Made on
Jul 21, 2026
Price at call
$28.26
6-month call
Neutral +3.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$29.10
Great value below
$24.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+3.0% to $29.10
Predicted High
$29.10
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$27.40
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 21, 2026 8:51 am
Neutral
CVE trends range-bound to
$29.10
(+3.0% from $28.26)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCVE trades close to composite fair value ($29.12) after a strong 6-month run, so upside is capped while modestly negative value and sentiment signals plus a neutral regime argue for a small drift lower before value gravity pulls it back toward $29. Negative beta and muted narrative suggest choppy, mean-reverting action rather than a directional move.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $31 or below $25 on oil/earnings catalysts would falsify the range-bound mean-reversion thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $28.26 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 21, 2026 | — | $28.26 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 4, 2026 | $26.09–$30.43 typical range · internal point $28.10 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Weak momentum and heavy sentiment cap near-term upside |
| What actually happened: closed $29.57 on Aug 3, 2026 = +4.6% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.2 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 21, 2026 | $25.11–$31.41 typical range · internal point $27.70 | — | ±11.1% | 6/10 | Mild drift lower as overbought 6m rally digests |
| What actually happened: closed $32.48 on Aug 20, 2026 = +14.9% vs the call (predicted -2.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 16.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +1.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 21, 2026 | $27.40 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Value lens attractive-below-24 keeps pressure on rallies |
| 3 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $27.90 | — | -1.3% | 5/10 | Q3 results stabilize tape, gravity toward fair value |
| 4 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $28.50 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Neutral regime, negative beta cushions broader wobbles |
| 5 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $28.90 | — | +2.3% | 4/10 | Drift toward composite fair value into year-end |
| 6 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $29.10 | — | +3.0% | 4/10 | Convergence to $29.12 anchor, quality lens supportive |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $29.15 (+3.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $28.26 |
| Composite fair value | $29.12 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $29.12 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $24.00 |
| Value net score | -15 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +25 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.3% 3m 38.6% 6m 37.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.50 3m -0.55 5m -0.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 56.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | CVE-20260721-030001-1e52 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260721-083846-b166 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260721-083846-b166 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260721-083846-b166 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-CVE-20260721-083846-b166 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | CVE-20260721-030001-1e52 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | CVE-20260721-030001-1e52 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $31.01 | $30.90 | -0.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Neutral | $28.26 | $29.10 | +3.0% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.