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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +9 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 59 · Value -32 · Sentiment 69 (timing only, not weighted)
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
XOM NYSEExxonMobil Holdings Corporation is a multinational energy and petrochemical company focused on the exploration, production, and development of crude oil and natural gas resources across the United States, Canada, and numerous international markets. The company operates integrated upstream, downstream, and chemical businesses, supplying fuels, lubricants, and a broad range of petrochemical products used in transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods. ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation also develops and applies advanced technologies to enhance resource recovery, improve refining and chemical processes, and support more efficient energy production. Its customer base includes industrial users, power generators, transportation companies, and commercial and residential end users who rely on stable supplies of energy and feedstocks. Headquartered in Spring, Texas, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation plays a significant role in global oil and natural gas markets, as well as in the production of high-value chemical products that underpin numerous industrial and consumer applications today. Founded in the United States, it remains one of the largest publicly traded energy and chemical enterprises worldwide.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.70
Total Equity: $266.63B
Shares: 4,305,074,627
Total Debt: $9.30B
Cash: $10.68B
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $9.30B
Cash: $10.68B
Revenue: $332.24B
Revenue: $332.24B
Revenue: $332.24B
Total Equity: $266.63B
Tax Rate: 27.9%
Equity: $266.63B
Total Debt: $9.30B
Cash: $10.68B
Current Liabilities: $72.33B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $9.30B
Total Equity: $266.63B
Shares: 4,305,074,627
Shares: 4,305,074,627
CapEx: -$28.36B
Shares: 4,305,074,627
Stock Price: $156.75
Net Income: $28.84B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:42am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $285.6B | $413.7B | $344.6B | $349.6B | $332.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $254.4B | $335.9B | $291.8B | $300.7B | $291.0B |
| Operating Income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income | $23.0B | $55.7B | $36.0B | $33.7B | $28.8B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $5.39 | $13.26 | $8.89 | $7.84 | $6.70 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.39 | $13.26 | $8.89 | $7.84 | $6.70 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:01am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.8B | $29.6B | $31.5B | $23.0B | $10.7B |
| Total Current Assets | $59.2B | $97.6B | $96.6B | $92.0B | $83.4B |
| Total Assets | $338.9B | $369.1B | $376.3B | $453.5B | $449.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $56.6B | $69.0B | $65.3B | $70.3B | $72.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $163.2B | $166.6B | $163.8B | $182.9B | $182.4B |
| Total Equity | $175.7B | $202.5B | $212.5B | $270.6B | $266.6B |
| Retained Earnings | $392.1B | $432.9B | $453.9B | $470.9B | $482.5B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:42am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $48.1B | $76.8B | $55.4B | $55.0B | $52.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$12.1B | -$18.4B | -$21.9B | -$24.3B | -$28.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | $36.1B | $58.4B | $33.5B | $30.7B | $23.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $38.0M | $632.0M | $924.0M | -$251.0M | $1.2B |
| Dividends Paid | -$14.9B | -$14.9B | -$14.9B | -$16.7B | -$17.2B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$155.0M | -$15.2B | -$17.7B | -$19.6B | -$20.3B |
| Net Change in Cash | $2.4B | $22.9B | $1.9B | -$8.4B | -$12.5B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:42am (24d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +44.8% | -16.7% | +1.5% | -5.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income Growth | +141.9% | -35.4% | -6.5% | -14.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 23, 2026 10:23pm (30d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-12 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-13 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-15 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-15 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-13 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-14 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-11 | $0.88 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-12 | $0.88 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-09 | $0.88 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-10 | $0.88 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-12 | $0.87 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:18Even the bull case prices 40% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 71%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($156.75) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +1% | 10.1% | $94.04 | -40% |
| Base — stabilizes | +1% | 8.7% | $81.91 | -48% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +0% | 7.4% | $70.02 | -55% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -12% | 7.6% | $45.57 | -71% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory here is uglier than the "mature earner" label suggests. Quarterly revenue has flatlined around $82-85B for five straight quarters, but net income has decompressed hard: Q2 2024 delivered $9.24B on $93B rev (9.9% margin), and the most recent print (Q1 2026) shows $4.18B on $85B (4.9% margin) — margins nearly halved in six quarters while revenue slid only ~8%. That's operating leverage working in reverse, which is exactly what you'd expect as crude and crack spreads normalize from 2022-2024 highs. Annual NI has fallen from $55.7B (2022) → $36.0B → $33.7B → $28.8B — a 48% peak-to-trough compression. FCF CAGR of -16% on $28.4B of capex against $52B OCF means the buyback/dividend engine is running on a thinner cushion than the fortress-balance-sheet narrative implies. Debt/equity of 0.035 is genuine, but $23.6B FCF vs. ~$16-17B dividend obligation (60% payout on $28.8B NI) leaves maybe $7B for buybacks — not the $17-20B pace of 2023-2024.
