Made on
Jul 23, 2026
Price at call
$421.21
6-month call
Neutral -1.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$415.00
Great value below
$355.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-1.5% to $415.00
Predicted High
$455.00
at 3 months
Predicted Low
$415.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 23, 2026 3:35 am
Neutral
TSM trends range-bound to
$415.00
(-1.5% from $421.21)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTSM rides the AI-foundry monopoly narrative and positive sentiment near-term, likely grinding higher into the October earnings print where a beat continues the pattern, then decelerates as valuation gravity (attractive-below $355) and elevated beta expose it to any regime softening.
Invalidated ifBreak below $380 on volume, or an earnings miss/guide-down on Oct 15, or regime flipping risk-off would invalidate the melt-up path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $421.21 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 23, 2026 | — | $421.21 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 6, 2026 | $379.79–$462.63 typical range · internal point $430.00 | — | ±9.8% | 7/10 | Sentiment momentum and analyst upgrades extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $414.00 on Aug 5, 2026 = -1.7% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 23, 2026 | $361.18–$481.24 typical range · internal point $438.00 | — | ±14.3% | 6/10 | AI-foundry narrative persists into pre-earnings positioning |
| What actually happened: closed $418.95 on Aug 21, 2026 = -0.5% vs the call (predicted +4.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.5 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±14.3%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 23, 2026 | $445.00 | — | +5.6% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings run-up on beat-streak expectations |
| 3 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $455.00 | — | +8.0% | 4/10 | Oct 15 earnings beat likely; guidance sets tone |
| 4 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $442.00 | — | +4.9% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion; value gravity begins asserting |
| 5 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $425.00 | — | +0.9% | 3/10 | Year-end profit-taking; high beta amplifies any wobble |
| 6 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $415.00 | — | -1.5% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward attractive-below zone as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $421.21 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -24 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 53.9% 3m 49.4% 6m 44.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.16 3m 2.89 5m 2.45 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 28.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260723-030734-e4b9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260723-032630-67f3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260723-032630-67f3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260723-032630-67f3 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260723-032630-67f3 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260723-030734-e4b9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260723-030734-e4b9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.