Made on
Jul 25, 2026
Price at call
$43.36
6-month call
Bull +10.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$47.80
Great value below
$39.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+10.2% to $47.80
Predicted High
$47.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$42.60
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 25, 2026 12:11 pm
Bull
SNY trends higher to
$47.80
(+10.2% from $43.36)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisSNY trades at a discount to composite fair value but a fresh pipeline failure and negative sentiment cap near-term upside. Low beta and earnings-beat history support a slow drift higher toward mid-40s, with value gravity pulling toward high-40s only if sentiment stabilizes.
Invalidated ifBreak below $40.64 bear scenario on further pipeline setbacks, or failure to reclaim $45 within 2 months
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $43.36 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 25, 2026 | — | $43.36 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 8, 2026 | $41.00–$45.72 typical range · internal point $42.90 | — | ±5.4% | 6/10 | pipeline failure overhang keeps pressure near term |
| What actually happened: closed $43.50 on Aug 7, 2026 = +0.3% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.4%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 25, 2026 | $39.94–$46.78 typical range · internal point $42.60 | — | ±7.9% | 5/10 | sentiment drift continues absent catalyst |
| 2 months | Sep 25, 2026 | $43.50 | — | +0.3% | 5/10 | stabilization as narrative digested |
| 3 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $44.80 | — | +3.3% | 5/10 | earnings beat pattern reasserts, value gravity begins |
| 4 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $46.20 | — | +6.5% | 4/10 | discount to fair value attracts defensive buyers |
| 5 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $47.00 | — | +8.4% | 4/10 | low-beta compounding toward composite anchor |
| 6 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $47.80 | — | +10.2% | 4/10 | partial convergence toward $55 fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $48.60 (+12.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $43.36 |
| Composite fair value | $55.05 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $54.60 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $74.53 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $39.00 |
| Value net score | +18 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +33 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.3% 3m 27.3% 6m 25.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.14 3m 0.30 5m 0.38 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -6.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 8, 2026 | 16d behind | SNY-20260708-030001-27e5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260724-091352-a789 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260724-091352-a789 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260724-091352-a789 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNY-20260724-091352-a789 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | SNY-20260723-124200-4c25 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | SNY-20260724-090704-c9a2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.