Made on
Jul 28, 2026
Price at call
$571.03
6-month call
Bear -8.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$525.00
Great value below
$430.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.1% to $525.00
Predicted High
$567.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$525.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 28, 2026 12:37 am
Bear
MSCI trends lower to
$525.00
(-8.1% from $571.03)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisMSCI trades well above every fair-value anchor, but its franchise quality and lack of near-term catalyst keep the fade gradual. Risk-off regime and value gravity pressure the tape over the six-month window, converging toward but not fully reaching intrinsic value.
Invalidated ifA break above 600 on strong volume or a re-rating to risk-on regime with MSCI outperforming would falsify the drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $571.03 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 28, 2026 | — | $571.03 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 11, 2026 | $530.15–$611.91 typical range · internal point $567.50 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Risk-off tape and no catalyst; mild drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $563.08 on Aug 10, 2026 = -1.4% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.2%: inside the band · S&P +4.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 28, 2026 | $511.78–$630.28 typical range · internal point $560.00 | — | ±10.4% | 6/10 | Continued regime pressure, quality bid softens |
| What actually happened: closed $569.15 on Aug 27, 2026 = -0.3% vs the call (predicted -1.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±10.4%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 28, 2026 | $548.00 | — | -4.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting; premium compresses |
| What actually happened: closed $551.36 on Sep 25, 2026 = -3.4% vs the call (predicted -4.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P +4.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $542.00 | — | -5.1% | 5/10 | Earnings window; likely beat but rich multiple caps upside |
| 4 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $536.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, drift toward baseline continues |
| 5 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $530.00 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax considerations on winners |
| 6 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $525.00 | — | -8.1% | 3/10 | Six-month convergence toward deterministic anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $529.93 (-7.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $571.03 |
| Composite fair value | $289.42 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $330.22 |
| DCF fair value | $291.05 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $422.85 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $430.00 |
| Value net score | -86 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.4% 3m 35.9% 6m 35.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.68 3m -0.01 5m 0.21 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | MSCI-20260728-000553-c61e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSCI-20260728-002713-03aa |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSCI-20260728-002713-03aa |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSCI-20260728-002713-03aa |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | MSCI-20260728-000553-c61e |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 28, 2026 | freshest | MSCI-20260728-000553-c61e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $551.73 | $520.00 | -5.8% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Jul 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $571.03 | $525.00 | -8.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.