Made on
Jul 13, 2026
Price at call
$134.32
6-month call
Bull +24.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$167.22
Great value below
$120.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jul 13, 2026 10:28 pm
Bull
CHKP trends higher to
$167.22
(+24.5% from $134.32)
by Jan 2027.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $134.32 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 13, 2026 | — | $134.32 at call | — |
| M1 | Aug 13, 2026 | $139.80 | — | +4.1% |
| What actually happened: closed $129.29 on Aug 12, 2026 = -3.7% vs the call (predicted +4.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 7.8 pp · accuracy 7/10 · S&P +3.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M2 | Sep 13, 2026 | $145.29 | — | +8.2% |
| M3 | Oct 13, 2026 | $150.77 | — | +12.2% |
| M4 | Nov 13, 2026 | $156.25 | — | +16.3% |
| M5 | Dec 13, 2026 | $161.73 | — | +20.4% |
| M6 | Jan 13, 2027 | $167.22 | — | +24.5% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $226.85; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 35.6%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $134.32 |
| Composite fair value | $178.85 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $215.25 |
| DCF fair value | $221.95 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $158.61 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $120.00 |
| Value net score | +10 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $200.40 |
| Quality tilt | +13.2% |
| Deserved value (used) | $226.85 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 1.00 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.0% 3m 57.1% 6m 47.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.61 3m -0.61 5m -0.16 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -29.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
May 7, 2026 | 67d behind | CHKP-20260507-171743-a8f5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHKP-20260713-221746-2328 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHKP-20260713-221746-2328 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHKP-20260713-221746-2328 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 13, 2026 | freshest | CHKP-20260713-220002-c769 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 13, 2026 | freshest | CHKP-20260713-220002-c769 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($215.25) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (-29.6%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.