Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$551.73
6-month call
Bear -5.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$520.00
Great value below
$415.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.8% to $520.00
Predicted High
$548.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$520.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:12 pm
Bear
MSCI trends lower to
$520.00
(-5.8% from $551.73)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisMSCI trades at a rich premium to composite fair value ($326) with sentiment turning negative in a neutral tape, but high quality and no near-term earnings catalyst limit the pace of derating. Expect modest drift lower over 6 months, roughly tracking the deterministic baseline with mild sentiment-driven weakness early and value gravity extending the fade.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $580 on positive platform/index flow news, or a risk-on regime shift, would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $551.73 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $551.73 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $513.47–$589.99 typical range · internal point $548.00 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | Mild sentiment drag in neutral tape, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $545.39 on Oct 1, 2026 = -1.2% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $496.29–$607.17 typical range · internal point $544.00 | — | ±10.0% | 6/10 | Priced-for-perfection narrative weighs, no earnings support |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $538.00 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Continued derating as risk-off nascent tape persists |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $532.00 | — | -3.6% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning, valuation gravity increases |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $528.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | January reset, quality floor limits downside |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $524.00 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | Approach to Q4 print restrains buyers |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $520.00 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward $415 attractive zone, slow fade |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $521.52 (-5.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $551.73 |
| Composite fair value | $325.68 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $328.03 |
| DCF fair value | $337.52 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $542.28 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $415.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +85 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.4% 3m 34.8% 6m 30.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.24 3m -0.01 5m 0.09 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -1.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | MSCI-20260728-000553-c61e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSCI-20260917-163521-873e |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSCI-20260917-163521-873e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSCI-20260917-163521-873e |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSCI-20260917-163521-873e |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | MSCI-20260728-000553-c61e |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | MSCI-20260728-000553-c61e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $551.73 | $520.00 | -5.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $571.03 | $525.00 | -8.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.