Made on
Jul 26, 2026
Price at call
$544.32
6-month call
Bear -10.9%
Target by Jan 2027
$485.00
Great value below
$400.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.9% to $485.00
Predicted High
$552.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$485.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 26, 2026 1:32 am
Bear
IDXX trends lower to
$485.00
(-10.9% from $544.32)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisIDXX trades far above every fair-value anchor, but quality-monopoly narrative and positive momentum keep it elevated near-term. Value gravity pulls the stock lower over months as no catalyst offsets the extreme premium, though low beta and neutral regime moderate the drift.
Invalidated ifA break above $580 on strong volume, or a blowout earnings beat that resets consensus higher, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $544.32 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 26, 2026 | — | $544.32 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 9, 2026 | $509.66–$578.98 typical range · internal point $548.00 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Momentum and platform narrative sustain near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $586.67 on Aug 7, 2026 = +7.8% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 26, 2026 | $494.09–$594.55 typical range · internal point $552.00 | — | ±9.2% | 5/10 | Quality bid persists in neutral tape, mild drift up |
| 2 months | Sep 26, 2026 | $540.00 | — | -0.8% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings positioning as Q3 print approaches |
| 3 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $525.00 | — | -3.5% | 5/10 | Earnings met but guide fails to justify premium |
| 4 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $510.00 | — | -6.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity reasserts, no fresh catalyst |
| 5 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $495.00 | — | -9.1% | 4/10 | Year-end derisking trims high-multiple names |
| 6 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $485.00 | — | -10.9% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward deterministic baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $471.66 (-13.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $544.32 |
| Composite fair value | $118.58 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $119.58 |
| DCF fair value | $132.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $400.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.9% 3m 32.0% 6m 31.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.49 3m 0.61 5m 0.93 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -21.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | IDXX-20260726-002605-191b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260726-012018-9653 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260726-012018-9653 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260726-012018-9653 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IDXX-20260726-012018-9653 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | IDXX-20260726-002605-191b |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | IDXX-20260726-002605-191b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $567.84 | $505.00 | -11.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $544.32 | $485.00 | -10.9% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.