Made on
Jul 27, 2026
Price at call
$146.99
6-month call
Bull +20.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$176.50
Great value below
$155.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+20.1% to $176.50
Predicted High
$176.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$150.25
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 27, 2026 1:12 am
Bull
ACN trends higher to
$176.50
(+20.1% from $146.99)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisACN trades far below every fair-value anchor with elite quality and improving AI-narrative sentiment; after a brutal 6-month drawdown, mean reversion toward the $180 composite fair value should unfold gradually, with early lift from sentiment then value gravity taking over.
Invalidated ifA close below $119 bear scenario or loss of AI-reframe narrative momentum would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $146.99 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 27, 2026 | — | $146.99 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 10, 2026 | $129.58–$164.40 typical range · internal point $150.25 | — | ±11.8% | 6/10 | Sentiment reframe and undervaluation call lift shares |
| What actually happened: closed $175.72 on Aug 7, 2026 = +19.6% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 17.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 27, 2026 | $121.75–$172.23 typical range · internal point $153.80 | — | ±17.2% | 6/10 | Continued bargain-hunting flows below $155 attractive line |
| 2 months | Sep 27, 2026 | $158.50 | — | +7.8% | 5/10 | Value recognition builds, neutral regime allows drift up |
| 3 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $163.00 | — | +10.9% | 5/10 | Earnings print likely beats streak extends confidence |
| 4 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $167.50 | — | +14.0% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $172.00 | — | +17.0% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing into quality laggards |
| 6 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $176.50 | — | +20.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $181.60 (+23.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $146.99 |
| Composite fair value | $182.06 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $210.77 |
| DCF fair value | $213.75 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $171.91 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $155.00 |
| Value net score | +66 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 47.9% 3m 59.5% 6m 53.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.47 3m -0.86 5m -0.41 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -48.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 12, 2026 | 13d behind | ACN-20260712-031110-e298 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260725-173856-4de0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260725-173856-4de0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260725-173856-4de0 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260725-173856-4de0 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260725-172920-cb82 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260725-172920-cb82 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
5 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $185.26 | $205.75 | +11.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $165.76 | $186.00 | +12.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $146.99 | $176.50 | +20.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.86 | $172.00 | +22.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $135.23 | $209.98 | +55.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.