Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$116.41
6-month call
Bear -24.4%
Target by Jan 2027
$88.00
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-24.4% to $88.00
Predicted High
$110.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$88.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-24.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:41 am
Bear
SPCX trends lower to
$88.00
(-24.4% from $116.41)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisSPCX is a post-IPO SpaceX proxy with deeply negative value and sentiment scores, a jittery risk-off tape, and a beta near 4.5 that amplifies every macro wobble. With no earnings catalyst and air actively leaving the narrative, the path should drift lower with a bounce attempt that fails, ending well below current levels but far above the bear anchor.
Invalidated ifA decisive close back above $130 on heavy volume, or a broad risk-on regime flip, would falsify the continued bleed.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $116.41 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $116.41 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $90.67–$142.15 typical range · internal point $110.50 | — | ±22.1% | 6/10 | Momentum and sentiment bleed continues in neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $133.29 on Aug 11, 2026 = +14.5% vs the call (predicted -5.1%) · direction MISS (called down, was up) · off by 19.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±22.1%: inside the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $79.11–$153.71 typical range · internal point $105.00 | — | ±32.0% | 6/10 | High-beta selling pressure, no catalyst to stop drift |
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $101.00 | — | -13.2% | 5/10 | Post-IPO lockup and narrative fatigue weigh further |
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $108.00 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | Oversold bounce attempt on any macro relief |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $98.00 | — | -15.8% | 4/10 | Bounce fades, value gravity toward attractive zone reasserts |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $92.00 | — | -21.0% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling in weak high-beta names |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $88.00 | — | -24.4% | 3/10 | Slow grind toward fair-value zone continues into 2027 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $116.41 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -100 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -41 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 63.6% 3m 111.0% 6m 111.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 7.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.46 3m 4.47 5m 4.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -13.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | SPCX-20260729-000735-6b07 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPCX-20260729-002903-b4d8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPCX-20260729-002903-b4d8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPCX-20260729-002903-b4d8 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPCX-20260729-002903-b4d8 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | SPCX-20260729-000735-6b07 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | SPCX-20260729-000735-6b07 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $116.41 | $88.00 | -24.4% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.