Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$78.82
6-month call
Bear -8.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$72.50
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.0% to $72.50
Predicted High
$80.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$72.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:02 pm
Bear
UBER trends lower to
$72.50
(-8.0% from $78.82)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisRisk-on regime and robotaxi/platform narrative keep UBER bid near-term, but stretched valuation versus $40-55 fair value range creates gravitational drag over the 6-month horizon. Expect modest continuation then a slow fade as momentum cools and value anchors reassert.
Invalidated ifBreak above $85 on sustained volume or collapse below $70 before m2 would invalidate the drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $78.82 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $78.82 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $72.29–$85.35 typical range · internal point $79.80 | — | ±8.3% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape carry price modestly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $71.67 on Sep 11, 2026 = -9.1% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $69.36–$88.28 typical range · internal point $80.50 | — | ±12.0% | 6/10 | Narrative intact, no catalyst, mild grind up |
| What actually happened: closed $68.16 on Sep 28, 2026 = -13.5% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 15.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $79.00 | — | +0.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and profit-taking cool momentum |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $77.00 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $75.50 | — | -4.2% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $74.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Regime shift risk and regulatory overhang weigh |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $72.50 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull toward mid-50s continues gradually |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $73.82 (-6.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $78.82 |
| Composite fair value | $39.74 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $44.32 |
| DCF fair value | $53.66 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | -57 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +43 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 42.4% 3m 41.6% 6m 37.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.28 3m 0.66 5m 0.75 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 29d behind | UBER-20260730-213231-0240 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260828-235028-b5f4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260828-235028-b5f4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260828-235028-b5f4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260828-235028-b5f4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | UBER-20260828-233002-ba8c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | UBER-20260828-233002-ba8c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.