Made on
Jul 24, 2026
Price at call
$43.36
6-month call
Bear -11.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$38.50
Great value below
$37.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.2% to $38.50
Predicted High
$43.10
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$38.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 24, 2026 9:02 am
Bear
SNY trends lower to
$38.50
(-11.2% from $43.36)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisSNY trades above composite fair value ($34.56) with a neutral-to-negative sentiment backdrop, GLP-1/biosimilar overhangs, and no near-term earnings catalyst. Low beta and defensive characteristics limit downside velocity, so expect a slow drift toward fair value rather than a sharp repricing, with mild stabilization as the stock approaches the mid-$30s.
Invalidated ifA break above $46 on positive pipeline/M&A news, or a break below $38 on a broad risk-off cascade, invalidates the slow-drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $43.36 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 24, 2026 | — | $43.36 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 7, 2026 | $40.99–$45.73 typical range · internal point $43.10 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | Risk-off regime, low beta cushions near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $42.89 on Aug 6, 2026 = -1.1% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 24, 2026 | $39.92–$46.80 typical range · internal point $42.60 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | No catalyst, mild mean reversion toward baseline |
| What actually happened: closed $45.85 on Aug 21, 2026 = +5.7% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +3.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 24, 2026 | $41.80 | — | -3.6% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $41.66 on Sep 23, 2026 = -3.9% vs the call (predicted -3.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $40.90 | — | -5.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, biosimilar narrative pressure |
| 4 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $39.80 | — | -8.2% | 4/10 | Continued drift as overvaluation gap compresses |
| 5 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $38.90 | — | -10.3% | 4/10 | Approaching attractive zone, buyers emerge below $39 |
| 6 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $38.50 | — | -11.2% | 4/10 | Stabilization near value anchor, defensive bid holds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $42.21 (-2.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $43.36 |
| Composite fair value | $34.56 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $34.56 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $37.00 |
| Value net score | -53 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +34 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.4% 3m 27.5% 6m 25.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.14 3m 0.28 5m 0.36 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 8, 2026 | 15d behind | SNY-20260708-030001-27e5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260723-130921-c89b |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260723-130921-c89b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260723-130921-c89b |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260723-130921-c89b |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | SNY-20260723-124200-4c25 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | SNY-20260723-124200-4c25 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.