Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$67.72
6-month call
Neutral -4.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$64.50
Great value below
$50.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.8% to $64.50
Predicted High
$66.40
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$61.50
at 4 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:06 pm
Neutral
BLDR trends range-bound to
$64.50
(-4.8% from $67.72)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisBLDR is a rate-sensitive cyclical caught between a bearish housing-cycle sentiment overlay and a mildly supportive risk-on tape, with valuation lenses split (DCF constructive, composite fair value below spot). Expect near-term drift lower as momentum and negative value signal dominate, then partial stabilization near composite fair value as the horizon lengthens.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $75 on housing/rate-cut catalyst, or a break below $55 signaling capitulation to bear scenario.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $67.72 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $67.72 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $60.10–$75.34 typical range · internal point $66.40 | — | ±11.3% | 6/10 | Negative momentum and sentiment continue near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $60.37 on Sep 11, 2026 = -10.9% vs the call (predicted -2.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $56.67–$78.77 typical range · internal point $65.10 | — | ±16.3% | 6/10 | Value lens pull toward composite fair value below spot |
| What actually happened: closed $58.01 on Sep 28, 2026 = -14.3% vs the call (predicted -3.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $63.50 | — | -6.2% | 5/10 | Housing cycle narrative weighs, high beta amplifies |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $62.00 | — | -8.4% | 5/10 | Approaches composite fair value near 60 anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $61.50 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | Stabilization near fair value; year-end tax positioning |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $63.00 | — | -7.0% | 4/10 | DCF gravity and risk-on regime provide modest lift |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $64.50 | — | -4.8% | 3/10 | Slow mean reversion toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $68.99 (+1.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $67.72 |
| Composite fair value | $60.13 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $59.86 |
| DCF fair value | $89.33 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $11.47 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $50.00 |
| Value net score | -62 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -1 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 56.0% 3m 56.5% 6m 53.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.30 3m 1.74 5m 1.88 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -35.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 25d behind | BLDR-20260803-170728-7bd8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLDR-20260829-014731-c459 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLDR-20260829-014731-c459 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLDR-20260829-014731-c459 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLDR-20260829-014731-c459 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | BLDR-20260829-013002-34f3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | BLDR-20260829-013002-34f3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.