On valuation, the models are being too polite. A 23.4x P/E on a business whose earnings have declined for three consecutive years, in a sector that historically trades 10-15x, is not "high conviction required" — it's a math problem. If you normalize to a mid-cycle $32B NI (halfway between 2022 peak and 2025 trough), you get ~$7.85 EPS and a 20x multiple, which is still rich for cyclicals. The Pre-Flight note that this multiple "implies sustained $75+ oil" is correct but understated: WTI has been sub-$75 for much of 2025, and Q1 2026 margins confirm the earnings didn't hold up. The synthesis verdict of "not priced for perfection, but requires conviction" reads as a hedge — the market IS pricing in perfection on the transition-delay thesis, or the multiple wouldn't be 23x during a clear earnings downcycle.
The models contradict each other in a revealing way. Momentum shows revenue_cagr -1.8%, earnings_cagr -10.5%, FCF_cagr -16%, and recent earnings YoY -14.4%. Yet Revenue Confidence is tagged "accelerating" and Sector Intelligence says "Above Sector Benchmarks." Those are incompatible unless "accelerating" refers to sequential Q4→Q1 rev (+3.4%), which is noise inside a flat band. Market Narrative calls it "anchored" and "steady-compounder" — but a steady compounder doesn't post -14% earnings YoY and see FCF cut in half over three years. The narrative layer is mis-labeling: XOM is a cyclical trading like a compounder, which is precisely when cyclicals are most dangerous. Peter Lynch's rule applies — low P/E on a cyclical at peak earnings is the buy; high P/E at trough earnings is often the buy too, but only if you believe the cycle turns. Here, we have a high-ish P/E on declining-but-not-yet-trough earnings, which is the worst quadrant.
The contrarian case for owning it anyway: (1) $10.7B cash, $9.3B debt — net cash on a $650B market cap, which is genuinely rare for a supermajor and gives management dry powder for opportunistic M&A into a distressed shale patch; (2) Pioneer integration and Guyana ramp are real cash-flow adders not yet fully in the run-rate; (3) if the market truly believed peak demand was near, XOM wouldn't trade at 2.0x sales — the 23x P/E is partially a scarcity premium as capital exits the sector. Fair enough. But none of that justifies paying $157 today when a re-rating to 17-18x normalized $32B NI implies $125-135. The insider activity and macro headwind flags in the secondary signals reinforce caution. I dissent from the "High Conviction Required" hedge — the honest verdict is "modestly overvalued on cyclical math, hold if you own for the 2.6% yield and net-cash balance sheet, but don't add here." A pullback to the $130s creates a materially better risk/reward with the same dividend and the same fortress features.
GPT Reading
What jumps out to me is not simply “declining earnings,” but how little top-line elasticity remains relative to the valuation investors are paying. Exxon is doing roughly $332B of annual revenue now versus $350B in 2024 and $345B in 2023, so this is not a business that has fallen apart operationally; it is a business whose earnings power is being squeezed back toward a more ordinary level. Net income has gone from $55.7B in 2022 to $36.0B, then $33.7B, then $28.8B in 2025, and the latest quarter annualizes far below even that if taken at face value: Q1 2026 produced just $4.18B, down from $7.71B a year earlier, with margin collapsing from 9.3% to 4.9%. That matters because the stock at $156.75 and a $649.7B market cap is being priced less like a cyclical cash machine and more like a resilient compounder. Yet the underlying evidence says earnings are still highly cycle-sensitive even if the balance sheet is unusually strong.
The balance sheet is the real differentiator here, and I think it is the only reason the stock deserves any premium at all. With $10.68B of cash against just $9.30B of debt and equity of $266.6B, Exxon has effectively eliminated balance-sheet risk. Operating cash flow of $51.97B against capex of $28.36B still leaves $23.61B of free cash flow, so this is not a stressed business. But investors should not confuse “safe” with “cheap.” A 2.6% dividend yield and roughly 60% payout ratio consume a large chunk of current earnings, and once you set that against falling annual profit and a quarterly run rate now below historical averages, the company’s buyback flexibility is plainly lower than in the 2022-2024 windfall window. My read is that XOM today is a fortress financially, mediocre fundamentally, and expensive statistically.
Opus argues that “the raw trajectory here is uglier than the ‘mature earner’ label suggests.” I agree. The sequential revenue stabilization around the low-to-mid $80Bs is a sideshow; the important point is that net income fell from $9.24B in Q2 2024 to $4.18B in Q1 2026 while revenue only fell from $93.06B to $85.14B. That is exactly what a normalized commodity margin reset looks like. I also agree with Opus that the model outputs are internally inconsistent: tagging revenue as “accelerating” when recent annual revenue is down 5% and quarterly sales have just oscillated between $81.5B and $85.3B is not analytical, it is semantic gamesmanship. And I agree that “steady-compounder” is the wrong narrative frame. A company with earnings CAGR of -10.5% and FCF CAGR of -16% is not compounding; it is harvesting a cycle.
