Made on
Jul 25, 2026
Price at call
$389.32
6-month call
Bull +5.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$410.00
Great value below
$330.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+5.3% to $410.00
Predicted High
$412.00
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$394.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 25, 2026 11:55 am
Bull
HUM trends higher to
$410.00
(+5.3% from $389.32)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisHUM has ripped 46% over six months with a low-beta defensive profile and consistent EPS beats, but with no fair-value anchor and a bear scenario far above spot, the tape likely continues drifting higher on momentum and pre-earnings beat chatter, with mild consolidation as the MA regulatory narrative periodically caps enthusiasm.
Invalidated ifA break below $360 on heavy volume or an adverse MA regulatory headline would falsify the continued grind higher.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $389.32 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 25, 2026 | — | $389.32 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 8, 2026 | $356.03–$422.61 typical range · internal point $394.50 | — | ±8.6% | 7/10 | Momentum and low beta sustain modest drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $385.02 on Aug 7, 2026 = -1.1% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±8.6%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 25, 2026 | $341.08–$437.56 typical range · internal point $399.00 | — | ±12.4% | 6/10 | Pre-earnings beat chatter supports continued bid |
| 2 months | Sep 25, 2026 | $405.00 | — | +4.0% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely another beat given 3-of-3 streak |
| 3 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $402.00 | — | +3.3% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, MA overhang caps upside |
| 4 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $408.00 | — | +4.8% | 4/10 | Defensive bid returns in choppy tape |
| 5 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $412.00 | — | +5.8% | 3/10 | Year-end positioning favors quality defensives |
| 6 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $410.00 | — | +5.3% | 3/10 | Consolidation as regulatory narrative resurfaces |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $389.32 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -6 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +11 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.6% 3m 42.9% 6m 54.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.01 3m 0.23 5m 0.48 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 46.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | HUM-20260725-101648-a24c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260725-114448-bf92 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260725-114448-bf92 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260725-114448-bf92 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-HUM-20260725-114448-bf92 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | HUM-20260725-101648-a24c |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | HUM-20260725-101648-a24c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $384.31 | $332.00 | -13.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $389.32 | $410.00 | +5.3% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.