Made on
Jul 26, 2026
Price at call
$17.97
6-month call
Bull +26.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$22.75
Great value below
$15.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+26.6% to $22.75
Predicted High
$22.75
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$18.05
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 26, 2026 1:29 am
Bull
NWG trends higher to
$22.75
(+26.6% from $17.97)
by Jan 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisNWG trades at a steep discount to composite fair value ($51.69) with solid quality and consistent EPS beats, but weak sentiment and neutral regime cap near-term upside. Expect gradual re-rating over 6 months as value gravity asserts, though far below the deterministic baseline given no catalyst and low-intensity narrative.
Invalidated ifBreak below $15.50 on rising volume, or UK bank sector shock invalidating fallen-angel thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $17.97 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 26, 2026 | — | $17.97 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 9, 2026 | $16.82–$19.12 typical range · internal point $18.05 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, neutral regime, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $19.19 on Aug 7, 2026 = +6.8% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 6.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 26, 2026 | $16.30–$19.64 typical range · internal point $18.30 | — | ±9.3% | 6/10 | Mild mean reversion as sentiment drag fades |
| 2 months | Sep 26, 2026 | $19.10 | — | +6.3% | 5/10 | Earnings season approaches, beat history supports bid |
| 3 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $20.20 | — | +12.4% | 5/10 | Post-print re-rating on likely EPS beat |
| 4 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $21.00 | — | +16.9% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward discounted fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $21.80 | — | +21.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into cheap UK financials |
| 6 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $22.75 | — | +26.6% | 3/10 | Continued slow re-rate, well below baseline target |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $30.91 (+72.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $17.97 |
| Composite fair value | $51.69 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $50.71 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $51.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $15.50 |
| Value net score | +10 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +55 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.7% 3m 32.1% 6m 36.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.62 3m 1.29 5m 1.57 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | NWG-20260726-002605-0fca |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NWG-20260726-012018-6c8a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NWG-20260726-012018-6c8a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NWG-20260726-012018-6c8a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-NWG-20260726-012018-6c8a |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | NWG-20260726-002605-0fca |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | NWG-20260726-002605-0fca |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.