Made on
Aug 31, 2026
Price at call
$142.28
6-month call
Bull +15.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$164.50
Great value below
$125.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+15.6% to $164.50
Predicted High
$164.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$141.50
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 31, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
LDOS trends higher to
$164.50
(+15.6% from $142.28)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLDOS trades at a meaningful discount to composite fair value with quality intact and no near-term catalyst risk. In a risk-on tape a low-beta defense compounder grinds higher slowly rather than sprinting; expect gradual mean-reversion toward the mid-160s over six months, with early drift muted by weak sentiment and momentum.
Invalidated ifA break below $126 on adverse guidance, contract loss, or defense-budget shock would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $142.28 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 31, 2026 | — | $142.28 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 14, 2026 | $130.98–$153.58 typical range · internal point $141.50 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Weak momentum and neutral sentiment keep it flat |
| What actually happened: closed $128.86 on Sep 11, 2026 = -9.4% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $125.91–$158.65 typical range · internal point $143.00 | — | ±11.5% | 5/10 | Low-beta drift with risk-on tape mild lift |
| What actually happened: closed $121.83 on Sep 30, 2026 = -14.4% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 14.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $146.50 | — | +3.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $152.00 | — | +6.8% | 4/10 | Year-end defense budget optics and rotation into quality |
| 4 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $156.00 | — | +9.6% | 4/10 | Continued mean-reversion, no earnings catalyst yet |
| 5 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $161.00 | — | +13.2% | 4/10 | Q4 earnings likely reinforces beat streak |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $164.50 | — | +15.6% | 3/10 | Converges near baseline and prior endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $167.97 (+18.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $142.28 |
| Composite fair value | $168.60 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $204.43 |
| DCF fair value | $213.84 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $170.30 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $125.00 |
| Value net score | +13 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 46.3% 3m 39.9% 6m 35.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.72 3m 0.57 5m 0.34 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -19.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 27d behind | LDOS-20260803-122903-4371 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260831-003259-653d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260831-003259-653d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260831-003259-653d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260831-003259-653d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | LDOS-20260831-000001-b076 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | LDOS-20260831-000001-b076 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $142.28 | $164.50 | +15.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.34 | $164.00 | +16.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $134.81 | $162.50 | +20.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $142.04 | $168.50 | +18.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.38 | $165.00 | +17.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $130.60 | $157.50 | +20.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.