Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$75.33
6-month call
Bull +14.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$86.50
Great value below
$68.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+14.8% to $86.50
Predicted High
$86.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$74.20
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:51 am
Bull
ZTS trends higher to
$86.50
(+14.8% from $75.33)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisZTS is deeply oversold on a broken-compounder narrative but retains best-in-class quality; near-term earnings on Aug 6 is the key catalyst that can either extend the pain or begin a slow mean-reversion toward fair value. Expect choppy action into the print, then a gradual grind higher as value gravity reasserts over months, ending below full fair value as sentiment scars linger.
Invalidated ifAnother guide-down at Aug 6 print or break below $68 bear anchor invalidates the recovery path; sustained close under $70 kills the thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $75.33 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $75.33 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $66.67–$83.99 typical range · internal point $74.20 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | Drift lower into earnings on cautious positioning |
| What actually happened: closed $76.04 on Aug 4, 2026 = +0.9% vs the call (predicted -1.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±11.5%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $62.78–$87.88 typical range · internal point $77.50 | — | ±16.7% | 4/10 | Post-earnings reaction; beat streak vs guide risk |
| What actually happened: closed $77.74 on Aug 21, 2026 = +3.2% vs the call (predicted +2.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±16.7%: inside the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $79.80 | — | +5.9% | 5/10 | Stabilization as oversold condition unwinds |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $82.00 | — | +8.9% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below fair value anchors |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $83.50 | — | +10.8% | 5/10 | Next print and quality reassertion aid drift |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $85.00 | — | +12.8% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation into quality defensives |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $86.50 | — | +14.8% | 4/10 | Gradual convergence toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $84.29 (+11.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $75.33 |
| Composite fair value | $90.31 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $89.15 |
| DCF fair value | $81.54 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $123.20 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $68.00 |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +85 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.1% 3m 57.7% 6m 45.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.88 3m 0.21 5m 0.63 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -39.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jun 3, 2026 | 47d behind | ZTS-20260603-190341-36a7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260721-110055-ad9a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260721-110055-ad9a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260721-110055-ad9a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260721-110055-ad9a |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ZTS-20260721-105554-83a3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ZTS-20260721-105554-83a3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $73.54 | $82.80 | +12.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $75.33 | $86.50 | +14.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.