the real question is retention, pricing, and product adoption inside Legal Professionals and Tax & Accounting — data we do not have here. That skeptic is right on one thing: the key unresolved issue is not whether TRI is “software” or “legacy,” but whether AI lets Thomson Reuters deepen workflow entrenchment or compresses the value of its premium content layer.

Grok Reading
Grok (xAI) reads the identical raw briefing blind — one of the Big-3 independent readings — and commits to its own verdict.
No Grok reading yet for TRI — it's generated by the pipeline (grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a report is run on this ticker.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-07-28 00:34:10
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality name - wait for a dip 8/10
Genuine specialty-information compounder (quality +77) trading ~15% above where I want to plant a flag (value -73) - hold if I own it, wait for low-$80s to buy.
The cruxEntry price, not thesis: at 21x FCF the bull case is fully embedded, so the only variable that matters is whether the tape hands me a pullback into the low $80s.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from TRI's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+77
Strong
edge √Σ 136 · risk √Σ 59 · conf 8/10

The business shows the fingerprints of a durable specialty-information franchise: gross margins in the mid-70s to low-80s (75.3-80.9%), operating margins that stepped up from 19.4% in 2021 to a steady 26-28% range through 2022-2025, and revenue compounding from $6.35B to $7.48B. Free cash flow has expanded every single year (1.29B to 1.32B to 1.80B to 1.85B to 2.02B), a rare monotonic climb that speaks to real pricing power and low incremental capital needs. Earnings quality checks are clean: accruals only 1.8% of assets, OCF/NI 1.1x, Beneish M -2.7, Altman Z 5.67. Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly at the share-count level, with diluted shares shrinking from 476.9M to 444.1M (-1.8% CAGR), so per-share economics are being concentrated rather than eroded. Balance sheet is a mild constraint rather than a cushion: only $465M liquid cash against $1.91B net debt and $854M short-term debt, but $2.02B annual FCF trivially covers that refinancing exposure. The one wrinkle worth flagging is the gross-margin step-down from 80.9% (2023) to ~75% (2024-2025) and the net-income volatility (5.69B, 1.34B, 2.70B, 2.21B, 1.50B), which suggests mix shift, acquisition accounting, or one-time items are moving the reported bottom line even as cash flow marches higher.

Strengths 4
m80
Monotonic FCF expansion
FCF climbed every year from $1.29B (2021) to $2.02B (2025), a ~57% cumulative rise on ~18% revenue growth, indicating real operating leverage and low capex intensity.
m70
Elite gross and operating margins
Gross margin 75-81% and operating margin steady at 26-29% since 2022 signal a moaty, subscription-like information business with pricing power.
m65
Clean earnings quality
Accruals 1.8% of assets, OCF/NI 1.1x, Beneish M -2.7, Altman Z 5.67 - no mechanical red flags; reported earnings are backed by cash.
m55
Per-share value concentration
Diluted shares fell from 476.9M to 444.1M (-1.8% CAGR); a net buyer of its own stock rather than a diluter.
Concerns 3
m40
Gross margin step-down 2024-2025
GM slid from 80.9% (2023) to 75.3% (2024) and 75.8% (2025) - a ~5pt compression worth diagnosing (mix, acquisition costs, or reclassification).
m35
Volatile reported net income
NI swung 5.69B / 1.34B / 2.70B / 2.21B / 1.50B while FCF rose steadily, implying large non-cash or one-time items (LSEG stake gains/losses, tax, impairments) distorting the bottom line.
m25
Modest net-debt posture with near-term maturity
$1.91B net debt and $854M short-term debt vs only $465M liquid cash; comfortably serviced by $2B FCF but leaves no true cushion.
This looks like a genuinely high-quality franchise - the kind of specialty-information compounder that quietly widens its moat. Cash generation is the tell: FCF rises every year without fail, margins are structurally high, earnings quality is clean, and share count is shrinking. It is not a fortress balance sheet (net debt exists, short-term maturities exceed cash) but $2B of annual FCF makes that a non-issue. The gross-margin dip and jumpy GAAP net income keep me from calling it Fortress - I want to understand those before fully endorsing - but on the evidence provided this is a Strong business, well-run, with protected per-share economics.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Source of 2024-2025 gross-margin compression (segment mix, acquisitions, or accounting reclass)
  • Composition of net income volatility - specifically LSEG stake mark-to-market and any impairment or tax items
  • Organic vs acquired revenue growth, and recurring/subscription revenue share
  • Refinancing plan for the $854M short-term debt and weighted maturity profile
  • Insider transaction pattern and Woodbridge (controlling holder) behavior
  • Segment-level growth in Legal Professionals, Corporates, and Tax & Accounting
Valuation / Mispricing
-73
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 98 · conf 7/10
Price $97.76 vs deserved ~$84-$88 - roughly 10-15% above fair, no margin of safety, priced for the bull narrative. attractive below $82.00

