Made on
Aug 31, 2026
Price at call
$65.44
6-month call
Bear -8.3%
Target by Mar 2027
$60.00
Great value below
$50.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.3% to $60.00
Predicted High
$67.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$60.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 31, 2026 1:07 pm
Bear
DOCU trends lower to
$60.00
(-8.3% from $65.44)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisDOCU has run 42% in 6 months on an AI-integration narrative, but composite fair value sits below $52 and value lens is deeply negative. Expect near-term momentum drift and possible modest extension, then gradual mean reversion toward the $60 anchor zone as the AI story matures without earnings catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break above $75 on sustained volume or a decisive breakdown below $58 before November would invalidate the drift-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $65.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 31, 2026 | — | $65.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 14, 2026 | $58.00–$72.88 typical range · internal point $66.80 | — | ±11.4% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape carry price modestly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $65.65 on Sep 11, 2026 = +0.3% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±11.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $54.65–$76.23 typical range · internal point $67.50 | — | ±16.5% | 5/10 | AI narrative and low beta sustain mild drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $67.15 on Sep 30, 2026 = +2.6% vs the call (predicted +3.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±16.5%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $66.20 | — | +1.2% | 4/10 | No catalyst; profit-taking begins near resistance |
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $64.00 | — | -2.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $63.00 | — | -3.7% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $61.50 | — | -6.0% | 3/10 | Mean reversion continues toward anchored valuation |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $60.00 | — | -8.3% | 3/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $68.36 (+4.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $65.44 |
| Composite fair value | $51.80 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $56.69 |
| DCF fair value | $83.08 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $30.01 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $50.00 |
| Value net score | -49 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +44 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 54.5% 3m 57.1% 6m 50.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.57 3m 0.83 5m 0.30 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 42.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 27d behind | DOCU-20260803-171030-8416 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260831-024826-b7bb |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260831-024826-b7bb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260831-024826-b7bb |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOCU-20260831-024826-b7bb |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | DOCU-20260831-023001-1e4f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | DOCU-20260831-023001-1e4f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $65.44 | $60.00 | -8.3% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $55.13 | $63.00 | +14.3% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.