Made on
Jul 26, 2026
Price at call
$169.61
6-month call
Bear -5.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$161.00
Great value below
$125.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.1% to $161.00
Predicted High
$172.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$161.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 26, 2026 1:29 am
Bear
WCN trends lower to
$161.00
(-5.1% from $169.61)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisWCN screens deeply overvalued vs composite FV ~$98 but sentiment is fresh-positive after Q2 beat and raised guide, quality is elite (95/100), and low-beta defensive waste ownership rarely mean-reverts fast. Expect near-term drift higher on momentum then gradual fade as valuation gravity and no earnings catalyst until 2027 let air out modestly.
Invalidated ifA break above $180 on volume or below $158 would invalidate the drift-then-soften path; a surprise M&A print or guide cut also invalidates.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $169.61 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 26, 2026 | — | $169.61 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 9, 2026 | $161.79–$177.43 typical range · internal point $171.20 | — | ±4.6% | 7/10 | Post-beat momentum, low beta, no near-term catalyst risk |
| What actually happened: closed $166.71 on Aug 7, 2026 = -1.7% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.6%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 26, 2026 | $158.27–$180.95 typical range · internal point $172.50 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Quality bid persists, defensive rotation supportive |
| What actually happened: closed $166.15 on Aug 25, 2026 = -2.0% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.7%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 26, 2026 | $170.80 | — | +0.7% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind fading, no fresh catalyst |
| 3 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $168.00 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, valuation stretch noticed |
| 4 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $165.50 | — | -2.4% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, mild multiple compression |
| 5 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $163.00 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | Year-end tax considerations on winners, value gravity |
| 6 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $161.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Slow drift toward deterministic baseline, FV pull |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $160.42 (-5.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $169.61 |
| Composite fair value | $97.84 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $88.15 |
| DCF fair value | $103.53 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $121.38 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $125.00 |
| Value net score | -96 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +95 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 19.9% 3m 23.2% 6m 26.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.49 3m -0.71 5m -0.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | WCN-20260726-002605-8dbc |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260726-012018-29d2 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260726-012018-29d2 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260726-012018-29d2 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-WCN-20260726-012018-29d2 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | WCN-20260726-002605-8dbc |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | WCN-20260726-002605-8dbc |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $169.42 | $157.80 | -6.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $169.61 | $161.00 | -5.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.