TRI trades at $97.76 for a ~$42.7B market cap on a business generating roughly $2B of annual FCF - that is a ~21x FCF yield on a mid-single-digit grower. The e2e synthesis lands at 'Reasonable Premium,' which is analyst-speak for 'not cheap.' Earnings quality is clean so I do not need to haircut the deserved value, but I also cannot stretch a multiple on a legacy information business facing genuine AI-era unbundling risk in legal research.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Quality justifies some premium
Score-77 franchise with clean earnings and shrinking share count deserves to trade above market multiple - so this is 'modestly rich,' not 'overvalued.'
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
e2e synthesis says 'Reasonable Premium'
The composite valuation itself flags the stock as trading at a premium to reasonable fair value - not a screaming short, but explicitly not cheap.
m60
~21x FCF on a mid-single-digit grower
$42.7B cap on ~$2B FCF is a rich multiple for a business the bear plausibly argues is low-growth and facing AI disruption in its core legal franchise.
m45
Bull case already in the price
Sticky workflows, AI monetization, buyback compounding - all the good stuff is baked in. There is no scenario where you get paid for something the consensus hasn't already priced.
m30
Disruption risk uncompensated
AI-native legal research entrants (Harvey, etc.) and unbundling threats are real, and a 21x FCF multiple offers zero cushion if growth slips a point or two.
Fully valued to modestly rich. This is a great business the market clearly understands, and paying 21x FCF for mid-single-digit growth with real AI disruption risk is not where I want to plant a flag. I would want it in the low $80s before I get interested - roughly a 15% pullback - which would put the FCF yield closer to 5.5% and give me actual cushion against the bear case. Today's price is fine to hold, not to buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Organic revenue growth trend in Legal Professionals segment - is AI helping or cannibalizing
  • CoCounsel/AI product revenue disclosure and attach rates
  • FCF conversion and buyback pace in latest quarter
  • Any change to medium-term margin guidance
General Sentiment
+17
Balanced
tail √Σ 56 · head √Σ 39 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly risk-off (VIX 18.7, S&P off its high, 10y at 4.69%), but with a beta of 0.17 TRI is one of the least tape-sensitive names in the market. Specialty business services with sticky legal/tax/compliance workflows behaves like a defensive utility when the VIX creeps up, so the market-wide headwind lands as a light brush, not a blow. That neutralizes most of the macro pressure other equities are absorbing right now. The active narrative is a low-intensity, high-durability 'steady compounder' story, closely anchored to fundamentals with no euphoric premium and no story break to unwind. There is a background AI-disruption whisper hanging over legal research (the perennial bear script), but it is not currently a hot narrative pushing the stock lower, and no news catalyst has amplified it. The Zacks-style earnings-beat setup piece is a mild positive drumbeat into the print. Net: no strong force in either direction. Analyst tone appears constructive around an anticipated beat, momentum is modestly positive, and there is no sector rotation actively punishing the name. The most likely sentiment kicker is earnings itself, either confirming the compounder story (mild tailwind) or reigniting the AI-disruption bear thread (mild headwind).

Tailwinds 3
m40
Low-beta defensive shield
Beta 0.17 in a risk-off tape means the macro headwind that is de-rating higher-beta names essentially bypasses TRI; sentiment-wise this is a place investors hide, not sell.
m30
Durable compounder narrative, no cracks
The story is low-intensity but durable and tightly aligned with fundamentals - nothing to unwind, no euphoria to deflate, which keeps sentiment stable while flashier names get repriced.
m25
Pre-earnings beat drumbeat
Coverage flagging TRI's strong surprise history sets a mildly positive expectations tone into the print, a small near-term tailwind.
Headwinds 3
m30
Latent AI-disruption bear thread
The bear script that AI-native legal research tools erode the moat is dormant but always one headline away from reactivating; it caps upside sentiment and could flare on any competitor announcement.
m20
Higher-rate, high-market-PE backdrop
10y at 4.69% and market PE 26.6 slightly pressures long-duration recurring-revenue compounders like TRI, though the low beta and defensive character absorb most of it.
m15
Adjacent software wobble (INTU headline)
News flow highlighting cracks in another sticky-software incumbent (Intuit down 60%) can nudge sentiment on the whole recurring-revenue cohort, a minor secondhand drag.
Net pressure on TRI is close to neutral with a faint positive lean. The risk-off tape simply does not bite a 0.17-beta defensive information monopoly the way it bites high-beta story stocks, and the narrative here is a quiet, durable compounder tale with nothing overheated to unwind. The only real sentiment risk is the sleeping AI-disruption bear thread, but it is not currently active. Into an earnings print with a good beat history, I lean slight tailwind, but not enough to call it more than Balanced.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Earnings print reaction - does a beat reinforce the compounder tape or does guidance reignite AI-disruption bear talk
  • Any competitor launch (Harvey, LexisNexis AI, etc.) that could flip the dormant AI narrative into an active headwind
  • Sector rotation - if risk-off deepens, does defensive info-services catch a bid (tailwind) or get sold with the tape
  • Analyst target revisions post-print for tone shift
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +5.9% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Jul 28, 2026, TRI was $97.76. We expect it to be $103.50 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $82.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 28, 2026.

Price when predicted$97.76
Our estimate for Jan 2027$103.50+5.9%
Great value below$82.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06