Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$1,144.31
6-month call
Bear -7.4%
Target by Mar 2027
$1,060.00
Great value below
$1,050.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.4% to $1,060.00
Predicted High
$1,162.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$1,060.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:06 pm
Bear
LLY trends lower to
$1,060.00
(-7.4% from $1,144.31)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisLLY's GLP-1 monopoly narrative and analyst upgrades keep momentum firm near-term, but stretched valuation versus fair-value anchors and no earnings catalyst let value gravity slowly pull the price toward the $1,050 attractive line over the six-month window.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $1,220 on GLP-1 catalyst or below $1,020 on pipeline/competitive setback
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,144.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $1,144.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $1,070.34–$1,218.28 typical range · internal point $1,155.00 | — | ±6.5% | 7/10 | Momentum and platform narrative persist short term |
| What actually happened: closed $1,149.85 on Oct 1, 2026 = +0.5% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $1,037.11–$1,251.51 typical range · internal point $1,162.00 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Analyst upgrades continue supporting drift higher |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $1,140.00 | — | -0.4% | 5/10 | Valuation concerns begin capping upside |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $1,115.00 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Year-end profit-taking amid rich multiple |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $1,095.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward fair-value composite |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $1,075.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Drift toward attractive-below threshold |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $1,060.00 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | Approaching value zone as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $1,039.05 (-9.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,144.31 |
| Composite fair value | $671.20 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $659.42 |
| DCF fair value | $287.39 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,379.78 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $1,050.00 |
| Value net score | +21 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.1% 3m 32.5% 6m 33.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.63 3m -0.51 5m -0.03 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 25.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | LLY-20260730-001020-b9e7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260917-162326-6e90 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260917-162326-6e90 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260917-162326-6e90 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260917-162326-6e90 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | LLY-20260730-001020-b9e7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | LLY-20260730-001020-b9e7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.