Made on
Aug 31, 2026
Price at call
$38.11
6-month call
Bull +24.7%
Target by Mar 2027
$47.50
Great value below
$36.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+24.7% to $47.50
Predicted High
$47.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$38.30
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 31, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
G trends higher to
$47.50
(+24.7% from $38.11)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisGenpact is undervalued on multiple anchors with steady earnings beats but muted sentiment and negative momentum. Path drifts sideways initially, then convergence toward fair value drives gradual upside over months as the risk-on regime supports re-rating.
Invalidated ifBreak below $36 support or an earnings miss would falsify the convergence thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $38.11 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 31, 2026 | — | $38.11 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 14, 2026 | $34.97–$41.25 typical range · internal point $38.30 | — | ±8.2% | 7/10 | No catalyst, drifts near current in risk-on tape |
| What actually happened: closed $35.14 on Sep 11, 2026 = -7.8% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.2%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $33.56–$42.66 typical range · internal point $38.90 | — | ±11.9% | 6/10 | Mild lift as value buyers accumulate near floor |
| What actually happened: closed $32.53 on Sep 30, 2026 = -14.6% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 16.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $40.20 | — | +5.5% | 5/10 | Slow grind higher, sentiment stabilizes |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $42.50 | — | +11.5% | 5/10 | Convergence begins, quality compounder narrative |
| 4 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $44.00 | — | +15.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, value gravity pulls upward |
| 5 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $45.80 | — | +20.2% | 4/10 | Earnings anticipation, beat streak supports bid |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $47.50 | — | +24.7% | 3/10 | Continued re-rating toward signal-adjusted fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $48.75 (+27.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $38.11 |
| Composite fair value | $56.95 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $49.77 |
| DCF fair value | $68.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $50.76 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $36.00 |
| Value net score | +31 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +50 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 31.8% 3m 41.3% 6m 38.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.23 3m -0.71 5m -0.59 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 27d behind | G-20260803-164946-c090 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260831-014923-d19b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260831-014923-d19b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260831-014923-d19b |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260831-014923-d19b |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | G-20260831-013001-203d |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | G-20260831-013001-203d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.32 | $46.00 | +23.3% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $38.11 | $47.50 | +24.7% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.68 | $45.80 | +21.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.57 | $48.20 | +28.3% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $36.41 | $44.10 | +21.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $34.37 | $42.30 | +23.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $35.16 | $43.50 | +23.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.