GOOGL
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Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$333.71
6-month call
Neutral +4.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$348.00
Great value below
$270.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+4.3% to $348.00
Predicted High
$348.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$318.50
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:45 am
Neutral
GOOGL trends range-bound to
$348.00
(+4.3% from $333.71)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisGOOGL sits at $333 with strong quality but a heavy sentiment overhang from AI-capex panic and rotation to safety. Near-term drift is lower as the neutral regime and negative sentiment dominate, but the cash-fortress fundamentals and earnings beat streak should stabilize the name and allow a modest recovery over the back half of the window.
Invalidated ifA close below $290 on sustained volume, or a break above $360 early, would invalidate the dip-then-recover shape.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $333.71 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $333.71 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $308.20–$359.22 typical range · internal point $328.50 | — | ±7.6% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag and neutral regime pressure continue near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $343.80 on Aug 11, 2026 = +3.0% vs the call (predicted -1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.6%: inside the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $296.74–$370.68 typical range · internal point $322.00 | — | ±11.1% | 6/10 | AI-capex fears and rotation to safety weigh further |
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $318.50 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Trough zone as bearish sentiment peaks pre-earnings |
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $330.00 | — | -1.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely beats, stabilizing the tape |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $338.00 | — | +1.3% | 4/10 | Quality lens reasserts as panic fades |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $344.00 | — | +3.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors cash-rich mega-caps |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $348.00 | — | +4.3% | 3/10 | Gradual recovery toward fair-value gravity |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $333.71 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.3% 3m 38.4% 6m 33.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.76 3m 1.55 5m 1.54 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | GOOGL-20260729-000735-155a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260729-002903-59d7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260729-002903-59d7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260729-002903-59d7 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260729-002903-59d7 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | GOOGL-20260729-000735-155a |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | GOOGL-20260729-000735-155a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.