Where I diverge from Opus is on the degree of overvaluation and on the normalized earnings base. Opus pegs fair value at $130-140 using “normalized $30-32B NI at 17-18x.” I think that is still somewhat generous on the multiple and somewhat pessimistic on the earnings base. Given the annual history—$23.0B in 2021, $55.7B in 2022, then $36.0B, $33.7B, $28.8B—the cleanest mid-cycle anchor is closer to the high-$20Bs to low-$30Bs, not because the business is broken, but because current margins are telling you the supernormal period is over. On that earnings base, a supermajor with negative revenue CAGR, negative earnings CAGR, and a 2.6% dividend yield should not command 17-18x unless one believes there is durable structural scarcity value in listed oil. I don’t. I’d be closer to 15-16x normalized earnings, which points more to the low-$120s to low-$130s than the upper-$130s. So I agree with Opus’s direction but think they are slightly too forgiving because they still let Exxon keep too much of the “quality premium.”
A careful skeptic of both my view and Opus’s would say we are both over-fixated on backward-looking P/E during a troughing period and underweighting asset quality. They would point to Guyana, Pioneer synergies, and Exxon’s ability to sustain $50B-plus of operating cash flow with almost no net debt, and argue that a 23x trailing P/E is a noisy artifact of temporary margin compression rather than true overvaluation. That skeptic would also note that 2.0x sales and 2.5x book are not absurd for a capital-disciplined supermajor with a net-cash balance sheet. Fair pushback. But to justify $156.75, you need a clear path back toward $35B-plus of steady earnings or a reason to believe integrated oil should trade permanently above historical cyclical multiples. The provided numbers do not prove either.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
XOM prints massive cash across the cycle: FCF ran $36B (2021), peaked at $58.4B (2022), then $33.4B, $30.7B, $23.6B (2025). Net income tracked similarly, from $23B to a $55.7B peak back down to $28.8B. OCF/NI of 1.69x and accruals at -5.6% of assets indicate clean, cash-backed earnings, and Altman Z of 4.41 confirms a safe balance sheet. Net cash is only $1.4B on a $650B cap, but with $23.6B of FCF and $10.7B of liquid cash the business is comfortably self-funding.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Post-Pioneer share issuance and any subsequent buyback pace to confirm the flat share-count trend holds
- Segment mix: how much of FCF is upstream vs downstream/chemicals and Permian breakeven costs
- Capex trajectory and reserve replacement ratio to gauge durability of future production
- Dividend and buyback commitments vs FCF at mid-cycle prices
- Debt maturity ladder and any off-balance-sheet obligations behind the $1.4B net cash figure
The e2e synthesis flags 'High Conviction Required,' which is code for the fair-value methods disagreeing - typical for a commodity-cycle name where DCF is hostage to oil-deck assumptions and multiples are hostage to where you are in the cycle. At $650B market cap and ~$156.75 per share, XOM trades at a mid-cycle multiple for a business whose earnings and FCF are sliding as crude normalizes. That is not a bargain, but it is not egregious either.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward capex guidance and Pioneer synergy realization in next 10-K/10-Q
- Segment-level upstream breakeven and downstream margin normalization
- Buyback pace vs FCF as commodity deck softens
- Any one-time gains/impairments distorting trailing earnings
The macro tape is stressed (VIX 20.7, S&P -3.9% off highs, hawkish Fed) but XOM's 0.16 beta means the risk-off pressure barely grazes this name. More importantly, the dominant news vector is bullish for oil: Iran attacked US forces, Trump is threatening retaliation, crude spiked ~7%, and XOM already jumped 3.3% intraday on the tape. That is a direct, stock-specific tailwind that overwhelms the generic equity headwind. On top of the geopolitical bid, the political-narrative overlay is favorable: XOM is publicly framed as Trump's top energy pick, the stock is up ~27% YTD, and Q2 earnings land July 31 with sell-side priming a 'profit gusher.' The underlying narrative archetype is a low-intensity, durable steady-compounder with no cult risk and no story to break-there is nothing fragile to unwind. Momentum is neutral, not euphoric, so this is not a crowded trade at risk of a sentiment air-pocket. Net: a defensive, dividend-anchored major sitting in the middle of a geopolitical oil bid, with a friendly political narrative and a near-term earnings catalyst, in a tape where its low beta insulates it. Pressure leans clearly positive.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether Iran-US tensions escalate or de-escalate in the next 48 hours - the entire crude bid hinges on it
- July 31 earnings print and guidance tone versus the 'gusher' setup
- Whether crude holds above pre-shock levels once headlines cool
- Any Fed follow-through that steepens the rate headwind for dividend proxies
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Jul 30, 2026, XOM was $156.75. We expect it to be $140.00 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $132.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 30, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.