TTD
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The Trade Desk, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Made on
Sep 5, 2026
Price at call
$14.44
6-month call
Bull +27.4%
Target by Mar 2027
$18.40
Great value below
$16.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+27.4% to $18.40
Predicted High
$18.40
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$13.80
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 5, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
TTD trends higher to
$18.40
(+27.4% from $14.44)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisTTD is deeply oversold with sentiment washed out at -83, trading well below every fair value anchor except bear. Near-term tape stays heavy from layoff overhang and DSP rotation narrative, but risk-on regime and value gravity toward $18-21 pulls the stock higher over the 6-month window, likely with a base-building phase before recovery.
Invalidated ifBreak below $11 on volume, or a Q3 print with guidance cut confirming AppLovin share loss, would invalidate the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $14.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 5, 2026 | — | $14.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 19, 2026 | $12.46–$16.42 typical range · internal point $14.10 | — | ±13.7% | 6/10 | sentiment overhang keeps tape heavy near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $13.92 on Sep 18, 2026 = -3.6% vs the call (predicted -2.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±13.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 5, 2026 | $11.58–$17.30 typical range · internal point $13.80 | — | ±19.8% | 5/10 | rotation pressure and no near catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $11.95 on Oct 2, 2026 = -17.2% vs the call (predicted -4.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±19.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $14.60 | — | +1.1% | 4/10 | earnings window bounce if guide holds |
| 3 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $15.80 | — | +9.4% | 4/10 | value buyers step in below fair value |
| 4 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $16.80 | — | +16.3% | 4/10 | base builds as sentiment normalizes |
| 5 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $17.60 | — | +21.9% | 3/10 | mean reversion toward DCF anchor |
| 6 months | Mar 5, 2027 | $18.40 | — | +27.4% | 3/10 | convergence toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $17.50 (+21.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $14.44 |
| Composite fair value | $20.94 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $26.35 |
| DCF fair value | $18.94 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $37.55 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $16.00 |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 96.8% 3m 68.7% 6m 64.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.50 3m 0.75 5m 0.74 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -50.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 36d behind | TTD-20260730-143259-1bed |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260904-234328-d252 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260904-234328-d252 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260904-234328-d252 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260904-234328-d252 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | TTD-20260904-233001-2ffb |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 4, 2026 | freshest | TTD-20260904-233001-2ffb |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $14.44 | $18.40 | +27.4% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.78 | $16.60 | +20.5% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.55 | $16.50 | +21.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.00 | $16.40 | +26.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.16 | $17.60 | +33.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.49 | $19.40 | +43.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 4, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $19.10 | $19.33 | +1.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.