Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$84.55
6-month call
Neutral -3.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$81.50
Great value below
$72.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.6% to $81.50
Predicted High
$88.10
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$81.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:15 am
Neutral
EW trends range-bound to
$81.50
(-3.6% from $84.55)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisEW prints Q2 earnings on 2026-07-23 with a strong beat history (7 of 8) and rising analyst targets, likely fueling a near-term pop. Quality is solid but value lens is negative above $72, so gains fade as valuation gravity reasserts over the medium term in a neutral tape.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or guide-down that snaps price below $80, or a break above $92 on sustained volume, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $84.55 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $84.55 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $79.71–$89.39 typical range · internal point $87.25 | — | ±5.7% | 6/10 | Earnings beat likely lifts price post-print |
| What actually happened: closed $89.60 on Aug 4, 2026 = +6.0% vs the call (predicted +3.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 2.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.7%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $77.54–$91.56 typical range · internal point $88.10 | — | ±8.3% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift with analyst upgrades |
| What actually happened: closed $89.78 on Aug 21, 2026 = +6.2% vs the call (predicted +4.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 2.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.3%: inside the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $86.80 | — | +2.7% | 5/10 | Momentum cools, neutral tape caps upside |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $85.00 | — | +0.5% | 4/10 | Valuation gravity pulls back toward fair range |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $83.50 | — | -1.2% | 4/10 | Pre-Q3 positioning, value lens weighs |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $82.00 | — | -3.0% | 3/10 | Year-end tax positioning, mild drift lower |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $81.50 | — | -3.6% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward attractive-below level |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $84.55 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.8% 3m 28.7% 6m 27.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.24 3m 0.59 5m 0.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | EW-20260722-030001-1fc4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-EW-20260722-055558-e1b4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-EW-20260722-055558-e1b4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-EW-20260722-055558-e1b4 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-EW-20260722-055558-e1b4 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | EW-20260722-030001-1fc4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | EW-20260722-030001-1fc4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $90.81 | $83.50 | -8.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $84.55 | $81.50 | -3.6% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.