Made on
Jul 21, 2026
Price at call
$57.40
6-month call
Bear -10.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$51.20
Great value below
$44.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.8% to $51.20
Predicted High
$57.80
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$51.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 21, 2026 8:53 am
Bear
FITB trends lower to
$51.20
(-10.8% from $57.40)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFITB trades well above composite fair value near $41, but low beta, positive award-driven sentiment, and a neutral regime slow the reversion. Expect modest near-term firmness, then gradual drift lower as valuation gravity asserts over months, with earnings catalysts nudging the path.
Invalidated ifA breakout above $60 on strong Q3 earnings beat or hawkish rate repricing that lifts regional banks broadly would falsify the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $57.40 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 21, 2026 | — | $57.40 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 4, 2026 | $54.40–$60.40 typical range · internal point $57.80 | — | ±5.2% | 6/10 | Positive sentiment and low beta keep price sticky |
| What actually happened: closed $56.90 on Aug 3, 2026 = -0.9% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.2%: inside the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 21, 2026 | $53.06–$61.74 typical range · internal point $57.20 | — | ±7.6% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, minor drift, no catalyst yet |
| What actually happened: closed $54.50 on Aug 20, 2026 = -5.1% vs the call (predicted -0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.6%: inside the band · S&P +1.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 21, 2026 | $55.90 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, valuation concerns begin surfacing |
| 3 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $54.50 | — | -5.1% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings reaction, mixed guidance weighs modestly |
| 4 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $53.00 | — | -7.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $52.00 | — | -9.4% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling on outperformers accelerates fade |
| 6 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $51.20 | — | -10.8% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward anchored-PE $41 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $55.03 (-4.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $57.40 |
| Composite fair value | $41.26 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $38.33 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $40.97 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $44.00 |
| Value net score | -83 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +40 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.3% 3m 26.2% 6m 29.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.19 3m 0.21 5m 0.75 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | FITB-20260721-030001-12aa |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FITB-20260721-083846-780c |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FITB-20260721-083846-780c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FITB-20260721-083846-780c |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FITB-20260721-083846-780c |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | FITB-20260721-030001-12aa |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | FITB-20260721-030001-12aa |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $54.82 | $48.80 | -11.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $57.40 | $51.20 | -10.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.