ASML
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ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$1,550.69
6-month call
Neutral +2.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$1,590.00
Great value below
$1,250.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+2.5% to $1,590.00
Predicted High
$1,615.00
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$1,395.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:11 am
Neutral
ASML trends range-bound to
$1,590.00
(+2.5% from $1,550.69)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisASML enters a stressed tape with sentiment fully bearish on China DUV curbs and AI capex doubts, while quality remains pristine and value lens flags attractive only below $1,250. Near-term drift is down under high beta and VIX pressure, but no earnings catalyst until later fall; expect a stabilization and partial recovery as the AI capex narrative gets re-tested into year-end orders commentary.
Invalidated ifBreak and hold below $1,250 on confirmed China DUV export ban, or reclaim above $1,700 on strong bookings guide.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,550.69 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $1,550.69 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $1,370.60–$1,730.78 typical range · internal point $1,485.00 | — | ±11.6% | 6/10 | Stress regime and negative sentiment pressure high-beta name |
| What actually happened: closed $1,810.07 on Aug 12, 2026 = +16.7% vs the call (predicted -4.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 21.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $1,289.72–$1,811.66 typical range · internal point $1,430.00 | — | ±16.8% | 6/10 | China DUV headline overhang, sellers press into thin August tape |
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $1,395.00 | — | -10.0% | 5/10 | Capitulation zone near value-attractive band, sentiment washout |
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $1,470.00 | — | -5.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, bookings hope stabilizes shares |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $1,560.00 | — | +0.6% | 4/10 | Post-earnings relief if guide holds, quality re-rates |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $1,615.00 | — | +4.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into 2027 AI capex refresh |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $1,590.00 | — | +2.5% | 3/10 | January consolidation, macro and China risk still capping upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,550.69 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 53.4% 3m 58.3% 6m 52.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.53 3m 2.96 5m 2.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 6.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ASML-20260730-001020-ecdd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260730-005820-a83f |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260730-005820-a83f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260730-005820-a83f |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260730-005820-a83f |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ASML-20260730-001020-ecdd |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ASML-20260730-001020-ecdd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $1,883.12 | $1,720.00 | -8.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $1,550.69 | $1,590.00 | +2.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.