Made on
Jul 25, 2026
Price at call
$82.25
6-month call
Bear -6.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$76.80
Great value below
$68.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.6% to $76.80
Predicted High
$82.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$76.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 25, 2026 12:04 pm
Bear
SLF trends lower to
$76.80
(-6.6% from $82.25)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisSLF is materially overvalued vs composite fair value near $46 but supported by strong momentum (+31.5% 6mo), 5/5 earnings beats, and a defensive low-beta profile. With no immediate catalyst and neutral regime, expect gradual mean-reversion pressure toward the deterministic $76.70 endpoint, with earnings prints capable of temporarily stabilizing the tape.
Invalidated ifA break above $86 on strong volume or a materially better-than-expected earnings beat would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $82.25 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 25, 2026 | — | $82.25 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 8, 2026 | $79.20–$85.30 typical range · internal point $82.00 | — | ±3.7% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, neutral tape holds |
| What actually happened: closed $81.95 on Aug 7, 2026 = -0.4% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 25, 2026 | $77.84–$86.66 typical range · internal point $81.30 | — | ±5.4% | 6/10 | Mild gravity as momentum cools, no news |
| 2 months | Sep 25, 2026 | $80.20 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Value gap begins asserting, sector rotation risk |
| 3 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $79.50 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely beats but guidance caps upside |
| 4 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $78.30 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift lower toward fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $77.40 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | Year-end tax positioning on extended winners |
| 6 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $76.80 | — | -6.6% | 4/10 | Convergence to deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $76.70 (-6.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $82.25 |
| Composite fair value | $46.44 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $44.30 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $46.44 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $68.00 |
| Value net score | -57 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 14.4% 3m 18.6% 6m 20.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.36 3m 0.27 5m 0.52 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 31.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | SLF-20260725-101648-48e9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260725-114448-7c79 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260725-114448-7c79 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260725-114448-7c79 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-SLF-20260725-114448-7c79 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | SLF-20260725-101648-48e9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | SLF-20260725-101648-48e9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $78.80 | $88.80 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $82.25 | $76.80 | -6.6% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.