Made on
Jul 25, 2026
Price at call
$47.53
6-month call
Neutral +3.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$49.20
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+3.5% to $49.20
Predicted High
$49.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$47.65
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 25, 2026 11:53 am
Neutral
EXC trends range-bound to
$49.20
(+3.5% from $47.53)
by Jan 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisEXC is a low-beta regulated utility trading essentially at composite fair value ($48.29) with modest positive drift. Path grinds slowly toward fair value with mild upside as sentiment stays quietly constructive, but no catalyst to justify significant deviation.
Invalidated ifA break below $45 on rate-case setback or above $51 on rally would falsify the slow-drift thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $47.53 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 25, 2026 | — | $47.53 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 8, 2026 | $45.51–$49.55 typical range · internal point $47.65 | — | ±4.3% | 7/10 | Low vol utility drifts near current with neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $45.62 on Aug 7, 2026 = -4.0% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.3 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±4.3%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 25, 2026 | $44.60–$50.46 typical range · internal point $47.85 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | Slow mean reversion toward fair value anchor |
| 2 months | Sep 25, 2026 | $48.15 | — | +1.3% | 6/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite $48.29 |
| 3 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $48.40 | — | +1.8% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely another beat, modest lift |
| 4 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $48.70 | — | +2.5% | 5/10 | Defensive bid as year-end positioning favors utilities |
| 5 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $49.00 | — | +3.1% | 4/10 | Signal-adjusted fair value $49.40 exerts pull |
| 6 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $49.20 | — | +3.5% | 4/10 | Approaches signal-adjusted anchor with rate tailwind |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $47.62 (+0.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $47.53 |
| Composite fair value | $48.29 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $49.40 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $48.55 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | -14 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -3 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.9% 3m 21.3% 6m 21.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.92 3m -0.54 5m -0.24 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 6.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | EXC-20260725-101648-abee |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260725-114448-262f |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260725-114448-262f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260725-114448-262f |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260725-114448-262f |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | EXC-20260725-101648-abee |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $45.30 | $46.35 | +2.3% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $47.53 | $49.20 | +3.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.