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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
UPST NASDAQ
Financial Services · Credit Services
San Mateo, CA 94403, United States
upstart.com
Price
$29.93
Market Cap
$2.8B
Employees
1,405
Beta
2.17
Avg Volume
4,183,049
CEO
Mr. Paul Gu
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides credit services through a proprietary, cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform. Its core function is to use machine learning models to help banks and other lending partners assess consumer creditworthiness beyond traditional credit scores, aiming to better align loan pricing with individual risk profiles. Upstart’s platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects these borrowers to a network of AI-enabled bank partners, with revenue primarily generated from fees paid by these institutions for loan referrals, platform usage, and servicing. The company operates across three main segments: Personal Lending, covering unsecured personal and small-dollar loans; Auto Lending, including auto refinance, auto retail, and auto-secured personal loans; and Other, which encompasses home equity lines of credit and additional lending products. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, Upstart Holdings, Inc. plays a specialized role in the credit services and financial services sectors by providing technology-driven underwriting and loan origination infrastructure to financial institutions.
Runs with full report
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 13 No upcoming print on the calendar yet — companies typically confirm a few weeks ahead. Last print was Aug 4, 2026.
EPS surprise history — vs analyst consensus · 5 prints of vendor history
+8.7%
Feb '26
-38.8%
Mar '26
+5.1%
Apr '26
-30.2%
May '26
+3.6%
Aug '26
| Print date | EPS est. | EPS actual | Revenue est. | Revenue actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.55 | $0.57 +3.6% | — | — |
| May 5, 2026 | $0.43 | $0.30 -30.2% | — | — |
| Apr 18, 2026 | $0.39 | $0.41 +5.1% | — | — |
| Mar 9, 2026 | $-1.03 | $-1.43 -38.8% | — | — |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $0.46 | $0.50 +8.7% | — | — |
Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.
Recent SEC Filings
| Filed | Form | Document |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | 10-Q/A | View |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 10-Q | View |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | View |
| Jul 13, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | View |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 4 | View |
Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.
Price Overview
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026 1:36pm (just now)
Current data · timestamped when a report runs
$29.93
Change · Aug 13
+0.83 (+2.85%)
Day Range
$29.14 – $30.00
52-Week Range
$23.97 – $76.95
50-Day MA
$30.91
200-Day MA
$35.12
Volume
52,846.00
Share Structure
Outstanding
97,306,813.00
Float
79,275,100.00
Free Float
81.5%
High free float
— 81.5% of shares trade freely, ~18.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement
HEX SEC filing
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEXStock Price / EPS (Diluted)
66.51
Stock Price: $29.93
EPS (Diluted): 0.45
EPS (Diluted): 0.45
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEXStock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.46
Stock Price: $29.93
Total Equity: $798.82M
Shares: 119,113,333
Total Equity: $798.82M
Shares: 119,113,333
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEXEnterprise Value / EBITDA
—
Market Cap: $2.83B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $652.39M
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $652.39M
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEXMarket Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$2.2B
Market Cap: $2.83B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $652.39M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $652.39M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEXGross Profit / Revenue
—
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $1.02B
Revenue: $1.02B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEXOperating Income / Revenue
—
Operating Income: N/A
Revenue: $1.02B
Revenue: $1.02B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEXNet Income / Revenue
5.2%
Net Income: $53.60M
Revenue: $1.02B
Revenue: $1.02B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEXNet Income / Total Equity
6.7%
Net Income: $53.60M
Total Equity: $798.82M
Total Equity: $798.82M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEXNOPAT / Invested Capital
—
Operating Income: N/A
Tax Rate: 1.3%
Equity: $798.82M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $652.39M
Tax Rate: 1.3%
Equity: $798.82M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $652.39M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEXCurrent Assets / Current Liabilities
—
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEXTotal Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $798.82M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $798.82M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEXRevenue / Shares Outstanding
$8.60
Revenue: $1.02B
Shares: 119,113,333
Shares: 119,113,333
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$6.71
Total Equity: $798.82M
Shares: 119,113,333
Shares: 119,113,333
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-1.24
Operating CF: -$147.73M
CapEx: -$347,000
Shares: 119,113,333
CapEx: -$347,000
Shares: 119,113,333
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TDLast Annual Dividend / Stock Price
—
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $29.93
Stock Price: $29.93
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEXDividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $53.60M
Net Income: $53.60M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 10:06am (6d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $846.6M | $837.8M | $508.1M | $628.8M | $1.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $572.5M | $719.1M | $489.9M | $555.7M | $743.6M |
| Operating Income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income | $135.4M | -$108.7M | -$240.1M | -$128.6M | $53.6M |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $1.73 | $-1.31 | $-2.87 | $-1.44 | $0.56 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.43 | $-1.31 | $-2.87 | $-1.44 | $0.45 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 10:06am (6d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | — | $368.4M | $788.4M | $652.4M |
| Total Current Assets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Assets | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.4B | $3.0B |
| Current Liabilities | — | — | — | — | — |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.2B |
| Total Equity | $807.1M | $672.4M | $635.3M | $633.2M | $798.8M |
| Retained Earnings | $66.2M | -$42.4M | -$282.6M | -$411.2M | -$357.6M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 10:06am (6d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $168.4M | -$674.7M | -$160.5M | $186.3M | -$147.7M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$8.4M | -$8.8M | -$1.5M | $-837,000 | $-347,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | $159.9M | -$683.5M | -$162.0M | $185.5M | -$148.1M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$16.8M | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $647.1M | $287.9M | $51.0M | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | -$177.9M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $879.9M | -$658.8M | -$64.7M | $508.5M | $80.7M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 10:06am (6d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -1.0% | -39.3% | +23.8% | +62.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income Growth | -180.2% | -121.0% | +46.5% | +141.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Industry Benchmarks
Compares UPST against LLM-researched typical ranges for its
industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry
reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
0
Company Classification
— What type of company is this?
1
Industry Landscape
— Where is the industry headed?
2
Company Momentum
— Where is this company trending?
3
Forward Projection
— 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a
DCF Valuation
— Present value of future cash flows
4b
Earnings Power Value
— Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c
Anchored PE
— Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d
Reverse DCF
— What growth is the market pricing in?
4e
Revenue-Based DCF
— For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
4f
Anchored P/S
— Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
4g
Scenario Analysis
— Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
4h
Dividend Discount Model
— For dividend/income stocks only
4i
Book Value Analysis
— For deep value / turnaround stocks only
4j
Insider Activity
— Are insiders buying or selling?
4f
Cash Flow Quality
— How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g
Debt Maturity Risk
— Can it handle its debt?
4h
Macro Environment
— Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i
Sector Intelligence
— How does this company compare within its sector?
4j
Revenue Confidence
— How reliable is the growth projection?
4k
Sensitivity Analysis
— How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l
Sector Demand Cycle
— Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5
AI Investigation
— Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b
Thesis Evaluation
— What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
6
Valuation Synthesis
— Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor
(founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond
what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for UPST — it's generated by the pipeline (
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
No AI findings yet for UPST — they're generated by the
pipeline (
ai-findings step) when a report is run on this ticker.
GPT Reading
No GPT reading yet for UPST — it's generated by the
pipeline (
gpt-critique step) after the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Grok Reading
No Grok reading yet for UPST — it's generated by the
pipeline (
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · four lenses
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · twelvedata
v1.1.530 · 761561a2 · 2026-08-12 19:06:35