Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$392.31
6-month call
Bull +8.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$425.00
Great value below
$330.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.3% to $425.00
Predicted High
$425.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$402.00
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:51 am
Bull
TSM trends higher to
$425.00
(+8.3% from $392.31)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTSM rides the AI-foundry monopoly narrative and record-earnings momentum higher over the next 1-2 months, but rich valuation (attractive only below $330) and high beta in a neutral regime cap upside and invite a mild consolidation into year-end before resuming a modest uptrend as 2027 capex/AI cycle visibility improves.
Invalidated ifBreak below $355 on heavy volume, or a major AI-capex cut announcement from a hyperscaler customer, would falsify the continued uptrend thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $392.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $392.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $354.89–$429.73 typical range · internal point $402.00 | — | ±9.5% | 7/10 | Sentiment momentum and AI narrative extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $422.06 on Aug 11, 2026 = +7.6% vs the call (predicted +2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 5.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.5%: inside the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $338.08–$446.54 typical range · internal point $410.00 | — | ±13.8% | 6/10 | Record-earnings afterglow and foundry monopoly bid persist |
| What actually happened: closed $417.56 on Aug 28, 2026 = +6.4% vs the call (predicted +4.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.8%: inside the band · S&P +5.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $418.00 | — | +6.5% | 5/10 | Approaching Q3 print anticipation lifts high-beta name |
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $412.00 | — | +5.0% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion; valuation gravity trims froth |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $405.00 | — | +3.2% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on 18% trailing gain |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $415.00 | — | +5.8% | 4/10 | Santa rally and 2027 capex guides refresh optimism |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $425.00 | — | +8.3% | 3/10 | AI cycle visibility into 2027 supports modest re-rating |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 5 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $392.31 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -29 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.8% 3m 47.9% 6m 45.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.43 3m 2.71 5m 2.44 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260729-000735-c1ab |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260729-002903-94f8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260729-002903-94f8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260729-002903-94f8 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260729-002903-94f8 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260729-000735-c1ab |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260729-000735-c1ab |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.