Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$3,013.03
6-month call
Bull +6.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$3,200.00
Great value below
$2,600.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.2% to $3,200.00
Predicted High
$3,200.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$2,985.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:26 am
Bull
AZO trends higher to
$3,200.00
(+6.2% from $3,013.03)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisAZO trades below composite fair value with sentiment-driven analyst optimism as the main tailwind, but weak recent momentum (-14.5% 6mo) and a 2-of-8 EPS beat rate cap near-term recovery. Expect gradual drift toward the composite anchor with an earnings-related bend around the September print.
Invalidated ifA large Sept earnings miss driving AZO below $2,700, or breach above $3,300 pre-earnings on unexpected momentum shift
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $3,013.03 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $3,013.03 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $2,799.64–$3,226.42 typical range · internal point $3,025.00 | — | ±7.1% | 6/10 | Low-vol defensive drift in neutral regime |
| What actually happened: closed $3,028.03 on Aug 4, 2026 = +0.5% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.1%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $2,703.80–$3,322.26 typical range · internal point $3,045.00 | — | ±10.3% | 5/10 | Mild mean reversion toward composite fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $2,958.65 on Aug 21, 2026 = -1.8% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±10.3%: inside the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $2,985.00 | — | -0.9% | 3/10 | Sept earnings risk given 25% beat rate |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $3,080.00 | — | +2.2% | 4/10 | Post-print reset, value gravity resumes |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $3,140.00 | — | +4.2% | 4/10 | Analyst optimism pulls toward anchored PE |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $3,175.00 | — | +5.4% | 4/10 | Year-end defensive bid, low beta favored |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $3,200.00 | — | +6.2% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $3,203.77 (+6.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $3,013.03 |
| Composite fair value | $3,209.03 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $2,737.30 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $4,249.36 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $2,600.00 |
| Value net score | -60 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +50 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.8% 3m 35.6% 6m 33.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.18 3m -0.23 5m 0.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -14.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | AZO-20260722-030001-5d8b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260722-055558-9e47 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260722-055558-9e47 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260722-055558-9e47 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AZO-20260722-055558-9e47 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | AZO-20260722-030001-5d8b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $3,025.00 | $2,860.00 | -5.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $3,013.03 | $3,200.00 | +6.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.