Made on
Sep 3, 2026
Price at call
$136.05
6-month call
Bull +18.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$160.50
Great value below
$120.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+18.0% to $160.50
Predicted High
$160.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$137.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 3, 2026 1:00 pm
Bull
COP trends higher to
$160.50
(+18.0% from $136.05)
by Mar 2027.
other
ThesisCOP trades at a meaningful discount to composite fair value ($213) with recent positive momentum (18.6% trailing 6m) and no earnings catalyst pending. Path drifts higher toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity acts, but negative beta and thin narrative cap upside; expect gradual grind, not a breakout.
Invalidated ifBreak below $120 on oil weakness or a shift to risk-on regime that abandons defensives would falsify the drift-up path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $136.05 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 3, 2026 | — | $136.05 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 17, 2026 | $127.70–$144.40 typical range · internal point $137.80 | — | ±6.1% | 7/10 | Momentum carries near-term drift with neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $132.54 on Sep 16, 2026 = -2.6% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.9 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.1%: inside the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 3, 2026 | $123.95–$148.15 typical range · internal point $140.20 | — | ±8.9% | 6/10 | Value gap begins pulling price higher slowly |
| What actually happened: closed $126.76 on Oct 2, 2026 = -6.8% vs the call (predicted +3.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.9%: inside the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $144.00 | — | +5.8% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings window supports re-rating on beat history |
| 3 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $148.50 | — | +9.2% | 5/10 | Post-print drift toward prior model endpoint |
| 4 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $152.00 | — | +11.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into defensive energy names |
| 5 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $156.00 | — | +14.7% | 4/10 | Continued value convergence, sentiment still fragile |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $160.50 | — | +18.0% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline as discount narrows |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $168.72 (+24.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $136.05 |
| Composite fair value | $213.62 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $214.04 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $215.43 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $120.00 |
| Value net score | +20 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +42 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.4% 3m 30.8% 6m 31.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.57 3m -1.01 5m -1.31 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | 27d behind | COP-20260806-000518-d183 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260902-232512-7e68 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260902-232512-7e68 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260902-232512-7e68 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260902-232512-7e68 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | COP-20260902-230001-529f |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 2, 2026 | freshest | COP-20260902-230001-529f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.