Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$528.37
6-month call
Neutral -4.4%
Target by Jan 2027
$505.00
Great value below
$430.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.4% to $505.00
Predicted High
$538.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$505.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:34 am
Neutral
AMP trends range-bound to
$505.00
(-4.4% from $528.37)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAMP prints earnings inside the w2 window with a strong beat history, likely giving a small pop, but composite fair value ~$384 and stretched valuation create gradual downward gravity over 6 months. Low beta and quality profile prevent a sharp fall; expect a modest fade toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or guide-down driving price below $490, or a breakout above $560 on strong beat plus multiple expansion
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $528.37 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $528.37 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $502.12–$554.62 typical range · internal point $538.00 | — | ±5.0% | 6/10 | Earnings beat pattern supports modest post-print pop |
| What actually happened: closed $553.58 on Aug 4, 2026 = +4.8% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.0%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $490.33–$566.41 typical range · internal point $534.00 | — | ±7.2% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift, neutral regime holds |
| What actually happened: closed $555.66 on Aug 21, 2026 = +5.2% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 4.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.2%: inside the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $525.00 | — | -0.6% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $518.00 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Next print approaches, mild derating continues |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $515.00 | — | -2.5% | 4/10 | Q3 earnings digestion, low-beta drift |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $510.00 | — | -3.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, value gap persists |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $505.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward deserved value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $514.91 (-2.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $528.37 |
| Composite fair value | $383.59 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $383.59 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $430.00 |
| Value net score | -63 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +90 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.5% 3m 24.9% 6m 28.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.72 3m 0.29 5m 0.62 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | AMP-20260722-030001-39a8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260722-055558-5e3f |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260722-055558-5e3f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260722-055558-5e3f |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMP-20260722-055558-5e3f |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | AMP-20260722-030001-39a8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | AMP-20260722-030001-39a8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $569.54 | $680.00 | +19.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $528.37 | $505.00 | -4.4% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.