ACN
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Accenture plc Class A ordinary shares
Technology · Information Technology Services
Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$140.86
6-month call
Bull +22.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$172.00
Great value below
$128.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+22.1% to $172.00
Predicted High
$172.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$142.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:51 am
Bull
ACN trends higher to
$172.00
(+22.1% from $140.86)
by Jan 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisACN trades deeply below composite fair value ($179) after a punishing 50% 6-month drawdown, but sentiment is negative and the narrative stale. Expect a slow grind higher as value gravity works, with a potential inflection around the late-September earnings print given 8/8 beat history, then modest continuation toward the anchored PE zone.
Invalidated ifA miss or guidance cut at the Sept 24 print, or a break below $128 on volume, invalidates the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $140.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $140.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $124.21–$157.51 typical range · internal point $142.50 | — | ±11.8% | 6/10 | Oversold bounce stalls in neutral regime tape |
| What actually happened: closed $170.43 on Aug 4, 2026 = +21.0% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 19.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $116.73–$164.99 typical range · internal point $145.00 | — | ±17.1% | 5/10 | Drift up toward anchored-PE as sellers exhaust |
| What actually happened: closed $185.26 on Aug 21, 2026 = +31.5% vs the call (predicted +2.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 28.6 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±17.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $148.00 | — | +5.1% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, cautious IT-services sentiment |
| What actually happened: closed $186.11 on Sep 21, 2026 = +32.1% vs the call (predicted +5.1%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 27.1 pp · accuracy 3/10 · S&P +3.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $158.00 | — | +12.2% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely, guide reset lifts narrative |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $163.00 | — | +15.7% | 4/10 | Post-print follow-through toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $168.00 | — | +19.3% | 4/10 | Value convergence continues, year-end rotation into quality |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $172.00 | — | +22.1% | 3/10 | Grind toward baseline endpoint as narrative rebuilds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $175.52 (+24.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $140.86 |
| Composite fair value | $179.20 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $204.40 |
| DCF fair value | $222.06 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $145.04 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $128.00 |
| Value net score | +29 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +94 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 44.3% 3m 59.3% 6m 53.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.50 3m -0.82 5m -0.30 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -49.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 12, 2026 | 9d behind | ACN-20260712-031110-e298 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260721-111309-f469 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260721-111309-f469 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260721-111309-f469 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260721-111309-f469 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260721-110753-534a |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260721-110753-534a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $190.28 | $206.00 | +8.3% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $189.57 | $206.50 | +8.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $185.26 | $205.75 | +11.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $165.76 | $186.00 | +12.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $146.99 | $176.50 | +20.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.86 | $172.00 | +22.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $135.23 | $209.98 | +55.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.