Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$70.37
6-month call
Bull +10.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$77.40
Great value below
$60.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+10.0% to $77.40
Predicted High
$77.40
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$69.20
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:06 am
Bull
UBER trends higher to
$77.40
(+10.0% from $70.37)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisUBER trades below composite fair value with quality/DCF support, but weak recent momentum and mildly negative sentiment cap near-term upside. Expect a shallow drift lower or flat over the first weeks, then gradual mean reversion toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity and a neutral regime allow multiple repair.
Invalidated ifA sustained break below $60 (value trigger held) or above $85 without earnings catalyst would falsify the gradual-recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $70.37 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $70.37 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $64.86–$75.88 typical range · internal point $69.80 | — | ±7.8% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, weak momentum, slight sentiment drag persists |
| What actually happened: closed $75.88 on Aug 13, 2026 = +7.8% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $62.39–$78.35 typical range · internal point $69.20 | — | ±11.3% | 6/10 | Continued drift as no catalyst; beta-driven chop |
| What actually happened: closed $78.82 on Aug 28, 2026 = +12.0% vs the call (predicted -1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 13.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $71.50 | — | +1.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning improves modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $68.51 on Sep 30, 2026 = -2.6% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.3 pp · accuracy 8/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $73.80 | — | +4.9% | 5/10 | Earnings reaction lifts toward DCF fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $75.20 | — | +6.9% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite anchor gains traction |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $76.50 | — | +8.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, quality lens supports drift up |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $77.40 | — | +10.0% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $77.27 (+9.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $70.37 |
| Composite fair value | $89.39 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $109.94 |
| DCF fair value | $72.67 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $184.80 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $60.00 |
| Value net score | -1 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +54 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 33.6% 3m 39.3% 6m 36.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.15 3m 0.72 5m 0.87 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | UBER-20260730-213231-0240 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260730-223845-acd0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260730-223845-acd0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260730-223845-acd0 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UBER-20260730-223845-acd0 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | UBER-20260730-222112-ceff |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | UBER-20260730-222112-ceff |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.