Made on
Jul 21, 2026
Price at call
$209.29
6-month call
Bear -6.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$196.50
Great value below
$145.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.1% to $196.50
Predicted High
$208.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$196.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 21, 2026 8:56 am
Bear
EA trends lower to
$196.50
(-6.1% from $209.29)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisEA trades well above fair value with negative value/sentiment lenses and insider selling, but low beta and neutral regime limit near-term downside. Expect a slow drift lower toward the deterministic baseline as valuation gravity and analyst targets pull the tape, with an earnings-driven wobble mid-window.
Invalidated ifA break above $220 on strong FY guidance or a buyout rumor would falsify this drift-lower path
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $209.29 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 21, 2026 | — | $209.29 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 4, 2026 | $207.69–$210.89 typical range · internal point $208.50 | — | ±0.8% | 6/10 | Low-vol drift, no near catalyst, sentiment mildly negative |
| What actually happened: closed $209.91 on Aug 3, 2026 = +0.3% vs the call (predicted -0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±0.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 21, 2026 | $206.97–$211.61 typical range · internal point $206.00 | — | ±1.1% | 6/10 | Insider selling overhang, analyst targets below tape |
| What actually happened: closed $209.70 on Aug 10, 2026 = +0.2% vs the call (predicted -1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±1.1%: inside the band · S&P +3.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 21, 2026 | $202.50 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | Earnings window introduces volatility, guidance skew risk |
| 3 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $204.00 | — | -2.5% | 4/10 | Post-print relief bounce if bookings hold |
| 4 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $200.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity resumes, holiday slate scrutiny |
| 5 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $198.00 | — | -5.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax-loss absent given flat YTD |
| 6 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $196.50 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline, fair value gap persists |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $197.61 (-5.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $209.29 |
| Composite fair value | $118.55 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $104.65 |
| DCF fair value | $145.92 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $145.00 |
| Value net score | -96 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +52 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 4.4% 3m 3.8% 6m 6.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 0.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.12 3m -0.06 5m 0.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | EA-20260721-030001-c4fa |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260721-083846-fddb |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260721-083846-fddb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260721-083846-fddb |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-EA-20260721-083846-fddb |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | EA-20260721-030001-c4fa |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | EA-20260721-030001-c4fa |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $209.70 | $211.50 | +0.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $209.29 | $196.50 | -6.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.