Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$367.73
6-month call
Bull +8.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$398.00
Great value below
$315.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.2% to $398.00
Predicted High
$398.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$378.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:50 am
Bull
GD trends higher to
$398.00
(+8.2% from $367.73)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGD sits near composite fair value with a supportive quality/sentiment backdrop and an imminent earnings print that has beaten 6 of 8 quarters. Expect a modest post-earnings pop, then slow grind toward the signal-adjusted fair value zone as the defense-compounder narrative carries into year-end, moderating as price approaches the higher anchors.
Invalidated ifEarnings miss on 7/29 or guide-down driving close below $340; alternatively a break above $410 without fundamental support would also invalidate the moderated path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $367.73 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $367.73 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $348.08–$387.38 typical range · internal point $378.50 | — | ±5.3% | 5/10 | Earnings print inside window; beat history supports modest lift |
| What actually happened: closed $385.76 on Aug 4, 2026 = +4.9% vs the call (predicted +2.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.3%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $339.26–$396.20 typical range · internal point $382.00 | — | ±7.7% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift as analyst estimates nudge higher |
| What actually happened: closed $384.32 on Aug 21, 2026 = +4.5% vs the call (predicted +3.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.7%: inside the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $388.00 | — | +5.5% | 6/10 | Defense compounder narrative and buybacks sustain bid |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $393.00 | — | +6.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches; low-beta grind continues |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $396.00 | — | +7.7% | 4/10 | Approaching composite fair value ceiling; momentum cools |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $392.00 | — | +6.6% | 4/10 | Year-end tape-painting with mild profit-taking |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $398.00 | — | +8.2% | 3/10 | 2027 defense budget clarity; drift toward signal-adjusted anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $374.72 (+1.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $367.73 |
| Composite fair value | $355.08 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $466.99 |
| DCF fair value | $351.61 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $527.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $315.00 |
| Value net score | -40 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 19.4% 3m 26.8% 6m 24.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.04 3m 0.05 5m 0.17 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 8, 2026 | 13d behind | GD-20260708-030001-791f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260721-111342-dd49 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260721-111342-dd49 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260721-111342-dd49 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260721-111342-dd49 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | GD-20260721-110754-094a |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | GD-20260721-110754-094a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.