Made on
Jul 25, 2026
Price at call
$83.08
6-month call
Bull +6.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$88.50
Great value below
$72.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.5% to $88.50
Predicted High
$88.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$81.90
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 25, 2026 11:54 am
Bull
DEO trends higher to
$88.50
(+6.5% from $83.08)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDEO trades below composite fair value with defensive low-beta characteristics, but soft staples sentiment and negative value-lens signal keep near-term drift muted. Path drifts sideways-to-slightly-down early on sentiment weight, then grinds toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity reasserts over months.
Invalidated ifBreak below $76 on volume or a guide-down/margin warning invalidates recovery; conversely a decisive move above $92 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $83.08 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 25, 2026 | — | $83.08 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 8, 2026 | $78.13–$88.03 typical range · internal point $82.60 | — | ±6.0% | 6/10 | Soft staples tape, low beta caps downside near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $96.30 on Aug 7, 2026 = +15.9% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 16.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 25, 2026 | $75.90–$90.26 typical range · internal point $81.90 | — | ±8.6% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag continues, no catalyst to reprice |
| What actually happened: closed $96.07 on Aug 24, 2026 = +15.6% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 17.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 25, 2026 | $82.50 | — | -0.7% | 5/10 | Stabilization as value buyers step in below fair |
| What actually happened: closed $86.83 on Sep 24, 2026 = +4.5% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.2 pp · accuracy 8/10 · S&P +3.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $84.20 | — | +1.3% | 5/10 | Mean reversion toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 4 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $85.80 | — | +3.3% | 4/10 | Defensive rotation, DCF anchor pulls higher |
| 5 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $87.20 | — | +5.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors quality staples names |
| 6 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $88.50 | — | +6.5% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $88.74 (+6.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $83.08 |
| Composite fair value | $105.13 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $80.09 |
| DCF fair value | $122.89 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $84.42 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $72.00 |
| Value net score | -50 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -1 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 31.7% 3m 29.9% 6m 38.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.25 3m 0.12 5m 0.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -8.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | DEO-20260725-101648-4e1d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260725-114448-3995 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260725-114448-3995 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260725-114448-3995 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260725-114448-3995 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | DEO-20260725-101648-4e1d |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | DEO-20260725-101648-4e1d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $96.29 | $106.80 | +10.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $83.08 | $88.50 | +6.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.