Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$1,210.02
6-month call
Bear -5.4%
Target by Jan 2027
$1,145.00
Great value below
$950.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.4% to $1,145.00
Predicted High
$1,188.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$1,140.00
at 4 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:08 am
Bear
LLY trends lower to
$1,145.00
(-5.4% from $1,210.02)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisLLY trades far above the only available anchor (bear scenario ~$435) with negative value lens and softening GLP-1 narrative, but quality is elite and beta is very low, cushioning near-term downside. Expect modest drift lower over 6 months as competitive pressure compresses the premium, with a stress-regime wobble first and stabilization as the name finds defensive bid.
Invalidated ifA decisive GLP-1 competitive win (Phase 3 obesity readout, tirzepatide label expansion) or LLY breaking above $1,300 on volume invalidates the fade; conversely a break under $1,050 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,210.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $1,210.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $1,123.74–$1,296.30 typical range · internal point $1,188.00 | — | ±7.1% | 6/10 | Stress regime bleeds low-beta defensive slightly lower |
| What actually happened: closed $1,220.28 on Aug 12, 2026 = +0.9% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.1%: inside the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $1,084.98–$1,335.06 typical range · internal point $1,175.00 | — | ±10.3% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag continues, no catalyst to reprice |
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $1,160.00 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | GLP-1 competitor headlines pressure premium multiple |
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $1,150.00 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | Q3 print window; quality supports but value gap weighs |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $1,140.00 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Gradual mean reversion toward fair-value gravity |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $1,155.00 | — | -4.5% | 3/10 | Year-end defensive rotation offers modest bid |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $1,145.00 | — | -5.4% | 3/10 | Path uncertain; value overhang persists into 2027 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 5 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,210.02 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -72 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +86 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.9% 3m 35.8% 6m 38.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.45 3m 0.23 5m 0.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 16.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | LLY-20260730-001020-b9e7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260730-005820-720e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260730-005820-720e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260730-005820-720e |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-LLY-20260730-005820-720e |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | LLY-20260730-001020-b9e7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | LLY-20260730-001020-b9e7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $1,210.02 | $1,145.00 | -5.4% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.